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Register a new userVerification of an agent-based disease model of human mycobacterium tuberculosis infection
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Cristina Curreli
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Agent-Based Models are a powerful class of computational models widely used to simulate complex phenomena in many different application areas. However, one of the most critical aspects, poorly investigated in the literature, regards an important step of the model credibility assessment: solution verification. This study overcomes this limitation by proposing a general verification framework for Agent-Based Models that aims at evaluating the numerical errors associated with the model. A step-by-step procedure, which consists of two main verification studies (deterministic and stochastic model verification), is described in detail and applied to a specific mission critical scenario: the quantification of the numerical approximation error for UISS-TB, an ABM of the human immune system developed to predict the progression of pulmonary tuberculosis. Results provide indications on the possibility to use the proposed model verification workflow to systematically identify and quantify numerical approximation errors associated with UISS-TB and, in general, with any other ABMs.
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Magombedze and Mulder in 2013 studied the gene regulatory system of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (Mtb) by partitioning this into three subsystems based on putative gene function and role in dormancy/latency development. Each subsystem, in the form of S-system, is represented by an embedded chemical reaction network (CRN), defined by a species subset and a reaction subset induced by the set of digraph vertices of the subsystem. For the embedded networks of S-system, we showed interesting structural properties and proved that all S-system CRNs (with at least two species) are discordant. Analyzing the subsystems as subnetworks, where arcs between vertices belonging to different subsystems are retained, we formed a digraph homomorphism from the corresponding subnetworks to the embedded networks. Lastly, we explored the modularity concept of CRN in the context of digraph.
We investigate the rates of drug resistance acquisition in a natural population using molecular epidemiological data from Bolivia. First, we study the rate of direct acquisition of double resistance from the double sensitive state within patients and compare it to the rates of evolution to single resistance. In particular, we address whether or not double resistance can evolve directly from a double sensitive state within a given host. Second, we aim to understand whether the differences in mutation rates to rifampicin and isoniazid resistance translate to the epidemiological scale. Third, we estimate the proportion of MDR TB cases that are due to the transmission of MDR strains compared to acquisition of resistance through evolution. To address these problems we develop a model of TB transmission in which we track the evolution of resistance to two drugs and the evolution of VNTR loci. However, the available data is incomplete, in that it is recorded only {for a fraction of the population and} at a single point in time. The likelihood function induced by the proposed model is computationally prohibitive to evaluate and accordingly impractical to work with directly. We therefore approach statistical inference using approximate Bayesian computation techniques.
EC funded STriTuVaD project aims to test, through a phase IIb clinical trial, two of the most advanced therapeutic vaccines against tuberculosis. In parallel, we have extended the Universal Immune System Simulator to include all relevant determinants of such clinical trial, to establish its predictive accuracy against the individual patients recruited in the trial, to use it to generate digital patients and predict their response to the HRT being tested, and to combine them to the observations made on physical patients using a new in silico-augmented clinical trial approach that uses a Bayesian adaptive design. This approach, where found effective could drastically reduce the cost of innovation in this critical sector of public healthcare. One of the most challenging task is to develop a methodology to reproduce biological diversity of the subjects that have to be simulated, i.e., provide an appropriate strategy for the generation of libraries of digital patients. This has been achieved through the the creation of the initial immune system repertoire in a stochastic way, and though the identification of a vector of features that combines both biological and pathophysiological parameters that personalize the digital patient to reproduce the physiology and the pathophysiology of the subject.
Models of disease spreading are critical for predicting infection growth in a population and evaluating public health policies. However, standard models typically represent the dynamics of disease transmission between individuals using macroscopic parameters that do not accurately represent person-to-person variability. To address this issue, we present a dynamic network model that provides a straightforward way to incorporate both disease transmission dynamics at the individual scale as well as the full spatiotemporal history of infection at the population scale. We find that disease spreads through a social network as a traveling wave of infection, followed by a traveling wave of recovery, with the onset and dynamics of spreading determined by the interplay between disease transmission and recovery. We use these insights to develop a scaling theory that predicts the dynamics of infection for diverse diseases and populations. Furthermore, we show how spatial heterogeneities in susceptibility to infection can either exacerbate or quell the spread of disease, depending on its infectivity. Ultimately, our dynamic network approach provides a simple way to model disease spreading that unifies previous findings and can be generalized to diverse diseases, containment strategies, seasonal conditions, and community structures.
We formulate a compartmental model for the propagation of a respiratory disease in a patchy environment. The patches are connected through the mobility of individuals, and we assume that disease transmission and recovery are possible during travel. Moreover, the migration terms are assumed to depend on the distance between patches and the perceived severity of the disease. The positivity and boundedness of the model solutions are discussed. We analytically show the existence and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Without human movement, the global stability of the endemic equilibrium point is also established using Lyapunov functions. We study three different network topologies numerically and find that underlying network structure is crucial for disease transmission. Further numerical simulations reveal that infection during travel has the potential to change the stability of disease-free equilibrium from stable to unstable. The coupling strength and transmission coefficients are also very crucial in disease propagation. Different exit screening scenarios indicate that the patch with the highest prevalence may have adverse effects but other patches will be benefited from exit screening. Furthermore, while studying the multi-strain dynamics, it is observed that two co-circulating strains will not persist simultaneously in the community but only one of the strains may persist in the long run. Transmission coefficients corresponding to the second strain are very crucial and show threshold like behavior with respect to the equilibrium density of the second strain.
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