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Register a new userPopulation Susceptibility Variation and Its Effect on Contagion Dynamics
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Susceptibility governs the dynamics of contagion. The classical SIR model is one of the simplest compartmental models of contagion spread, assuming a single shared susceptibility level. However, variation in susceptibility over a population can fundamentally affect the dynamics of contagion and thus the ultimate outcome of a pandemic. We develop mathematical machinery which explicitly considers susceptibility variation, illuminates how the susceptibility distribution is sculpted by contagion, and thence how such variation affects the SIR differential questions that govern contagion. Our methods allow us to derive closed form expressions for herd immunity thresholds as a function of initial susceptibility distributions and suggests an intuitively satisfying approach to inoculation when only a fraction of the population is accessible to such intervention. Of particular interest, if we assume static susceptibility of individuals in the susceptible pool, ignoring susceptibility diversity {em always} results in overestimation of the herd immunity threshold and that difference can be dramatic. Therefore, we should develop robust measures of susceptibility variation as part of public health strategies for handling pandemics.
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The dynamics of a mosquito population depends heavily on climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Since climate change models predict that global warming will impact on the frequency and intensity of rainfall, it is important to understand how these variables affect the mosquito populations. We present a model of the dynamics of a {it Culex quinquefasciatus} mosquito population that incorporates the effect of rainfall and use it to study the influence of the number of rainy days and the mean monthly precipitation on the maximum yearly abundance of mosquitoes $M_{max}$. Additionally, using a fracturing process, we investigate the influence of the variability in daily rainfall on $M_{max}$. We find that, given a constant value of monthly precipitation, there is an optimum number of rainy days for which $M_{max}$ is a maximum. On the other hand, we show that increasing daily rainfall variability reduces the dependence of $M_{max}$ on the number of rainy days, leading also to a higher abundance of mosquitoes for the case of low mean monthly precipitation. Finally, we explore the effect of the rainfall in the months preceding the wettest season, and we obtain that a regimen with high precipitations throughout the year and a higher variability tends to advance slightly the time at which the peak mosquito abundance occurs, but could significantly change the total mosquito abundance in a year.
Many socio-economic and biological processes can be modeled as systems of interacting individuals. The behaviour of such systems can be often described within game-theoretic models. In these lecture notes, we introduce fundamental concepts of evolutionary game theory and review basic properties of deterministic replicator dynamics and stochastic dynamics of finite populations. We discuss stability of equilibria in deterministic dynamics with migration, time-delay, and in stochastic dynamics of well-mixed populations and spatial games with local interactions. We analyze the dependence of the long-run behaviour of a population on various parameters such as the time delay, the noise level, and the size of the population.
Many questions that we have about the history and dynamics of organisms have a geographical component: How many are there, and where do they live? How do they move and interbreed across the landscape? How were they moving a thousand years ago, and where were the ancestors of a particular individual alive today? Answers to these questions can have profound consequences for our understanding of history, ecology, and the evolutionary process. In this review, we discuss how geographic aspects of the distribution, movement, and reproduction of organisms are reflected in their pedigree across space and time. Because the structure of the pedigree is what determines patterns of relatedness in modern genetic variation, our aim is to thus provide intuition for how these processes leave an imprint in genetic data. We also highlight some current methods and gaps in the statistical toolbox of spatial population genetics.
Population dynamics of a competitive two-species system under the influence of random events are analyzed and expressions for the steady-state population mean, fluctuations, and cross-correlation of the two species are presented. It is shown that random events cause the population mean of each specie to make smooth transition from far above to far below of its growth rate threshold. At the same time, the population mean of the weaker specie never reaches the extinction point. It is also shown that, as a result of competition, the relative population fluctuations do not die out as the growth rates of both species are raised far above their respective thresholds. This behavior is most remarkable at the maximum competition point where the weaker species population statistics becomes completely chaotic regardless of how far its growth rate in raised.
We consider age-structured models with an imposed refractory period between births. These models can be used to formulate alternative population control strategies to Chinas one-child policy. By allowing any number of births, but with an imposed delay between births, we show how the total population can be decreased and how a relatively younger age distribution generated. This delay represents a more continuous form of population management for which the one-child policy is a limiting case. Such a policy approach could be more easily accepted by society. We also propose alternative birth rate functions that might result from a societal response to imposed refractory periods. Our numerical and asymptotic analyses provides an initial framework for studying demographics and how social dynamics influences population structure.
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