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Register a new userSelective Inference Approach for Statistically Sound Predictive Pattern Mining
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Added by
Ichiro Takeuchi Prof.
Publication date
2016
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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Discovering statistically significant patterns from databases is an important challenging problem. The main obstacle of this problem is in the difficulty of taking into account the selection bias, i.e., the bias arising from the fact that patterns are selected from extremely large number of candidates in databases. In this paper, we introduce a new approach for predictive pattern mining problems that can address the selection bias issue. Our approach is built on a recently popularized statistical inference framework called selective inference. In selective inference, statistical inferences (such as statistical hypothesis testing) are conducted based on sampling distributions conditional on a selection event. If the selection event is characterized in a tractable way, statistical inferences can be made without minding selection bias issue. However, in pattern mining problems, it is difficult to characterize the entire selection process of mining algorithms. Our main contribution in this paper is to solve this challenging problem for a class of predictive pattern mining problems by introducing a novel algorithmic framework. We demonstrate that our approach is useful for finding statistically significant patterns from databases.
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In this paper we study predictive pattern mining problems where the goal is to construct a predictive model based on a subset of predictive patterns in the database. Our main contribution is to introduce a novel method called safe pattern pruning (SPP) for a class of predictive pattern mining problems. The SPP method allows us to efficiently find a superset of all the predictive patterns in the database that are needed for the optimal predictive model. The advantage of the SPP method over existing boosting-type method is that the former can find the superset by a single search over the database, while the latter requires multiple searches. The SPP method is inspired by recent development of safe feature screening. In order to extend the idea of safe feature screening into predictive pattern mining, we derive a novel pruning rule called safe pattern pruning (SPP) rule that can be used for searching over the tree defined among patterns in the database. The SPP rule has a property that, if a node corresponding to a pattern in the database is pruned out by the SPP rule, then it is guaranteed that all the patterns corresponding to its descendant nodes are never needed for the optimal predictive model. We apply the SPP method to graph mining and item-set mining problems, and demonstrate its computational advantage.
Conditional selective inference (SI) has been actively studied as a new statistical inference framework for data-driven hypotheses. The basic idea of conditional SI is to make inferences conditional on the selection event characterized by a set of linear and/or quadratic inequalities. Conditional SI has been mainly studied in the context of feature selection such as stepwise feature selection (SFS). The main limitation of the existing conditional SI methods is the loss of power due to over-conditioning, which is required for computational tractability. In this study, we develop a more powerful and general conditional SI method for SFS using the homotopy method which enables us to overcome this limitation. The homotopy-based SI is especially effective for more complicated feature selection algorithms. As an example, we develop a conditional SI method for forward-backward SFS with AIC-based stopping criteria and show that it is not adversely affected by the increased complexity of the algorithm. We conduct several experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.
Pattern mining is well established in data mining research, especially for mining binary datasets. Surprisingly, there is much less work about numerical pattern mining and this research area remains under-explored. In this paper, we propose Mint, an efficient MDL-based algorithm for mining numerical datasets. The MDL principle is a robust and reliable framework widely used in pattern mining, and as well in subgroup discovery. In Mint we reuse MDL for discovering useful patterns and returning a set of non-redundant overlapping patterns with well-defined boundaries and covering meaningful groups of objects. Mint is not alone in the category of numerical pattern miners based on MDL. In the experiments presented in the paper we show that Mint outperforms competitors among which Slim and RealKrimp.
Conditional selective inference (SI) has been studied intensively as a new statistical inference framework for data-driven hypotheses. The basic concept of conditional SI is to make the inference conditional on the selection event, which enables an exact and valid statistical inference to be conducted even when the hypothesis is selected based on the data. Conditional SI has mainly been studied in the context of model selection, such as vanilla lasso or generalized lasso. The main limitation of existing approaches is the low statistical power owing to over-conditioning, which is required for computational tractability. In this study, we propose a more powerful and general conditional SI method for a class of problems that can be converted into quadratic parametric programming, which includes generalized lasso. The key concept is to compute the continuum path of the optimal solution in the direction of the selected test statistic and to identify the subset of the data space that corresponds to the model selection event by following the solution path. The proposed parametric programming-based method not only avoids the aforementioned major drawback of over-conditioning, but also improves the performance and practicality of SI in various respects. We conducted several experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed method.
Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to parameter estimation. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with very simplistic and statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving naive intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these rudimentary procedures, suggesting some simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide physicists with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden.
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