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Register a new userA probabilistic risk-based decision framework for structural health monitoring
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Added by
Aidan Hughes
Publication date
2021
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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Obtaining the ability to make informed decisions regarding the operation and maintenance of structures, provides a major incentive for the implementation of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an established methodology that allows engineers to make risk-informed decisions regarding the design and operation of safety-critical and high-value assets in industries such as nuclear and aerospace. The current paper aims to formulate a risk-based decision framework for structural health monitoring that combines elements of PRA with the existing SHM paradigm. As an apt tool for reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty, probabilistic graphical models serve as the foundation of the framework. The framework involves modelling failure modes of structures as Bayesian network representations of fault trees and then assigning costs or utilities to the failure events. The fault trees allow for information to pass from probabilistic classifiers to influence diagram representations of decision processes whilst also providing nodes within the graphical model that may be queried to obtain marginal probability distributions over local damage states within a structure. Optimal courses of action for structures are selected by determining the strategies that maximise expected utility. The risk-based framework is demonstrated on a realistic truss-like structure and supported by experimental data. Finally, a discussion of the risk-based approach is made and further challenges pertaining to decision-making processes in the context of SHM are identified.
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A primary motivation for the development and implementation of structural health monitoring systems, is the prospect of gaining the ability to make informed decisions regarding the operation and maintenance of structures and infrastructure. Unfortunately, descriptive labels for measured data corresponding to health-state information for the structure of interest are seldom available prior to the implementation of a monitoring system. This issue limits the applicability of the traditional supervised and unsupervised approaches to machine learning in the development of statistical classifiers for decision-supporting SHM systems. The current paper presents a risk-based formulation of active learning, in which the querying of class-label information is guided by the expected value of said information for each incipient data point. When applied to structural health monitoring, the querying of class labels can be mapped onto the inspection of a structure of interest in order to determine its health state. In the current paper, the risk-based active learning process is explained and visualised via a representative numerical example and subsequently applied to the Z24 Bridge benchmark. The results of the case studies indicate that a decision-makers performance can be improved via the risk-based active learning of a statistical classifier, such that the decision process itself is taken into account.
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