No Arabic abstract
Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to parameter estimation. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with very simplistic and statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving naive intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these rudimentary procedures, suggesting some simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide physicists with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden.
We propose a formalism for the analysis of direct-detection dark-matter searches that covers all coherent responses for scalar and vector interactions and incorporates QCD constraints imposed by chiral symmetry, including all one- and two-body WIMP-nucleon interactions up to third order in chiral effective field theory. One of the free parameters in the WIMP-nucleus cross section corresponds to standard spin-independent searches, but in general different combinations of new-physics couplings are probed. We identify the interference with the isovector counterpart of the standard spin-independent response and two-body currents as the dominant corrections to the leading spin-independent structure factor, and discuss the general consequences for the interpretation of direct-detection experiments, including minimal extensions of the standard spin-independent analysis. Fits for all structure factors required for the scattering off xenon targets are provided based on state-of-the-art nuclear shell-model calculations.
We highlight the progress, current status, and open challenges of QCD-driven physics, in theory and in experiment. We discuss how the strong interaction is intimately connected to a broad sweep of physical problems, in settings ranging from astrophysics and cosmology to strongly-coupled, complex systems in particle and condensed-matter physics, as well as to searches for physics beyond the Standard Model. We also discuss how success in describing the strong interaction impacts other fields, and, in turn, how such subjects can impact studies of the strong interaction. In the course of the work we offer a perspective on the many research streams which flow into and out of QCD, as well as a vision for future developments.
We present a fast likelihood method for including event-level neutrino telescope data in parameter explorations of theories for new physics, and announce its public release as part of DarkSUSY 5.0.6. Our construction includes both angular and spectral information about neutrino events, as well as their total number. We also present a corresponding measure for simple model exclusion, which can be used for single models without reference to the rest of a parameter space. We perform a number of supersymmetric parameter scans with IceCube data to illustrate the utility of the method: example global fits and a signal recovery in the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and a model exclusion exercise in a 7-parameter phenomenological version of the MSSM. The final IceCube detector configuration will probe almost the entire focus-point region of the CMSSM, as well as a number of MSSM-7 models that will not otherwise be accessible to e.g. direct detection. Our method accurately recovers the mock signal, and provides tight constraints on model parameters and derived quantities. We show that the inclusion of spectral information significantly improves the accuracy of the recovery, providing motivation for its use in future IceCube analyses.
Discovering statistically significant patterns from databases is an important challenging problem. The main obstacle of this problem is in the difficulty of taking into account the selection bias, i.e., the bias arising from the fact that patterns are selected from extremely large number of candidates in databases. In this paper, we introduce a new approach for predictive pattern mining problems that can address the selection bias issue. Our approach is built on a recently popularized statistical inference framework called selective inference. In selective inference, statistical inferences (such as statistical hypothesis testing) are conducted based on sampling distributions conditional on a selection event. If the selection event is characterized in a tractable way, statistical inferences can be made without minding selection bias issue. However, in pattern mining problems, it is difficult to characterize the entire selection process of mining algorithms. Our main contribution in this paper is to solve this challenging problem for a class of predictive pattern mining problems by introducing a novel algorithmic framework. We demonstrate that our approach is useful for finding statistically significant patterns from databases.
The recently proposed trans-Planckian censorship conjecture (TCC) amounts to the claim that inflation models with an inflationary energy scale larger than Lambda_inf^max ~ 10^9 GeV belong to the swampland, i.e., cannot be embedded into a consistent theory of quantum gravity. In this paper, we point out that this constraint can be readily satisfied in D-term hybrid inflation (DHI), which is a well-motivated inflation scenario in the context of supersymmetric grand unification. In DHI, the amplitude of the primordial scalar power spectrum originates from a Fayet-Iliopoulos term of the order of the unification scale, sqrt{xi} ~ 10^16 GeV. At the same time, the TCC results in an upper bound on the corresponding gauge coupling constant of g_max ~ 10^-14. We are able to show that this constraint translates into an upper bound on the gravitino mass of m_3/2^max ~ 10 MeV, which opens the possibility that dark matter is accounted for by thermally produced gravitinos, if the reheating temperature is close to T_reh ~ 100 TeV. Interestingly enough, a somewhat similar gravitino mass range has recently been derived in a model that aims at explaining dark energy in terms of axion quintessence and resolving the Hubble tension by means of decaying gravitino dark matter.