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Register a new userRecursive contact tracing in Reed-Frost epidemic models
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We introduce a Reed-Frost epidemic model with recursive contact tracing and asymptomatic transmission. This generalizes the branching-process model introduced by the authors in a previous work [arxiv:2004.07237] to finite populations and general contact networks. We simulate the model numerically for two representative examples, the complete graph and the square lattice. On both networks, we observe clear signatures of a contact-tracing phase transition from an epidemic phase to an immune phase as contact-network coverage is increased. We verify that away from the singular line of perfect tracing, the finite-size scaling of the contact-tracing phase transition on each network lies in the corresponding percolation universality class. Finally, we use the model to quantify the efficacy of recursive contact-tracing in regimes where epidemic spread is not contained.
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The recent outbreak of COVID-19 poses a serious threat to peoples lives. Epidemic control strategies have also caused damage to the economy by cutting off humans daily commute. In this paper, we develop an Individual-based Reinforcement Learning Epidemic Control Agent (IDRLECA) to search for smart epidemic control strategies that can simultaneously minimize infections and the cost of mobility intervention. IDRLECA first hires an infection probability model to calculate the current infection probability of each individual. Then, the infection probabilities together with individuals health status and movement information are fed to a novel GNN to estimate the spread of the virus through human contacts. The estimated risks are used to further support an RL agent to select individual-level epidemic-control actions. The training of IDRLECA is guided by a specially designed reward function considering both the cost of mobility intervention and the effectiveness of epidemic control. Moreover, we design a constraint for control-action selection that eases its difficulty and further improve exploring efficiency. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that IDRLECA can suppress infections at a very low level and retain more than 95% of human mobility.
Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been paid to analyzing the privacy and ethical risks of the associated mobile applications, so far much less research has been devoted to optimizing their performance and assessing their impact on the mitigation of the epidemic. We develop Bayesian inference methods to estimate the risk that an individual is infected. This inference is based on the list of his recent contacts and their own risk levels, as well as personal information such as results of tests or presence of syndromes. We propose to use probabilistic risk estimation in order to optimize testing and quarantining strategies for the control of an epidemic. Our results show that in some range of epidemic spreading (typically when the manual tracing of all contacts of infected people becomes practically impossible, but before the fraction of infected people reaches the scale where a lock-down becomes unavoidable), this inference of individuals at risk could be an efficient way to mitigate the epidemic. Our approaches translate into fully distributed algorithms that only require communication between individuals who have recently been in contact. Such communication may be encrypted and anonymized and thus compatible with privacy preserving standards. We conclude that probabilistic risk estimation is capable to enhance performance of digital contact tracing and should be considered in the currently developed mobile applications.
This work describes a simple agent model for the spread of an epidemic outburst, with special emphasis on mobility and geographical considerations, which we characterize via statistical mechanics and numerical simulations. As the mobility is decreased, a percolation phase transition is found separating a free-propagation phase in which the outburst spreads without finding spatial barriers and a localized phase in which the outburst dies off. Interestingly, the number of infected agents is subject to maximal fluctuations at the transition point, building upon the unpredictability of the evolution of an epidemic outburst. Our model also lends itself to test with vaccination schedules. Indeed, it has been suggested that if a vaccine is available but scarce it is convenient to select carefully the vaccination program to maximize the chances of halting the outburst. We discuss and evaluate several schemes, with special interest on how the percolation transition point can be shifted, allowing for higher mobility without epidemiological impact.
We study a phase transition in parameter learning of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We do this by generating sequences of observed symbols from given discrete HMMs with uniformly distributed transition probabilities and a noise level encoded in the output probabilities. By using the Baum-Welch (BW) algorithm, an Expectation-Maximization algorithm from the field of Machine Learning, we then try to estimate the parameters of each investigated realization of an HMM. We study HMMs with n=4, 8 and 16 states. By changing the amount of accessible learning data and the noise level, we observe a phase-transition-like change in the performance of the learning algorithm. For bigger HMMs and more learning data, the learning behavior improves tremendously below a certain threshold in the noise strength. For a noise level above the threshold, learning is not possible. Furthermore, we use an overlap parameter applied to the results of a maximum-a-posteriori (Viterbi) algorithm to investigate the accuracy of the hidden state estimation around the phase transition.
We study the extremal properties of a stochastic process $x_t$ defined by a Langevin equation $dot{x}_t=sqrt{2 D_0 V(B_t)},xi_t$, where $xi_t$ is a Gaussian white noise with zero mean, $D_0$ is a constant scale factor, and $V(B_t)$ is a stochastic diffusivity (noise strength), which itself is a functional of independent Brownian motion $B_t$. We derive exact, compact expressions for the probability density functions (PDFs) of the first passage time (FPT) $t$ from a fixed location $x_0$ to the origin for three different realisations of the stochastic diffusivity: a cut-off case $V(B_t) =Theta(B_t)$ (Model I), where $Theta(x)$ is the Heaviside theta function; a Geometric Brownian Motion $V(B_t)=exp(B_t)$ (Model II); and a case with $V(B_t)=B_t^2$ (Model III). We realise that, rather surprisingly, the FPT PDF has exactly the Levy-Smirnov form (specific for standard Brownian motion) for Model II, which concurrently exhibits a strongly anomalous diffusion. For Models I and III either the left or right tails (or both) have a different functional dependence on time as compared to the Levy-Smirnov density. In all cases, the PDFs are broad such that already the first moment does not exist. Similar results are obtained in three dimensions for the FPT PDF to an absorbing spherical target.
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