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Register a new userGraph-Based Equilibrium Metrics for Dynamic Supply-Demand Systems with Applications to Ride-sourcing Platforms
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Added by
Fan Zhou
Publication date
2021
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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How to dynamically measure the local-to-global spatio-temporal coherence between demand and supply networks is a fundamental task for ride-sourcing platforms, such as DiDi. Such coherence measurement is critically important for the quantification of the market efficiency and the comparison of different platform policies, such as dispatching. The aim of this paper is to introduce a graph-based equilibrium metric (GEM) to quantify the distance between demand and supply networks based on a weighted graph structure. We formulate GEM as the optimal objective value of an unbalanced transport problem, which can be efficiently solved by optimizing an equivalent linear programming. We examine how the GEM can help solve three operational tasks of ride-sourcing platforms. The first one is that GEM achieves up to 70.6% reduction in root-mean-square error over the second-best distance measurement for the prediction accuracy. The second one is that the use of GEM for designing order dispatching policy increases answer rate and drivers revenue for more than 1%, representing a huge improvement in number. The third one is that GEM is to serve as an endpoint for comparing different platform policies in AB test.
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Ride-hailing demand prediction is an essential task in spatial-temporal data mining. Accurate Ride-hailing demand prediction can help to pre-allocate resources, improve vehicle utilization and user experiences. Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) is commonly used to model the complicated irregular non-Euclidean spatial correlations. However, existing GCN-based ride-hailing demand prediction methods only assign the same importance to different neighbor regions, and maintain a fixed graph structure with static spatial relationships throughout the timeline when extracting the irregular non-Euclidean spatial correlations. In this paper, we propose the Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Graph Attention Network (STDGAT), a novel ride-hailing demand prediction method. Based on the attention mechanism of GAT, STDGAT extracts different pair-wise correlations to achieve the adaptive importance allocation for different neighbor regions. Moreover, in STDGAT, we design a novel time-specific commuting-based graph attention mode to construct a dynamic graph structure for capturing the dynamic time-specific spatial relationships throughout the timeline. Extensive experiments are conducted on a real-world ride-hailing demand dataset, and the experimental results demonstrate the significant improvement of our method on three evaluation metrics RMSE, MAPE and MAE over state-of-the-art baselines.
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