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Register a new userA Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges
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Added by
Moloud Abdar
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in reduction of uncertainties during both optimization and decision making processes. It can be applied to solve a variety of real-world applications in science and engineering. Bayesian approximation and ensemble learning techniques are two most widely-used UQ methods in the literature. In this regard, researchers have proposed different UQ methods and examined their performance in a variety of applications such as computer vision (e.g., self-driving cars and object detection), image processing (e.g., image restoration), medical image analysis (e.g., medical image classification and segmentation), natural language processing (e.g., text classification, social media texts and recidivism risk-scoring), bioinformatics, etc. This study reviews recent advances in UQ methods used in deep learning. Moreover, we also investigate the application of these methods in reinforcement learning (RL). Then, we outline a few important applications of UQ methods. Finally, we briefly highlight the fundamental research challenges faced by UQ methods and discuss the future research directions in this field.
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Ensemble learning combines several individual models to obtain better generalization performance. Currently, deep learning models with multilayer processing architecture is showing better performance as compared to the shallow or traditional classification models. Deep ensemble learning models combine the advantages of both the deep learning models as well as the ensemble learning such that the final model has better generalization performance. This paper reviews the state-of-art deep ensemble models and hence serves as an extensive summary for the researchers. The ensemble models are broadly categorised into ensemble models like bagging, boosting and stacking, negative correlation based deep ensemble models, explicit/implicit ensembles, homogeneous /heterogeneous ensemble, decision fusion strategies, unsupervised, semi-supervised, reinforcement learning and online/incremental, multilabel based deep ensemble models. Application of deep ensemble models in different domains is also briefly discussed. Finally, we conclude this paper with some future recommendations and research directions.
Deep learning-based object pose estimators are often unreliable and overconfident especially when the input image is outside the training domain, for instance, with sim2real transfer. Efficient and robust uncertainty quantification (UQ) in pose estimators is critically needed in many robotic tasks. In this work, we propose a simple, efficient, and plug-and-play UQ method for 6-DoF object pose estimation. We ensemble 2-3 pre-trained models with different neural network architectures and/or training data sources, and compute their average pairwise disagreement against one another to obtain the uncertainty quantification. We propose four disagreement metrics, including a learned metric, and show that the average distance (ADD) is the best learning-free metric and it is only slightly worse than the learned metric, which requires labeled target data. Our method has several advantages compared to the prior art: 1) our method does not require any modification of the training process or the model inputs; and 2) it needs only one forward pass for each model. We evaluate the proposed UQ method on three tasks where our uncertainty quantification yields much stronger correlations with pose estimation errors than the baselines. Moreover, in a real robot grasping task, our method increases the grasping success rate from 35% to 90%.
Safety concerns on the deep neural networks (DNNs) have been raised when they are applied to critical sectors. In this paper, we define safety risks by requesting the alignment of the networks decision with human perception. To enable a general methodology for quantifying safety risks, we define a generic safety property and instantiate it to express various safety risks. For the quantification of risks, we take the maximum radius of safe norm balls, in which no safety risk exists. The computation of the maximum safe radius is reduced to the computation of their respective Lipschitz metrics - the quantities to be computed. In addition to the known adversarial example, reachability example, and invariant example, in this paper we identify a new class of risk - uncertainty example - on which humans can tell easily but the network is unsure. We develop an algorithm, inspired by derivative-free optimization techniques and accelerated by tensor-based parallelization on GPUs, to support efficient computation of the metrics. We perform evaluations on several benchmark neural networks, including ACSC-Xu, MNIST, CIFAR-10, and ImageNet networks. The experiments show that, our method can achieve competitive performance on safety quantification in terms of the tightness and the efficiency of computation. Importantly, as a generic approach, our method can work with a broad class of safety risks and without restrictions on the structure of neural networks.
Computational image reconstruction algorithms generally produce a single image without any measure of uncertainty or confidence. Regularized Maximum Likelihood (RML) and feed-forward deep learning approaches for inverse problems typically focus on recovering a point estimate. This is a serious limitation when working with underdetermined imaging systems, where it is conceivable that multiple image modes would be consistent with the measured data. Characterizing the space of probable images that explain the observational data is therefore crucial. In this paper, we propose a variational deep probabilistic imaging approach to quantify reconstruction uncertainty. Deep Probabilistic Imaging (DPI) employs an untrained deep generative model to estimate a posterior distribution of an unobserved image. This approach does not require any training data; instead, it optimizes the weights of a neural network to generate image samples that fit a particular measurement dataset. Once the network weights have been learned, the posterior distribution can be efficiently sampled. We demonstrate this approach in the context of interferometric radio imaging, which is used for black hole imaging with the Event Horizon Telescope, and compressed sensing Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI).
Emergence of artificial intelligence techniques in biomedical applications urges the researchers to pay more attention on the uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine-assisted medical decision making. For classification tasks, prior studies on UQ are difficult to compare with each other, due to the lack of a unified quantitative evaluation metric. Considering that well-performing UQ models ought to know when the classification models act incorrectly, we design a new evaluation metric, area under Confidence-Classification Characteristic curves (AUCCC), to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the UQ models. AUCCC is threshold-free, robust to perturbation, and insensitive to the classification performance. We evaluate several UQ methods (e.g., max softmax output) with AUCCC to validate its effectiveness. Furthermore, a simple scheme, named Uncertainty Distillation (UDist), is developed to boost the UQ performance, where a confidence model is distilling the confidence estimated by deep ensembles. The proposed method is easy to implement; it consistently outperforms strong baselines on natural and medical image datasets in our experiments.
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