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Register a new userThe Source Locations of Major Flares and CMEs in the Emerging Active Regions
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Major flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) tend to originate from the compact polarity inversion lines (PILs) in the solar active regions (ARs). Recently, a scenario named as collisional shearing is proposed by citet{Chintzoglou_2019} to explain the phenomenon, which suggests that the collision between different emerging bipoles is able to form the compact PIL, driving the shearing and flux cancellation that are responsible to the subsequent large activities. In this work, through tracking the evolution of 19 emerging ARs from their birth until they produce the first major flares or CMEs, we investigated the source PILs of the activities, i.e., the active PILs, to explore the generality of collisional shearing. We find that none of the active PILs is the self PIL (sPIL) of a single bipole. We further find that 11 eruptions originate from the collisional PILs (cPILs) formed due to the collision between different bipoles, 6 from the conjoined systems of sPIL and cPIL, and 2 from the conjoined systems of sPIL and ePIL (external PIL between the AR and the nearby preexisting polarities). Collision accompanied by shearing and flux cancellation is found developing at all PILs prior to the eruptions, with $84%$ (16/19) cases having collisional length longer than 18~Mm. Moreover, we find that the magnitude of the flares is positively correlated with the collisional length of the active PILs, indicating that the intenser activities tend to originate from the PILs with severer collision. The results suggest that the collisional shearing, i.e., bipole-bipole interaction during the flux emergence is a common process in driving the major activities in emerging ARs.
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Ground level events (GLEs) occupy the high-energy end of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events. They are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares, but we still do not clearly understand the special conditions that produce these rare events. During Solar Cycle 23, a total of 16 GLEs were registered, using ground-based neutron monitor data. We first ask if these GLEs are clearly distinguishable from other SEP events observed from space. Setting aside possible difficulties in identifying all GLEs consistently, we then try to find observables which may unmistakably isolate these GLEs by studying the basic properties of the associated eruptions and the active regions (ARs) that produced them. It is found that neither the magnitudes of the CMEs and flares nor the complexities of the ARs give sufficient conditions for GLEs. It is possible to find CMEs, flares or ARs that are not associated with GLEs but that have more extreme properties than those associated with GLEs. We also try to evaluate the importance of magnetic field connection of the AR with Earth on the detection of GLEs and their onset times. Using the potential field source surface (PFSS) model, a half of the GLEs are found to be well-connected. However, the GLE onset time with respect to the onset of the associated flare and CME does not strongly depend on how well-connected the AR is. The GLE onset behavior may be largely determined by when and where the CME-driven shock develops. We could not relate the shocks responsible for the onsets of past GLEs with features in solar images, but the combined data from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) have the potential to change this for GLEs that may occur in the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24.
We studied the emergence process of 42 active region (ARs) by analyzing the time derivative, R(t), of the total unsigned flux. Line-of-sight magnetograms acquired by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) were used. A continuous piecewise linear fitting to the R(t)-profile was applied to detect an interval, dt_2, of nearly-constant R(t) covering one or several local maxima. The averaged over dt_2 magnitude of R(t) was accepted as an estimate of the maximal value of the flux growth rate, R_MAX, which varies in a range of (0.5-5)x10^20 Mx hour^-1 for active regions with the maximal total unsigned flux of (0.5-3)x10^22 Mx. The normalized flux growth rate, R_N, was defined under an assumption that the saturated total unsigned flux, F_MAX, equals unity. Out of 42 ARs in our initial list, 36 event were successfully fitted and they form two subsets (with a small overlap of 8 events): the ARs with a short (<13 hours) interval dt_2 and a high (>0.024 hour^-1) normalized flux emergence rate, R_N, form the rapid emergence event subset. The second subset consists of gradual emergence events and it is characterized by a long (>13 hours) interval dt_2 and a low R_N (<0.024 hour^-1). In diagrams of R_MAX plotted versus F_MAX, the events from different subsets are not overlapped and each subset displays an individual power law. The power law index derived from the entire ensemble of 36 events is 0.69+-0.10. The rapid emergence is consistent with a two-step emergence process of a single twisted flux tube. The gradual emergence is possibly related to a consecutive rising of several flux tubes emerging at nearly the same location in the photosphere.
SDO/AIA images the full solar disk in several EUV bands that are each sensitive to coronal plasma emissions of one or more specific temperatures. We observe that when isolated active regions (ARs) are on the disk, full-disk images in some of the coronal EUV channels show the outskirts of the AR as a dark moat surrounding the AR. Here we present seven specific examples, selected from time periods when there was only a single AR present on the disk. Visually, we observe the moat to be most prominent in the AIA 171 Angstrom band, which has the most sensitivity to emission from plasma at log10 T = 5.8. By examining the 1D line-of-sight emission measure temperature distribution found from six AIA EUV channels, we find the intensity of the moat to be most depressed over the temperature range log10 T ~ 5.7 - 6.2 for most of the cases. We argue that the dark moat exists because the pressure from the strong magnetic field that splays out from the AR presses down on underlying magnetic loops, flattening those loops -- along with the lowest of the ARs own loops over the moat -- to a low altitude. Those loops, which would normally emit the bulk of the 171 Angstrom emission, are restricted to heights above the surface that are too low to have 171 Angstrom-emitting plasmas sustained in them, according to Antiochos & Noci (1986), while hotter EUV-emitting plasmas are sustained in the overlying higher-altitude long AR-rooted coronal loops. This potentially explains the low-coronal-temperature dark moats surrounding the ARs.
We use observations of line-of-sight magnetograms from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to investigate polarity separation, magnetic flux, flux emergence rate, twist and tilt of solar emerging active regions. Functional dependence of polarity separation and maximum magnetic flux of an active region is in agreement with a simple model of flux emergence as the result of buoyancy forces. Our investigation did not reveal any strong dependence of emergence rate on twist properties of active regions.
Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival. The real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the CCMC and executed in real-time. The current implementation evaluates the sensitivity of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters. We discuss the results of real-time ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events between January 2013 - July 2014. For the 17 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, the mean absolute arrival time prediction error was 12.3 hours, which is comparable to the errors reported in other studies. For predictions of CME arrival at Earth the correct rejection rate is 62% and the false-alarm rate is 38%. The arrival time was within the range of the ensemble arrival predictions for 8 out of 17 events. The Brier Score for CME arrival predictions is 0.15 (where 1 is a perfect forecast), indicating that on average, the predicted likelihood of CME arrival is fairly accurate. The reliability of ensemble CME arrival predictions is heavily dependent on the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the median and spread. Preliminary analysis of the probabilistic forecasts suggests undervariability, indicating that these ensembles do not sample a wide enough spread in CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters, the accuracy of the solar wind background derived from coronal maps, or other model limitations. Finally, predictions of the Kp geomagnetic index differ from observed values by less than one for 11 out of 17 of the ensembles and Kp prediction errors computed from the mean predicted Kp show a mean absolute error of 1.3.
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