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Two populations of LIGO-Virgo black holes

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 Added by Ville Vaskonen
 Publication date 2020
  fields Physics
and research's language is English




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We analyse the LIGO-Virgo data, including the recently released GWTC-2 dataset, to test a hypothesis that the data contains more than one population of black holes. We perform a maximum likelihood analysis including a population of astrophysical black holes with a truncated power-law mass function whose merger rate follows from star formation rate, and a population of primordial black holes for which we consider log-normal and critical collapse mass functions. We find that primordial black holes alone are strongly disfavoured by the data, while the best fit is obtained for the template combining astrophysical and primordial merger rates. Alternatively, the data may hint towards two different astrophysical black hole populations. We also update the constraints on primordial black hole abundance from LIGO-Virgo observations finding that in the $2-400 M_{odot}$ mass range, they must comprise less than 0.2% of dark matter.



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The LIGO and Virgo Interferometers have so far provided 11 gravitational-wave (GW) observations of black-hole binaries. Similar detections are bound to become very frequent in the near future. With the current and upcoming wealth of data, it is possible to confront specific formation models with observations. We investigate here whether current data are compatible with the hypothesis that LIGO/Virgo black holes are of primordial origin. We compute in detail the mass and spin distributions of primordial black holes (PBHs), their merger rates, the stochastic background of unresolved coalescences, and confront them with current data from the first two observational runs, also including the recently discovered GW190412. We compute the best-fit values for the parameters of the PBH mass distribution at formation that are compatible with current GW data. In all cases, the maximum fraction of PBHs in dark matter is constrained by these observations to be $f_{text{PBH}}approx {rm few}times 10^{-3}$. We discuss the predictions of the PBH scenario that can be directly tested as new data become available. In the most likely formation scenarios where PBHs are born with negligible spin, the fact that at least one of the components of GW190412 is moderately spinning is incompatible with a primordial origin for this event, unless accretion or hierarchical mergers are significant. In the absence of accretion, current non-GW constraints already exclude that LIGO/Virgo events are all of primordial origin, whereas in the presence of accretion the GW bounds on the PBH abundance are the most stringent ones in the relevant mass range. A strong phase of accretion during the cosmic history would favour mass ratios close to unity, and a redshift-dependent correlation between high masses, high spins and nearly-equal mass binaries, with the secondary component spinning faster than the primary.
The black holes detected by current and future interferometers can have diverse origins. Their expected mass and spin distributions depend on the specifics of the formation mechanisms. When a physically motivated prior distribution is used in a Bayesian inference, the parameters estimated from the gravitational-wave data can change significantly, potentially affecting the physical interpretation of certain gravitational-wave events and their implications on theoretical models. As a case study we analyze primordial black holes, which might be formed in the early universe and could comprise at least a fraction of the dark matter. If accretion is not efficient during their cosmic history, primordial black holes are expected to be almost non-spinning. If accretion is efficient, massive binaries tend to be symmetrical and highly spinning. We show that incorporating these priors can significantly change the inferred mass ratio and effective spin of some binary black hole events, especially those identified as high-mass, asymmetrical, or spinning by a standard analysis using agnostic priors. For several events, the Bayes factors are only mildly affected by the new priors, implying that it is hard to distinguish whether merger events detected so far are of primordial or astrophysical origin. In particular, if binaries identified by LIGO/Virgo as strongly asymmetrical (including GW190412) are of primordial origin, their mass ratio inferred from the data can be closer to unity. For GW190412, the latter property is strongly affected by the inclusion of higher harmonics in the waveform model.
By probing the population of binary black hole (BBH) mergers detected by LIGO-Virgo, we can infer properties about the underlying black hole formation channels. A mechanism known as pair-instability (PI) supernova is expected to prevent the formation of black holes from stellar collapse with mass greater than $sim 40-65,M_odot$ and less than $sim 120,M_odot$. Any BBH merger detected by LIGO-Virgo with a component black hole in this gap, known as the PI mass gap, likely originated from an alternative formation channel. Here, we firmly establish GW190521 as an outlier to the stellar-mass BBH population if the PI mass gap begins at or below $65, M_{odot}$. In addition, for a PI lower boundary of $40-50, M_{odot}$, we find it unlikely that the remaining distribution of detected BBH events, excluding GW190521, is consistent with the stellar-mass population.
Gravitational lensing allows the detection of binary black holes (BBH) at cosmological distances with chirp masses that appear to be enhanced by $1+z$ in the range $1<z<4$, in good agreement with the reported BBH masses. We propose this effect also accounts for the puzzling mass gap events (MG) newly reported by LIGO/Virgo, as distant, lensed NSBH events with $1<z<4$. The fitted mass of the neutron star member becomes $(1+z)times 1.4M_odot$, and is therefore misclassified as a low mass black hole. In this way, we derive a redshift of $zsimeq 3.5$ and $zsimeq 1.0$ for two newly reported mass asymmetric events GW190412 & GW190814, by interpreting them as lensed NSBH events, comprising a stellar mass black hole and neutron star. Over the past year an additional 31 BBH events and 5 MG events have been reported with high probability ($>95%$), from which we infer a factor $simeq 5$ higher intrinsic rate of NSBH events than BBH events, reflecting a higher proportion of neutron stars formed by early star formation. We predict a distinctive locus for lensed NSBH events in the observed binary mass plane, spanning $1<z<4$ with a narrow mass ratio, $q simeq 0.2$, that can be readily tested when the waveform data are unlocked. All such events may show disrupted NS emission and are worthy of prompt follow-up as the high lensing magnification means EM detections are not prohibitive despite the high redshifts that we predict. Such lensed NSBH events provide an exciting prospect of directly charting the history of coalescing binaries via the cosmological redshift of their waveforms, determined relative to the characteristic mass of the neutron star member.
We discuss a possible connection between the recent NANOGrav results and the primordial black holes (PBHs) for the LIGO-Virgo events. In particular, we focus on the axion-like curvaton model, which provides a sizable amount of PBHs and GWs induced by scalar perturbations around the NANOGrav frequency range. The inevitable non-Gaussianity of this model suppresses the induced GWs associated with PBHs for the LIGO-Virgo events to be compatible with the NANOGrav results. We show that the axion-like curvaton model can account for PBHs for the LIGO-Virgo events and the NANOGrav results simultaneously.
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