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Register a new userThe Importance of Priors on LIGO-Virgo Parameter Estimation: the Case of Primordial Black Holes
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The black holes detected by current and future interferometers can have diverse origins. Their expected mass and spin distributions depend on the specifics of the formation mechanisms. When a physically motivated prior distribution is used in a Bayesian inference, the parameters estimated from the gravitational-wave data can change significantly, potentially affecting the physical interpretation of certain gravitational-wave events and their implications on theoretical models. As a case study we analyze primordial black holes, which might be formed in the early universe and could comprise at least a fraction of the dark matter. If accretion is not efficient during their cosmic history, primordial black holes are expected to be almost non-spinning. If accretion is efficient, massive binaries tend to be symmetrical and highly spinning. We show that incorporating these priors can significantly change the inferred mass ratio and effective spin of some binary black hole events, especially those identified as high-mass, asymmetrical, or spinning by a standard analysis using agnostic priors. For several events, the Bayes factors are only mildly affected by the new priors, implying that it is hard to distinguish whether merger events detected so far are of primordial or astrophysical origin. In particular, if binaries identified by LIGO/Virgo as strongly asymmetrical (including GW190412) are of primordial origin, their mass ratio inferred from the data can be closer to unity. For GW190412, the latter property is strongly affected by the inclusion of higher harmonics in the waveform model.
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The LIGO and Virgo Interferometers have so far provided 11 gravitational-wave (GW) observations of black-hole binaries. Similar detections are bound to become very frequent in the near future. With the current and upcoming wealth of data, it is possible to confront specific formation models with observations. We investigate here whether current data are compatible with the hypothesis that LIGO/Virgo black holes are of primordial origin. We compute in detail the mass and spin distributions of primordial black holes (PBHs), their merger rates, the stochastic background of unresolved coalescences, and confront them with current data from the first two observational runs, also including the recently discovered GW190412. We compute the best-fit values for the parameters of the PBH mass distribution at formation that are compatible with current GW data. In all cases, the maximum fraction of PBHs in dark matter is constrained by these observations to be $f_{text{PBH}}approx {rm few}times 10^{-3}$. We discuss the predictions of the PBH scenario that can be directly tested as new data become available. In the most likely formation scenarios where PBHs are born with negligible spin, the fact that at least one of the components of GW190412 is moderately spinning is incompatible with a primordial origin for this event, unless accretion or hierarchical mergers are significant. In the absence of accretion, current non-GW constraints already exclude that LIGO/Virgo events are all of primordial origin, whereas in the presence of accretion the GW bounds on the PBH abundance are the most stringent ones in the relevant mass range. A strong phase of accretion during the cosmic history would favour mass ratios close to unity, and a redshift-dependent correlation between high masses, high spins and nearly-equal mass binaries, with the secondary component spinning faster than the primary.
Evidences for the primordial black holes (PBH) presence in the early Universe renew permanently. New limits on their mass spectrum challenge existing models of PBH formation. One of the known model is based on the closed walls collapse after the inflationary epoch. Its intrinsic feature is multiple production of small mass PBH which might contradict observations in the nearest future. We show that the mechanism of walls collapse can be applied to produce substantially different PBH mass spectra if one takes into account the classical motion of scalar fields together with their quantum fluctuations at the inflationary stage.
Adopting a binned method, we model-independently reconstruct the mass function of primordial black holes (PBHs) from GWTC-2 and find that such a PBH mass function can be explained by a broad red-tilted power spectrum of curvature perturbations. Even though GW190521 with component masses in upper mass gap $(m>65M_odot)$ can be naturally interpreted in the PBH scenario, the events (including GW190814, GW190425, GW200105, and GW200115) with component masses in the light mass range $(m<3M_odot)$ are quite unlikely to be explained by binary PBHs although there are no electromagnetic counterparts because the corresponding PBH merger rates are much smaller than those given by LIGO-Virgo. Furthermore, we predict that both the gravitational-wave (GW) background generated by the binary PBHs and the scalar-induced GWs accompanying the formation of PBHs should be detected by the ground-based and space-borne GW detectors and pulsar timing arrays in the future.
We update the constraints on the fraction of the Universe that may have gone into primordial black holes (PBHs) over the mass range $10^{-5}text{--}10^{50}$ g. Those smaller than $sim 10^{15}$ g would have evaporated by now due to Hawking radiation, so their abundance at formation is constrained by the effects of evaporated particles on big bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the Galactic and extragalactic $gamma$-ray and cosmic ray backgrounds and the possible generation of stable Planck mass relics. PBHs larger than $sim 10^{15}$ g are subject to a variety of constraints associated with gravitational lensing, dynamical effects, influence on large-scale structure, accretion and gravitational waves. We discuss the constraints on both the initial collapse fraction and the current fraction of the CDM in PBHs at each mass scale but stress that many of the constraints are associated with observational or theoretical uncertainties. We also consider indirect constraints associated with the amplitude of the primordial density fluctuations, such as second-order tensor perturbations and $mu$-distortions arising from the effect of acoustic reheating on the CMB, if PBHs are created from the high-$sigma$ peaks of nearly Gaussian fluctuations. Finally we discuss how the constraints are modified if the PBHs have an extended mass function, this being relevant if PBHs provide some combination of the dark matter, the LIGO/Virgo coalescences and the seeds for cosmic structure. Even if PBHs make a small contribution to the dark matter, they could play an important cosmological role and provide a unique probe of the early Universe.
We calculate the exact formation probability of primordial black holes generated during the collapse at horizon re-entry of large fluctuations produced during inflation, such as those ascribed to a period of ultra-slow-roll. We show that it interpolates between a Gaussian at small values of the average density contrast and a Cauchy probability distribution at large values. The corresponding abundance of primordial black holes may be larger than the Gaussian one by several orders of magnitude. The mass function is also shifted towards larger masses.
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