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Register a new userSynergetic Learning of Heterogeneous Temporal Sequences for Multi-Horizon Probabilistic Forecasting
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Longyuan Li
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Time-series is ubiquitous across applications, such as transportation, finance and healthcare. Time-series is often influenced by external factors, especially in the form of asynchronous events, making forecasting difficult. However, existing models are mainly designated for either synchronous time-series or asynchronous event sequence, and can hardly provide a synthetic way to capture the relation between them. We propose Variational Synergetic Multi-Horizon Network (VSMHN), a novel deep conditional generative model. To learn complex correlations across heterogeneous sequences, a tailored encoder is devised to combine the advances in deep point processes models and variational recurrent neural networks. In addition, an aligned time coding and an auxiliary transition scheme are carefully devised for batched training on unaligned sequences. Our model can be trained effectively using stochastic variational inference and generates probabilistic predictions with Monte-Carlo simulation. Furthermore, our model produces accurate, sharp and more realistic probabilistic forecasts. We also show that modeling asynchronous event sequences is crucial for multi-horizon time-series forecasting.
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We explore fixed-horizon temporal difference (TD) methods, reinforcement learning algorithms for a new kind of value function that predicts the sum of rewards over a $textit{fixed}$ number of future time steps. To learn the value function for horizon $h$, these algorithms bootstrap from the value function for horizon $h-1$, or some shorter horizon. Because no value function bootstraps from itself, fixed-horizon methods are immune to the stability problems that plague other off-policy TD methods using function approximation (also known as the deadly triad). Although fixed-horizon methods require the storage of additional value functions, this gives the agent additional predictive power, while the added complexity can be substantially reduced via parallel updates, shared weights, and $n$-step bootstrapping. We show how to use fixed-horizon value functions to solve reinforcement learning problems competitively with methods such as Q-learning that learn conventional value functions. We also prove convergence of fixed-horizon temporal difference methods with linear and general function approximation. Taken together, our results establish fixed-horizon TD methods as a viable new way of avoiding the stability problems of the deadly triad.
Although recent multi-task learning methods have shown to be effective in improving the generalization of deep neural networks, they should be used with caution for safety-critical applications, such as clinical risk prediction. This is because even if they achieve improved task-average performance, they may still yield degraded performance on individual tasks, which may be critical (e.g., prediction of mortality risk). Existing asymmetric multi-task learning methods tackle this negative transfer problem by performing knowledge transfer from tasks with low loss to tasks with high loss. However, using loss as a measure of reliability is risky since it could be a result of overfitting. In the case of time-series prediction tasks, knowledge learned for one task (e.g., predicting the sepsis onset) at a specific timestep may be useful for learning another task (e.g., prediction of mortality) at a later timestep, but lack of loss at each timestep makes it difficult to measure the reliability at each timestep. To capture such dynamically changing asymmetric relationships between tasks in time-series data, we propose a novel temporal asymmetric multi-task learning model that performs knowledge transfer from certain tasks/timesteps to relevant uncertain tasks, based on feature-level uncertainty. We validate our model on multiple clinical risk prediction tasks against various deep learning models for time-series prediction, which our model significantly outperforms, without any sign of negative transfer. Further qualitative analysis of learned knowledge graphs by clinicians shows that they are helpful in analyzing the predictions of the model. Our final code is available at https://github.com/anhtuan5696/TPAMTL.
This paper explores multi-armed bandit (MAB) strategies in very short horizon scenarios, i.e., when the bandit strategy is only allowed very few interactions with the environment. This is an understudied setting in the MAB literature with many applications in the context of games, such as player modeling. Specifically, we pursue three different ideas. First, we explore the use of regression oracles, which replace the simple average used in strategies such as epsilon-greedy with linear regression models. Second, we examine different exploration patterns such as forced exploration phases. Finally, we introduce a new variant of the UCB1 strategy called UCBT that has interesting properties and no tunable parameters. We present experimental results in a domain motivated by exergames, where the goal is to maximize a players daily steps. Our results show that the combination of epsilon-greedy or epsilon-decreasing with regression oracles outperforms all other tested strategies in the short horizon setting.
Meta-learning for few-shot learning entails acquiring a prior over previous tasks and experiences, such that new tasks be learned from small amounts of data. However, a critical challenge in few-shot learning is task ambiguity: even when a powerful prior can be meta-learned from a large number of prior tasks, a small dataset for a new task can simply be too ambiguous to acquire a single model (e.g., a classifier) for that task that is accurate. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic meta-learning algorithm that can sample models for a new task from a model distribution. Our approach extends model-agnostic meta-learning, which adapts to new tasks via gradient descent, to incorporate a parameter distribution that is trained via a variational lower bound. At meta-test time, our algorithm adapts via a simple procedure that injects noise into gradient descent, and at meta-training time, the model is trained such that this stochastic adaptation procedure produces samples from the approximate model posterior. Our experimental results show that our method can sample plausible classifiers and regressors in ambiguous few-shot learning problems. We also show how reasoning about ambiguity can also be used for downstream active learning problems.
Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would be difficult to develop a universal forecasting model dominating over other alternative models. Therefore, a novel multi-model combination (MMC) approach for short-term probabilistic wind generation forecasting is proposed in this paper to exploit the advantages of different forecasting models. The proposed approach can combine different forecasting models those provide different kinds of probability density functions to improve the probabilistic forecast accuracy. Three probabilistic forecasting models based on the sparse Bayesian learning, kernel density estimation and beta distribution fitting are used to form the combined model. The parameters of the MMC model are solved based on Bayesian framework. Numerical tests illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed MMC approach.
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