No Arabic abstract
Each year there are nearly 57 million deaths around the world, with over 2.7 million in the United States. Timely, accurate and complete death reporting is critical in public health, as institutions and government agencies rely on death reports to analyze vital statistics and to formulate responses to communicable diseases. Inaccurate death reporting may result in potential misdirection of public health policies. Determining the causes of death is, nevertheless, challenging even for experienced physicians. To facilitate physicians in accurately reporting causes of death, we present an advanced AI approach to determine a chronically ordered sequence of clinical conditions that lead to death, based on decedents last hospital discharge record. The sequence of clinical codes on the death report is named as causal chain of death, coded in the tenth revision of International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD-10); in line with the ICD-9-CM Official Guidelines for Coding and Reporting, the priority-ordered clinical conditions on the discharge record are coded in ICD-9. We identify three challenges in proposing the causal chain of death: t
Neural machine translation (NMT) usually works in a seq2seq learning way by viewing either source or target sentence as a linear sequence of words, which can be regarded as a special case of graph, taking words in the sequence as nodes and relationships between words as edges. In the light of the current NMT models more or less capture graph information among the sequence in a latent way, we present a graph-to-sequence model facilitating explicit graph information capturing. In detail, we propose a graph-based SAN-based NMT model called Graph-Transformer by capturing information of subgraphs of different orders in every layers. Subgraphs are put into different groups according to their orders, and every group of subgraphs respectively reflect different levels of dependency between words. For fusing subgraph representations, we empirically explore three methods which weight different groups of subgraphs of different orders. Results of experiments on WMT14 English-German and IWSLT14 German-English show that our method can effectively boost the Transformer with an improvement of 1.1 BLEU points on WMT14 English-German dataset and 1.0 BLEU points on IWSLT14 German-English dataset.
Classical Machine Learning (ML) pipelines often comprise of multiple ML models where models, within a pipeline, are trained in isolation. Conversely, when training neural network models, layers composing the neural models are simultaneously trained using backpropagation. We argue that the isolated training scheme of ML pipelines is sub-optimal, since it cannot jointly optimize multiple components. To this end, we propose a framework that translates a pre-trained ML pipeline into a neural network and fine-tunes the ML models within the pipeline jointly using backpropagation. Our experiments show that fine-tuning of the translated pipelines is a promising technique able to increase the final accuracy.
In this paper, we present Neural Phrase-based Machine Translation (NPMT). Our method explicitly models the phrase structures in output sequences using Sleep-WAke Networks (SWAN), a recently proposed segmentation-based sequence modeling method. To mitigate the monotonic alignment requirement of SWAN, we introduce a new layer to perform (soft) local reordering of input sequences. Different from existing neural machine translation (NMT) approaches, NPMT does not use attention-based decoding mechanisms. Instead, it directly outputs phrases in a sequential order and can decode in linear time. Our experiments show that NPMT achieves superior performances on IWSLT 2014 German-English/English-German and IWSLT 2015 English-Vietnamese machine translation tasks compared with strong NMT baselines. We also observe that our method produces meaningful phrases in output languages.
We present an empirical study of scaling properties of encoder-decoder Transformer models used in neural machine translation (NMT). We show that cross-entropy loss as a function of model size follows a certain scaling law. Specifically (i) We propose a formula which describes the scaling behavior of cross-entropy loss as a bivariate function of encoder and decoder size, and show that it gives accurate predictions under a variety of scaling approaches and languages; we show that the total number of parameters alone is not sufficient for such purposes. (ii) We observe different power law exponents when scaling the decoder vs scaling the encoder, and provide recommendations for optimal allocation of encoder/decoder capacity based on this observation. (iii) We also report that the scaling behavior of the model is acutely influenced by composition bias of the train/test sets, which we define as any deviation from naturally generated text (either via machine generated or human translated text). We observe that natural text on the target side enjoys scaling, which manifests as successful reduction of the cross-entropy loss. (iv) Finally, we investigate the relationship between the cross-entropy loss and the quality of the generated translations. We find two different behaviors, depending on the nature of the test data. For test sets which were originally translated from target language to source language, both loss and BLEU score improve as model size increases. In contrast, for test sets originally translated from source language to target language, the loss improves, but the BLEU score stops improving after a certain threshold. We release generated text from all models used in this study.
Causal machine-learning is about predicting the net-effect (true-lift) of treatments. Given the data of a treatment group and a control group, it is similar to a standard supervised-learning problem. Unfortunately, there is no similarly well-defined loss function due to the lack of point-wise true values in the data. Many advances in modern machine-learning are not directly applicable due to the absence of such loss function. We propose a novel method to define a loss function in this context, which is equal to mean-square-error (MSE) in a standard regression problem. Our loss function is universally applicable, thus providing a general standard to evaluate the quality of any model/strategy that predicts the true-lift. We demonstrate that despite its novel definition, one can still perform gradient descent directly on this loss function to find the best fit. This leads to a new way to train any parameter-based model, such as deep neural networks, to solve causal machine-learning problems without going through the meta-learner strategy.