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Register a new userSocial tipping processes for sustainability: An analytical framework
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Added by
Jonathan Friedemann Donges
Publication date
2020
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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Societal transformations are necessary to address critical global challenges, such as mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and reaching UN sustainable development goals. Recently, social tipping processes have received increased attention, as they present a form of social change whereby a small change can shift a sensitive social system into a qualitatively different state due to strongly self-amplifying (mathematically positive) feedback mechanisms. Social tipping processes have been suggested as key drivers of sustainability transitions emerging in the fields of technological and energy systems, political mobilization, financial markets and sociocultural norms and behaviors. Drawing from expert elicitation and comprehensive literature review, we develop a framework to identify and characterize social tipping processes critical to facilitating rapid social transformations. We find that social tipping processes are distinguishable from those of already more widely studied climate and ecological tipping dynamics. In particular, we identify human agency, social-institutional network structures, different spatial and temporal scales and increased complexity as key distinctive features underlying social tipping processes. Building on these characteristics, we propose a formal definition for social tipping processes and filtering criteria for those processes that could be decisive for future trajectories to global sustainability in the Anthropocene. We illustrate this definition with the European political system as an example of potential social tipping processes, highlighting the potential role of the FridaysForFuture movement. Accordingly, this analytical framework for social tipping processes can be utilized to illuminate mechanisms for necessary transformative climate change mitigation policies and actions.
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How can minorities of regular individuals overturn social conventions? Theoretical and empirical studies have proposed that when a committed minority reaches a critical group size-ranging from 10% of the population up to 40%-a cascade of behaviour change rapidly increases the acceptance of the minority view and apparently stable social norms can be overturned. However, several observations suggest that much smaller groups may be sufficient to bring the system to a tipping point. Here, we generalise a model previously used for both theoretical and empirical investigations of tipping points in social convention and find that the critical mass necessary to trigger behaviour change is dramatically reduced if individuals are less prone to change their views, i.e., are more resistant to social influence. We show that groups smaller than 3% of the population are effective on different kinds of social networks, both when pairwise or group interactions are considered, and in a broad region of the parameter space. In some cases, even groups as small as 0.3% may overturn the current social norm. Our findings reconcile the numerous observational accounts of rapid change in social convention triggered by committed minorities with the apparent difficulty of establishing such large minorities in the first place. We anticipate that they will be of interest for both researchers and practitioners interested in understanding the phenomenon of norm change, and in designing interventions aimed at contrasting such global challenges as climate change and vaccine hesitancy.
Current models for opinion dynamics typically utilize a Poisson process for speaker selection, making the waiting time between events exponentially distributed. Human interaction tends to be bursty, though, having higher probabilities of either extremely short waiting times or long periods of silence. To quantify the burstiness effects on the dynamics of social models, we place in competition two groups exhibiting different speakers waiting-time distributions. These competitions are implemented in the binary Naming Game, and show that the relevant aspect of the waiting-time distribution is the density of the head rather than that of the tail. We show that even with identical mean waiting times, a group with a higher density of short waiting times is favored in competition over the other group. This effect remains in the presence of nodes holding a single opinion that never changes, as the fraction of such committed individuals necessary for achieving consensus decreases dramatically when they have a higher head density than the holders of the competing opinion. Finally, to quantify differences in burstiness, we introduce the expected number of small-time activations and use it to characterize the early-time regime of the system.
Simulation with agent-based models is increasingly used in the study of complex socio-technical systems and in social simulation in general. This paradigm offers a number of attractive features, namely the possibility of modeling emergent phenomena within large populations. As a consequence, often the quantity in need of calibration may be a distribution over the population whose relation with the parameters of the model is analytically intractable. Nevertheless, we can simulate. In this paper we present a simulation-based framework for the calibration of agent-based models with distributional output based on indirect inference. We illustrate our method step by step on a model of norm emergence in an online community of peer production, using data from three large Wikipedia communities. Model fit and diagnostics are discussed.
A theoretical framework is developed for understanding the transient growth and propagation characteristics of thermodynamically coupled, meridional mode-like structures in the tropics. The model consists of a Gill-Matsuno type steady atmosphere under the longwave approximation coupled via a wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature (WES) feedback to a slab ocean model. When projected onto basis functions for the atmosphere the system simplifies to a non-normal set of equations that describes the evolution of individual sea surface temperature (SST) modes, with clean separation between symmetric and anti-symmetric modes. The following major findings result from analysis of the system: (i) a transient growth process exists whereby specific SST modes propagate toward lower order modes at the expense of the higher-order modes; (ii) the same dynamical mechanisms govern the evolution of symmetric and anti-symmetric SST modes except for the lowest-order wave number, where for symmetric structures the atmospheric Kelvin wave plays a critically different role in enhancing decay; and (iii) the WES feedback is positive for all modes (with a maximum for the most equatorially confined antisymmetric structure) except for the most equatorially confined symmetric mode where the Kelvin wave generates a negative WES feedback. Taken together, these findings explain why equatorially anti-symmetric dipole-like structures may dominate thermodynamically coupled ocean / atmosphere variability in the tropics. The role of non-normality as well as the role of realistic mean states in meridional mode variability are discussed.
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