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Register a new userThe Value Added of Machine Learning to Causal Inference: Evidence from Revisited Studies
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A new and rapidly growing econometric literature is making advances in the problem of using machine learning methods for causal inference questions. Yet, the empirical economics literature has not started to fully exploit the strengths of these modern methods. We revisit influential empirical studies with causal machine learning methods and identify several advantages of using these techniques. We show that these advantages and their implications are empirically relevant and that the use of these methods can improve the credibility of causal analysis.
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In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of political power on the provision of public education. We use data from a historical nondemocratic society with a weighted voting system where eligible voters received votes in proportion to their taxable income and without any limit on the maximum of votes, i.e., the political system used in Swedish local governments during the period 1862-1909. We use a novel identification strategy where we combine two different identification strategies, i.e., a threshold regression analysis and a generalized event-study design, both of which exploit nonlinearities or discontinuities in the effect of political power between two opposing local elites: agricultural landowners and emerging industrialists. The results suggest that school spending is approximately 90-120% higher if the nonagrarian interest controls all of the votes compared to when landowners have more than a majority of votes. Moreover, we find no evidence that the concentration of landownership affected this relationship
This paper studies reputation in the online market for illegal drugs in which no legal institutions exist to alleviate uncertainty. Trade takes place on platforms that offer rating systems for sellers, thereby providing an observable measure of reputation. The analysis exploits the fact that one of the two dominant platforms unexpectedly disappeared. Re-entering sellers reset their rating. The results show that on average prices decreased by up to 9% and that a 1% increase in rating causes a price increase of 1%. Ratings and prices recover after about three months. We calculate that identified good types earn 1,650 USD more per week.
A majority portion of the slum people is involved in service sectors. The city dwellers are somehow dependent on the services of those people. Pure drinking water and hygiene is a significant concern in the slums. Because of the lack of these two items, the slum people are getting sick, which causes the interruption to their services. In addition, they can transmit the diseases they suffer from to the service receiver. With these aims, this study endeavors to explore the willingness to pay of the households who receive the services of the slum people using the mixed-method techniques. Under this technique, 265 households were surveyed through face-to-face interviews, and 10 KIIs were conducted with slum people. The studys findings suggest that the households showed their willingness to pay for the improvement of the water and sanitation facilities in the slums. However, the KIIs findings show that the slum people are not willing to pay for the improvement as they claim that government should finance the project of improving water and sanitation facilities in the slums.
How does food consumption improve educational outcomes is an important policy issue for developing countries. Applying the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 2014, we estimate the returns of food consumption to education and investigate if more educated individuals tend to consume healthier bundles than less-educated individuals do. We implement the Expected Outcome Methodology, which is similar to Average Treatment on The Treated (ATT) conceptualized by Angrist and Pischke (2009). We find that education tends to tilt consumption towards healthier foods. Specifically, individuals with upper secondary or higher levels of education, on average, consume 31.5% more healthy foods than those with lower secondary education or lower levels of education. With respect to unhealthy food consumption, more highly-educated individuals, on average, consume 22.8% less unhealthy food than less-educated individuals. This suggests that education can increase the inequality in the consumption of healthy food bundles. Our study suggests that it is important to design policies to expand education for all for at least up to higher secondary level in the context of Indonesia. Our finding also speaks to the link between food-health gradient and human capital formation for a developing country such as Indonesia.
The study examines the relationship between mobile financial services and individual financial behavior in India wherein a sizeable population is yet to be financially included. Addressing the endogeneity associated with the use of mobile financial services using an instrumental variable method, the study finds that the use of mobile financial services increases the likelihood of investment, having insurance and borrowing from formal financial institutions. Further, the analysis highlights that access to mobile financial services have the potential to bridge the gender divide in financial inclusion. Fastening the pace of access to mobile financial services may partially alter pandemic induced poverty.
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