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Register a new userA Scalable Gradient-Free Method for Bayesian Experimental Design with Implicit Models
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Bayesian experimental design (BED) is to answer the question that how to choose designs that maximize the information gathering. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling is possible, conventional BED methods have difficulties in efficiently estimating the posterior distribution and maximizing the mutual information (MI) between data and parameters. Recent work proposed the use of gradient ascent to maximize a lower bound on MI to deal with these issues. However, the approach requires a sampling path to compute the pathwise gradient of the MI lower bound with respect to the design variables, and such a pathwise gradient is usually inaccessible for implicit models. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages recent advances in stochastic approximate gradient ascent incorporated with a smoothed variational MI estimator for efficient and robust BED. Without the necessity of pathwise gradients, our approach allows the design process to be achieved through a unified procedure with an approximate gradient for implicit models. Several experiments show that our approach outperforms baseline methods, and significantly improves the scalability of BED in high-dimensional problems.
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Bayesian experimental design (BED) aims at designing an experiment to maximize the information gathering from the collected data. The optimal design is usually achieved by maximizing the mutual information (MI) between the data and the model parameters. When the analytical expression of the MI is unavailable, e.g., having implicit models with intractable data distributions, a neural network-based lower bound of the MI was recently proposed and a gradient ascent method was used to maximize the lower bound. However, the approach in Kleinegesse et al., 2020 requires a pathwise sampling path to compute the gradient of the MI lower bound with respect to the design variables, and such a pathwise sampling path is usually inaccessible for implicit models. In this work, we propose a hybrid gradient approach that leverages recent advances in variational MI estimator and evolution strategies (ES) combined with black-box stochastic gradient ascent (SGA) to maximize the MI lower bound. This allows the design process to be achieved through a unified scalable procedure for implicit models without sampling path gradients. Several experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly improves the scalability of BED for implicit models in high-dimensional design space.
In this paper we address the following question: Can we approximately sample from a Bayesian posterior distribution if we are only allowed to touch a small mini-batch of data-items for every sample we generate?. An algorithm based on the Langevin equation with stochastic gradients (SGLD) was previously proposed to solve this, but its mixing rate was slow. By leveraging the Bayesian Central Limit Theorem, we extend the SGLD algorithm so that at high mixing rates it will sample from a normal approximation of the posterior, while for slow mixing rates it will mimic the behavior of SGLD with a pre-conditioner matrix. As a bonus, the proposed algorithm is reminiscent of Fisher scoring (with stochastic gradients) and as such an efficient optimizer during burn-in.
Black-box problems are common in real life like structural design, drug experiments, and machine learning. When optimizing black-box systems, decision-makers always consider multiple performances and give the final decision by comprehensive evaluations. Motivated by such practical needs, we focus on constrained black-box problems where the objective and constraints lack known special structure, and evaluations are expensive and even with noise. We develop a novel constrained Bayesian optimization approach based on the knowledge gradient method ($c-rm{KG}$). A new acquisition function is proposed to determine the next batch of samples considering optimality and feasibility. An unbiased estimator of the gradient of the new acquisition function is derived to implement the $c-rm{KG}$ approach.
Tuning complex machine learning systems is challenging. Machine learning typically requires to set hyperparameters, be it regularization, architecture, or optimization parameters, whose tuning is critical to achieve good predictive performance. To democratize access to machine learning systems, it is essential to automate the tuning. This paper presents Amazon SageMaker Automatic Model Tuning (AMT), a fully managed system for gradient-free optimization at scale. AMT finds the best version of a trained machine learning model by repeatedly evaluating it with different hyperparameter configurations. It leverages either random search or Bayesian optimization to choose the hyperparameter values resulting in the best model, as measured by the metric chosen by the user. AMT can be used with built-in algorithms, custom algorithms, and Amazon SageMaker pre-built containers for machine learning frameworks. We discuss the core functionality, system architecture, our design principles, and lessons learned. We also describe more advanced features of AMT, such as automated early stopping and warm-starting, showing in experiments their benefits to users.
We use the theory of normal variance-mean mixtures to derive a data augmentation scheme for models that include gamma functions. Our methodology applies to many situations in statistics and machine learning, including Multinomial-Dirichlet distributions, Negative binomial regression, Poisson-Gamma hierarchical models, Extreme value models, to name but a few. All of those models include a gamma function which does not admit a natural conjugate prior distribution providing a significant challenge to inference and prediction. To provide a data augmentation strategy, we construct and develop the theory of the class of Exponential Reciprocal Gamma distributions. This allows scalable EM and MCMC algorithms to be developed. We illustrate our methodology on a number of examples, including gamma shape inference, negative binomial regression and Dirichlet allocation. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.
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