Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userSTUaNet: Understanding uncertainty in spatiotemporal collective human mobility
129
0
0.0
(
0
)
Added by
Zhengyang Zhou
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
The high dynamics and heterogeneous interactions in the complicated urban systems have raised the issue of uncertainty quantification in spatiotemporal human mobility, to support critical decision-makings in risk-aware web applications such as urban event prediction where fluctuations are of significant interests. Given the fact that uncertainty quantifies the potential variations around prediction results, traditional learning schemes always lack uncertainty labels, and conventional uncertainty quantification approaches mostly rely upon statistical estimations with Bayesian Neural Networks or ensemble methods. However, they have never involved any spatiotemporal evolution of uncertainties under various contexts, and also have kept suffering from the poor efficiency of statistical uncertainty estimation while training models with multiple times. To provide high-quality uncertainty quantification for spatiotemporal forecasting, we propose an uncertainty learning mechanism to simultaneously estimate internal data quality and quantify external uncertainty regarding various contextual interactions. To address the issue of lacking labels of uncertainty, we propose a hierarchical data turbulence scheme where we can actively inject controllable uncertainty for guidance, and hence provide insights to both uncertainty quantification and weak supervised learning. Finally, we re-calibrate and boost the prediction performance by devising a gated-based bridge to adaptively leverage the learned uncertainty into predictions. Extensive experiments on three real-world spatiotemporal mobility sets have corroborated the superiority of our proposed model in terms of both forecasting and uncertainty quantification.
rate research
Read More
Despite their importance for urban planning, traffic forecasting, and the spread of biological and mobile viruses, our understanding of the basic laws governing human motion remains limited thanks to the lack of tools to monitor the time resolved location of individuals. Here we study the trajectory of 100,000 anonymized mobile phone users whose position is tracked for a six month period. We find that in contrast with the random trajectories predicted by the prevailing Levy flight and random walk models, human trajectories show a high degree of temporal and spatial regularity, each individual being characterized by a time independent characteristic length scale and a significant probability to return to a few highly frequented locations. After correcting for differences in travel distances and the inherent anisotropy of each trajectory, the individual travel patterns collapse into a single spatial probability distribution, indicating that despite the diversity of their travel history, humans follow simple reproducible patterns. This inherent similarity in travel patterns could impact all phenomena driven by human mobility, from epidemic prevention to emergency response, urban planning and agent based modeling.
Predictive models for human mobility have important applications in many fields such as traffic control, ubiquitous computing and contextual advertisement. The predictive performance of models in literature varies quite broadly, from as high as 93% to as low as under 40%. In this work we investigate which factors influence the accuracy of next-place prediction, using a high-precision location dataset of more than 400 users for periods between 3 months and one year. We show that it is easier to achieve high accuracy when predicting the time-bin location than when predicting the next place. Moreover we demonstrate how the temporal and spatial resolution of the data can have strong influence on the accuracy of prediction. Finally we uncover that the exploration of new locations is an important factor in human mobility, and we measure that on average 20-25% of transitions are to new places, and approx. 70% of locations are visited only once. We discuss how these mechanisms are important factors limiting our ability to predict human mobility.
Understanding how people move in the urban area is important for solving urbanization issues, such as traffic management, urban planning, epidemic control, and communication network improvement. Leveraging recent availability of large amounts of diverse crowdsensed data, many studies have made contributions to this field in various aspects. They need proper review and summary. In this paper, therefore, we first review these recent studies with a proper taxonomy with corresponding examples. Then, based on the experience learnt from the studies, we provide a comprehensive tutorial for future research, which introduces and discusses popular crowdsensed data types, different human mobility subjects, and common data preprocessing and analysis methods. Special emphasis is made on the matching between data types and mobility subjects. Finally, we present two research projects as case studies to demonstrate the entire process of understanding urban human mobility through crowdsensed data in city-wide scale and building-wide scale respectively. Beyond demonstration purpose, the two case studies also make contributions to their category of certain crowdsensed data type and mobility subject.
We present a flexible framework for uncertainty principles in spectral graph theory. In this framework, general filter functions modeling the spatial and spectral localization of a graph signal can be incorporated. It merges several existing uncertainty relations on graphs, among others the Landau-Pollak principle describing the joint admissibility region of two projection operators, and uncertainty relations based on spectral and spatial spreads. Using theoretical and computational aspects of the numerical range of matrices, we are able to characterize and illustrate the shapes of the uncertainty curves and to study the space-frequency localization of signals inside the admissibility regions.
A fundamental question in adversarial machine learning is whether a robust classifier exists for a given task. A line of research has made progress towards this goal by studying concentration of measure, but without considering data labels. We argue that the standard concentration fails to fully characterize the intrinsic robustness of a classification problem, since it ignores data labels which are essential to any classification task. Building on a novel definition of label uncertainty, we empirically demonstrate that error regions induced by state-of-the-art models tend to have much higher label uncertainty compared with randomly-selected subsets. This observation motivates us to adapt a concentration estimation algorithm to account for label uncertainty, resulting in more accurate intrinsic robustness measures for benchmark image classification problems. We further provide empirical evidence showing that adding an abstain option for classifiers based on label uncertainty can help improve both the clean and robust accuracies of models.
suggested questions
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
