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Register a new userHow do mobility restrictions and social distancing during COVID-19 affect the crude oil price?
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Added by
Asim Dey
Publication date
2021
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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We develop an air mobility index and use the newly developed Apples driving trend index to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the crude oil price. We use quantile regression and stationary and non-stationary extreme value models to study the impact. We find that both the textit{air mobility index} and textit{driving trend index} significantly influence lower and upper quantiles as well as the median of the WTI crude oil price. The extreme value model suggests that an event like COVID-19 may push oil prices to a negative territory again as the air mobility decreases drastically during such pandemics.
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This paper investigates the effect of the novel coronavirus and crude oil prices on the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Using daily data for the period January 21-March 13, 2020, our Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model shows that the new infection cases reported at global level, and the death ratio, have no significant effect on the US EPU, whereas the oil price negative dynamics leads to increased uncertainty. However, analyzing the situation outside China, we discover that both new case announcements and the COVID-19 associated death ratio have a positive influence on the US EPU.
Wikipedia, the largest encyclopedia ever created, is a global initiative driven by volunteer contributions. When the COVID-19 pandemic broke out and mobility restrictions ensued across the globe, it was unclear whether Wikipedia volunteers would become less active in the face of the pandemic, or whether they would rise to meet the increased demand for high-quality information despite the added stress inflicted by this crisis. Analyzing 223 million edits contributed from 2018 to 2020 across twelve Wikipedia language editions, we find that Wikipedias global volunteer community responded remarkably to the pandemic, substantially increasing both productivity and the number of newcomers who joined the community. For example, contributions to the English Wikipedia increased by over 20% compared to the expectation derived from pre-pandemic data. Our work sheds light on the response of a global volunteer population to the COVID-19 crisis, providing valuable insights into the behavior of critical online communities under stress.
Social distancing is widely acknowledged as an effective public health policy combating the novel coronavirus. But extreme social distancing has costs and it is not clear how much social distancing is needed to achieve public health effects. In this article, we develop a design-based framework to make inference about the dose-response relationship between social distancing and COVID-19 related death toll and case numbers. We first discuss how to embed observational data with a time-independent, continuous treatment dose into an approximate randomized experiment, and develop a randomization-based procedure that tests if a structured dose-response relationship fits the data. We then generalize the design and testing procedure to accommodate a time-dependent, treatment dose trajectory, and generalize a dose-response relationship to a longitudinal setting. Finally, we apply the proposed design and testing procedures to investigate the effect of social distancing during the phased reopening in the United States on public health outcomes using data compiled from sources including Unacast, the United States Census Bureau, and the County Health Rankings and Roadmaps Program. We rejected a primary analysis null hypothesis that stated the social distancing from April 27, 2020, to June 28, 2020, had no effect on the COVID-19-related death toll from June 29, 2020, to August 2, 2020 (p-value < 0.001), and found that it took more reduction in mobility to prevent exponential growth in case numbers for non-rural counties compared to rural counties.
In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, governments have encouraged and ordered citizens to practice social distancing, particularly by working and studying at home. Intuitively, only a subset of people have the ability to practice remote work. However, there has been little research on the disparity of mobility adaptation across different income groups in US cities during the pandemic. The authors worked to fill this gap by quantifying the impacts of the pandemic on human mobility by income in Greater Houston, Texas. In this paper, we determined human mobility using pseudonymized, spatially disaggregated cell phone location data. A longitudinal study across estimated income groups was conducted by measuring the total travel distance, radius of gyration, number of visited locations, and per-trip distance in April 2020 compared to the data in a baseline. An apparent disparity in mobility was found across estimated income groups. In particular, there was a strong negative correlation ($rho$ = -0.90) between a travelers estimated income and travel distance in April. Disparities in mobility adaptability were further shown since those in higher income brackets experienced larger percentage drops in the radius of gyration and the number of distinct visited locations than did those in lower income brackets. The findings of this study suggest a need to understand the reasons behind the mobility inflexibility among low-income populations during the pandemic. The study illuminates an equity issue which may be of interest to policy makers and researchers alike in the wake of an epidemic.
Social distancing remains an important strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, the impacts of specific state-level policies on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 case trajectories have not been completely quantified. Using anonymized and aggregated mobility data from opted-in Google users, we found that state-level emergency declarations resulted in a 9.9% reduction in time spent away from places of residence. Implementation of one or more social distancing policies resulted in an additional 24.5% reduction in mobility the following week, and subsequent shelter-in-place mandates yielded an additional 29.0% reduction. Decreases in mobility were associated with substantial reductions in case growth 2 to 4 weeks later. For example, a 10% reduction in mobility was associated with a 17.5% reduction in case growth 2 weeks later. Given the continued reliance on social distancing policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, these results may be helpful to public health officials trying to balance infection control with the economic and social consequences of these policies.
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