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Register a new userMutual detectability: a targeted SETI strategy that avoids the SETI Paradox
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Eamonn Kerins
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As our ability to undertake more powerful Searches for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) grows, so does interest in the more controversial endeavour of Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence (METI). METI proponents point to the SETI Paradox - if all civilisations refrain from METI then SETI is futile. I introduce Mutual Detectability as a game-theoretic strategy aimed at increasing the success potential of targeted SETI. Mutual detectability is embodied by four laws: mutuality, symmetry, opportunity and superiority. These laws establish how SETI participants can engage each other using game theory principles applied to mutual evidence of mutual existence. The law of superiority establishes an onus to transmit on the party whom both SETI participants can judge to have better quality evidence, or common denominator information (CDI), thus avoiding the SETI Paradox. I argue that transiting exoplanets within the Earth Transit Zone form a target subset that satisfies mutual detectability requirements. I identify the intrinsic time-integrated transit signal strength as suitable CDI. Civilisations on habitable-zone planets of radius $R_{rm p}/R_{oplus} lesssim (L_*/L_{odot})^{-1/7}$ have superior CDI on us, so have game-theory incentive (onus) to transmit. Whilst this implies that the onus to transmit falls on us for habitable planets around $L_* > L_{odot}$ stars, considerations of relative stellar frequency, main-sequence lifetime and planet occurrence mean such systems are likely a small minority. Surveys of the Earth Transit Zone for Earth-analogue transits around sub-solar luminosity hosts, followed up by targeted SETI monitoring of them, represent an efficient strategy compliant with mutual detectability. A choice to remain silent, by not engaging in METI towards such systems, does not in this case fuel concerns of a SETI Paradox.
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We applied the Koch snowflake fractal antenna in planning calibration of the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical radio Telescope (FAST), hypothesizing second-order fractal primary reflectors can optimize the orientated sensitivity of the telescope. Meanwhile, on the grounds of NASA Science Working Group Report in 1984, we reexamine the strategy of Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). A mathematical analysis of the radar equation will be performed in the first section, aiming to make it convenient to design a receiver system that can detect activities of an extraterrestrial civilization, according to the observable region of the narrowband. Taking advantage of the inherent potential of FAST, we simulate the theoretical detection of a Kardashev Type I civilization by a snowflake-selected reflecting area.
To explore the hypothesis that KIC 8462852s aperiodic dimming is caused by artificial megastructures in orbit (Wright et al. 2015), rather than a natural cause such as cometary fragments in a highly elliptical orbit (Marengo et al. 2015), we searched for electromagnetic signals from KIC 8462852 indicative of extraterrestrial intelligence. The primary observations were in the visible optical regime using the Boquete Optical SETI Observatory in Panama. In addition, as a preparatory exercise for the possible future detection of a candidate signal (Heidmann 1991), three of six observing runs simultaneously searched radio frequencies at the Allen Telescope Array in California. No periodic optical signals greater than 67 photons/m2 within a time frame of 25 ns were seen. This limit corresponds to isotropic optical pulses of 8E22 joules. If, however, any inhabitants of KIC 8462852 were targeting our solar system (Shostak & Villard 2004), the required energy would be reduced greatly. The limits on narrowband radio signals were 180 - 300 Jy Hz at 1 and 8 GHz, respectively, corresponding to a transmitter with an effective isotropic radiated power of 4E15 W (and 7E15 W) at the distance of KIC 8462852. While these powers requirements are high, even modest targeting could - just as for optical signals - lower these numbers substantially.
We report on a search for the presence of signals from extraterrestrial intelligence in the direction of the star system KIC 8462852. Observations were made at radio frequencies between 1-10 GHz using the Allen Telescope Array. No narrowband radio signals were found at a level of 180-300 Jy in a 1 Hz channel, or medium band signals above 10 Jy in a 100 kHz channel.
We report radio SETI observations on a large number of known exoplanets and other nearby star systems using the Allen Telescope Array (ATA). Observations were made over about 19000 hours from May 2009 to Dec 2015. This search focused on narrow-band radio signals from a set totaling 9293 stars, including 2015 exoplanet stars and Kepler objects of interest and an additional 65 whose planets may be close to their Habitable Zone. The ATA observations were made using multiple synthesized beams and an anticoincidence filter to help identify terrestrial radio interference. Stars were observed over frequencies from 1- 9 GHz in multiple bands that avoid strong terrestrial communication frequencies. Data were processed in near-real time for narrow-band (0.7- 100 Hz) continuous and pulsed signals, with transmitter/receiver relative accelerations from -0.3 to 0.3 m/s^2. A total of 1.9 x 10^8 unique signals requiring immediate follow-up were detected in observations covering more than 8 x 10^6 star-MHz. We detected no persistent signals from extraterrestrial technology exceeding our frequency-dependent sensitivity threshold of 180 - 310 x 10^-26 W / m^2.
In 2019, Reyes & Wright used the NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS) to initiate a comprehensive bibliography for SETI accessible to the public. Since then, updates to the library have been incomplete, partly due to the difficulty in managing the large number of false positive publications generated by searching ADS using simple search terms. In preparation for a recent update, the scope of the library was revised and reexamined. The scope now includes social sciences and commensal SETI. Results were curated based on five SETI keyword searches: SETI, technosignature, Fermi Paradox, Drake Equation, and extraterrestrial intelligence. These keywords returned 553 publications that merited inclusion in the bibliography that were not previously present. A curated library of false positive results is now concurrently maintained to facilitate their exclusion from future searches. A search query and workflow was developed to capture nearly all SETI-related papers indexed by ADS while minimizing false positives. These tools will enable efficient, consistent updates of the SETI library by future curators, and could be adopted for other bibliography projects as well.
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