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Register a new userSteering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19
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Forecasting influenza in a timely manner aids health organizations and policymakers in adequate preparation and decision making. However, effective influenza forecasting still remains a challenge despite increasing research interest. It is even more challenging amidst the COVID pandemic, when the influenza-like illness (ILI) counts are affected by various factors such as symptomatic similarities with COVID-19 and shift in healthcare seeking patterns of the general population. Under the current pandemic, historical influenza models carry valuable expertise about the disease dynamics but face difficulties adapting. Therefore, we propose CALI-Net, a neural transfer learning architecture which allows us to steer a historical disease forecasting model to new scenarios where flu and COVID co-exist. Our framework enables this adaptation by automatically learning when it should emphasize learning from COVID-related signals and when it should learn from the historical model. Thus, we exploit representations learned from historical ILI data as well as the limited COVID-related signals. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach is successful in adapting a historical forecasting model to the current pandemic. In addition, we show that success in our primary goal, adaptation, does not sacrifice overall performance as compared with state-of-the-art influenza forecasting approaches.
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The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still a worldwide threat to human life since its invasion into the daily lives of the public in the first several months of 2020. Predicting the size of confirmed cases is important for countries and communities to make proper prevention and control policies so as to effectively curb the spread of COVID-19. Different from the 2003 SARS epidemic and the worldwide 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, COVID-19 has unique epidemiological characteristics in its infectious and recovered compartments. This drives us to formulate a new infectious dynamic model for forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic within the human mobility network, named the SaucIR-model in the sense that the new compartmental model extends the benchmark SIR model by dividing the flow of people in the infected state into asymptomatic, pathologically infected but unconfirmed, and confirmed. Furthermore, we employ dynamic modeling of population flow in the model in order that spatial effects can be incorporated effectively. We forecast the spread of accumulated confirmed cases in some provinces of mainland China and other countries that experienced severe infection during the time period from late February to early May 2020. The novelty of incorporating the geographic spread of the pandemic leads to a surprisingly good agreement with published confirmed case reports. The numerical analysis validates the high degree of predictability of our proposed SaucIR model compared to existing resemblance. The proposed forecasting SaucIR model is implemented in Python. A web-based application is also developed by Dash (under construction).
We introduce DeepGLEAM, a hybrid model for COVID-19 forecasting. DeepGLEAM combines a mechanistic stochastic simulation model GLEAM with deep learning. It uses deep learning to learn the correction terms from GLEAM, which leads to improved performance. We further integrate various uncertainty quantification methods to generate confidence intervals. We demonstrate DeepGLEAM on real-world COVID-19 mortality forecasting tasks.
The COVID-19 pandemic represents the most significant public health disaster since the 1918 influenza pandemic. During pandemics such as COVID-19, timely and reliable spatio-temporal forecasting of epidemic dynamics is crucial. Deep learning-based time series models for forecasting have recently gained popularity and have been successfully used for epidemic forecasting. Here we focus on the design and analysis of deep learning-based models for COVID-19 forecasting. We implement multiple recurrent neural network-based deep learning models and combine them using the stacking ensemble technique. In order to incorporate the effects of multiple factors in COVID-19 spread, we consider multiple sources such as COVID-19 confirmed and death case count data and testing data for better predictions. To overcome the sparsity of training data and to address the dynamic correlation of the disease, we propose clustering-based training for high-resolution forecasting. The methods help us to identify the similar trends of certain groups of regions due to various spatio-temporal effects. We examine the proposed method for forecasting weekly COVID-19 new confirmed cases at county-, state-, and country-level. A comprehensive comparison between different time series models in COVID-19 context is conducted and analyzed. The results show that simple deep learning models can achieve comparable or better performance when compared with more complicated models. We are currently integrating our methods as a part of our weekly forecasts that we provide state and federal authorities.
The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed mobile health applications and telemedicine from nice to have tools into essential healthcare infrastructure. This need is particularly great for the elderly who, due to their greater risk for infection, may avoid medical facilities or be required to self-isolate. These are also the very groups at highest risk for cognitive decline. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic artificially intelligent conversational agents were employed by hospitals and government agencies (such as the CDC) to field queries from patients about symptoms and treatments. Digital health tools also proved invaluable to provide neuropsychiatric and psychological self-help to people isolated at home or in retirement centers and nursing homes.
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus. It is similar to influenza viruses and raises concerns through alarming levels of spread and severity resulting in an ongoing pandemic worldwide. Within eight months (by August 2020), it infected 24.0 million persons worldwide and over 824 thousand have died. Drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are very helpful in handling the COVID-19 pandemic. This work investigates the drone-based systems, COVID-19 pandemic situations, and proposes an architecture for handling pandemic situations in different scenarios using real-time and simulation-based scenarios. The proposed architecture uses wearable sensors to record the observations in Body Area Networks (BANs) in a push-pull data fetching mechanism. The proposed architecture is found to be useful in remote and highly congested pandemic areas where either the wireless or Internet connectivity is a major issue or chances of COVID-19 spreading are high. It collects and stores the substantial amount of data in a stipulated period and helps to take appropriate action as and when required. In real-time drone-based healthcare system implementation for COVID-19 operations, it is observed that a large area can be covered for sanitization, thermal image collection, and patient identification within a short period (2 KMs within 10 minutes approx.) through aerial route. In the simulation, the same statistics are observed with an addition of collision-resistant strategies working successfully for indoor and outdoor healthcare operations. Further, open challenges are identified and promising research directions are highlighted.
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