We derive the full kinetic equations describing the evolution of the probability density distribution for a structured population such as cells distributed according to their ages and sizes. The kinetic equations for such a sizer-timer model incorporates both demographic and individual cell growth rate stochasticities. Averages taken over the densities obeying the kinetic equations can be used to generate a second order PDE that incorporates the growth rate stochasticity. On the other hand, marginalizing over the densities yields a modified birth-death process that shows how age and size influence demographic stochasticity. Our kinetic framework is thus a more complete model that subsumes both the deterministic PDE and birth-death master equation representations for structured populations.
In a well-stirred system undergoing chemical reactions, fluctuations in the reaction propensities are approximately captured by the corresponding chemical Langevin equation. Within this context, we discuss in this work how the Kramers escape theory can be used to predict rare events in chemical reactions. As an example, we apply our approach to a recently proposed model on cell proliferation with relevance to skin cancer [P.B. Warren, Phys. Rev. E {bf 80}, 030903 (2009)]. In particular, we provide an analytical explanation for the form of the exponential exponent observed in the onset rate of uncontrolled cell proliferation.
We develop theoretical equivalences between stochastic and deterministic models for populations of individual cells stratified by age. Specifically, we develop a hierarchical system of equations describing the full dynamics of an age-structured multi-stage Markov process for approximating cell cycle time distributions. We further demonstrate that the resulting mean behaviour is equivalent, over large timescales, to the classical McKendrick-von Foerster integro-partial differential equation. We conclude by extending this framework to a spatial context, facilitating the modelling of travelling wave phenomena and cell-mediated pattern formation. More generally, this methodology may be extended to myriad reaction-diffusion processes for which the age of individuals is relevant to the dynamics.
Cooperative interactions pervade the dynamics of a broad rage of many-body systems, such as ecological communities, the organization of social structures, and economic webs. In this work, we investigate the dynamics of a simple population model that is driven by cooperative and symmetric interactions between two species. We develop a mean-field and a stochastic description for this cooperative two-species reaction scheme. For an isolated population, we determine the probability to reach a state of fixation, where only one species survives, as a function of the initial concentrations of the two species. We also determine the time to reach the fixation state. When each species can migrate into the population and replace a randomly selected individual, the population reaches a steady state. We show that this steady-state distribution undergoes a unimodal to trimodal transition as the migration rate is decreased beyond a critical value. In this low-migration regime, the steady state is not truly steady, but instead fluctuates strongly between near-fixation states of the two species. The characteristic time scale of these fluctuations diverges as $lambda^{-1}$.
We investigate a model of cell division in which the length of telomeres within the cell regulate their proliferative potential. At each cell division the ends of linear chromosomes change and a cell becomes senescent when one or more of its telomeres become shorter than a critical length. In addition to this systematic shortening, exchange of telomere DNA between the two daughter cells can occur at each cell division. We map this telomere dynamics onto a biased branching diffusion process with an absorbing boundary condition whenever any telomere reaches the critical length. As the relative effects of telomere shortening and cell division are varied, there is a phase transition between finite lifetime and infinite proliferation of the cell population. Using simple first-passage ideas, we quantify the nature of this transition.
We consider non-demographic noise in the form of uncertainty in the reaction step size, and reveal a dramatic effect this noise may have on the stability of self-regulating populations. Employing the reaction scheme mA->kA, but allowing, e.g., the product number k to be a-priori unknown and sampled from a given distribution, we show that such non-demographic noise can greatly reduce the populations extinction risk compared to the fixed k case. Our analysis is tested against numerical simulations, and by using empirical data of different species, we argue that certain distributions may be more evolutionary beneficial than others.
Mingtao Xia
,Tom Chou
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(2021)
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"Kinetic theory for structured populations: application to stochastic sizer-timer models of cell proliferation"
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Tom Chou
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