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Register a new userUnderstanding the onset of hot streaks across artistic, cultural, and scientific careers
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Hot streaks dominate the main impact of creative careers. Despite their ubiquitous nature across a wide range of creative domains, it remains unclear if there is any regularity underlying the beginning of hot streaks. Here, we develop computational methods using deep learning and network science and apply them to novel, large-scale datasets tracing the career outputs of artists, film directors, and scientists, allowing us to build high-dimensional representations of the artworks, films, and scientific publications they produce. By examining individuals career trajectories within the underlying creative space, we find that across all three domains, individuals tend to explore diverse styles or topics before their hot streak, but become notably more focused in what they work on after the hot streak begins. Crucially, we find that hot streaks are associated with neither exploration nor exploitation behavior in isolation, but a particular sequence of exploration followed by exploitation, where the transition from exploration to exploitation closely traces the onset of a hot streak. Overall, these results unveil among the first identifiable regularity underlying the onset of hot streaks, which appears universal across diverse creative domains, suggesting that a sequential view of creative strategies that balances experimentation and implementation may be particularly powerful for producing long-lasting contributions, which may have broad implications for identifying and nurturing creative talents.
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There is extensive, yet fragmented, evidence of gender differences in academia suggesting that women are under-represented in most scientific disciplines, publish fewer articles throughout a career, and their work acquires fewer citations. Here, we offer a comprehensive picture of longitudinal gender discrepancies in performance through a bibliometric analysis of academic careers by reconstructing the complete publication history of over 1.5 million gender-identified authors whose publishing career ended between 1955 and 2010, covering 83 countries and 13 disciplines. We find that, paradoxically, the increase of participation of women in science over the past 60 years was accompanied by an increase of gender differences in both productivity and impact. Most surprisingly though, we uncover two gender invariants, finding that men and women publish at a comparable annual rate and have equivalent career-wise impact for the same size body of work. Finally, we demonstrate that differences in dropout rates and career length explain a large portion of the reported career-wise differences in productivity and impact. This comprehensive picture of gender inequality in academia can help rephrase the conversation around the sustainability of womens careers in academia, with important consequences for institutions and policy makers.
In studies of cultural differentiation, the joint mechanisms of homophily and influence have been able to explain how distinct cultural groups can form. While these mechanisms normally lead to cultural convergence, increased levels of heterogeneity can allow them to produce global diversity. However, this emergent cultural diversity has proven to be unstable in the face of cultural drift- small errors or innovations that allow cultures to change from within. We develop a model of cultural differentiation that combines the traditional mechanisms of homophily and influence with a third mechanism of 2network homophily, in which network structure co-evolves with cultural interaction. We show that if social ties are allowed to change with cultural influence, a complex relationship between heterogeneity and cultural diversity is revealed, in which increased heterogeneity can reduce cultural group formation while simultaneously increasing social connectedness. Our results show that in certain regions of the parameter space these co-evolutionary dynamics can lead to patterns of cultural diversity that are stable in the presence of cultural drift.
Reputation is an important social construct in science, which enables informed quality assessments of both publications and careers of scientists in the absence of complete systemic information. However, the relation between reputation and career growth of an individual remains poorly understood, despite recent proliferation of quantitative research evaluation methods. Here we develop an original framework for measuring how a publications citation rate $Delta c$ depends on the reputation of its central author $i$, in addition to its net citation count $c$. To estimate the strength of the reputation effect, we perform a longitudinal analysis on the careers of 450 highly-cited scientists, using the total citations $C_{i}$ of each scientist as his/her reputation measure. We find a citation crossover $c_{times}$ which distinguishes the strength of the reputation effect. For publications with $c < c_{times}$, the authors reputation is found to dominate the annual citation rate. Hence, a new publication may gain a significant early advantage corresponding to roughly a 66% increase in the citation rate for each tenfold increase in $C_{i}$. However, the reputation effect becomes negligible for highly cited publications meaning that for $cgeq c_{times}$ the citation rate measures scientific impact more transparently. In addition we have developed a stochastic reputation model, which is found to reproduce numerous statistical observations for real careers, thus providing insight into the microscopic mechanisms underlying cumulative advantage in science.
In the field of astronomy, Maunakea is known as a prestigious site for observing and science. In Native Hawaiian culture, Maunakea is revered as the connection between past, present, and future generations and their ancestral lands of Hawaii. We have reached a juncture at which it is necessary to allow and enable Native Hawaiians to pursue careers in astronomy, especially on Maunakea. This paper serves to tell the accounts of four Kanaka astronomers and raise awareness of the barriers they have faced while pursuing astronomy careers. The authors identify issues that the community faces due to the disconnect between astronomy and Hawaii communities and propose resolutions to lead the way forward.
We employ an agent-based model for cultural dynamics to investigate the effects of spatial heterogeneities on the collective behavior of a social system. We introduce heterogeneity as a random distribution of defects or imperfections in a two-dimensional lattice. Two types of defects are considered separately: obstacles that represent geographic features, and opinion leaders, described as agents exerting unidirectional influence on other agents. In both cases, we characterize two collective phases on the space of parameters of the system, given by the density of defects and a quantity expressing the number of available states: one ordered phase, consisting of a large homogeneous group; and a disordered phase, where many small cultural groups coexist. In the case of leaders, the homogeneous state corresponds to their state. We find that a high enough density of obstacles contributes to cultural diversity in the system. On the other hand, we find a nontrivial effect when opinion leaders are distributed in the system: if their density is greater than some threshold value, leaders are no longer efficient in imposing their state to the population, but they actually promote multiculturality. In this situation, we uncover that leaders, as well as obstacles, serve as locations for the formation of boundaries and segregation between different cultural groups. Moreover, a lower density of leaders than obstacles is needed to induce multiculturality in the system.
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