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Register a new userHMcode-2020: Improved modelling of non-linear cosmological power spectra with baryonic feedback
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We present an updated version of the HMcode augmented halo model that can be used to make accurate predictions of the non-linear matter power spectrum over a wide range of cosmologies. Major improvements include modelling of BAO damping in the power spectrum and an updated treatment of massive neutrinos. We fit our model to simulated power spectra and show that we can match the results with an RMS error of 2.5 per cent across a range of cosmologies, scales $k < 10,hmathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, and redshifts $z<2$. The error rarely exceeds 5 per cent and never exceeds 16 per cent. The worst-case errors occur at $zsimeq2$, or for cosmologies with unusual dark-energy equations of state. This represents a significant improvement over previo
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Upcoming measurements of the small-scale primary cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectra ($TT$/$TE$/$EE$) are anticipated to yield transformative constraints on new physics, including the effective number of relativistic species in the early universe ($N_{rm eff}$). However, at multipoles $ell gtrsim 3000$, the primary CMB power spectra receive significant contributions from gravitational lensing. While these modes still carry primordial information, their theoretical modeling requires knowledge of the CMB lensing convergence power spectrum, $C_L^{kappakappa}$, including on small scales where it is affected by nonlinear gravitational evolution and baryonic feedback processes. Thus, the high-$ell$ primary CMB is sensitive to these late-time, nonlinear effects. Here, we show that inaccuracies in the modeling of $C_L^{kappakappa}$ can yield surprisingly large biases on cosmological parameters inferred from the primary CMB power spectra measured by the upcoming Simons Observatory and CMB-S4 experiments. For CMB-S4, the biases can be as large as $1.6sigma$ on the Hubble constant $H_0$ in a fit to $Lambda$CDM and $1.2sigma$ on $N_{rm eff}$ in a fit to $Lambda$CDM+$N_{rm eff}$. We show that these biases can be mitigated by explicitly discarding all $TT$ data at $ell>3000$ or by marginalizing over parameters describing baryonic feedback processes, both at the cost of slightly larger error bars. We also discuss an alternative, data-driven mitigation strategy based on delensing the CMB $T$ and $E$-mode maps. Finally, we show that analyses of upcoming data will require Einstein-Boltzmann codes to be run with much higher numerical precision settings than is currently standard, so as to avoid similar -- or larger -- parameter biases due to inaccurate theoretical predictions.
Observational cosmology in the next decade will rely on probes of the distribution of matter in the redshift range between $0<z<3$ to elucidate the nature of dark matter and dark energy. In this redshift range, galaxy formation is known to have a significant impact on observables such as two-point correlations of galaxy shapes and positions, altering their amplitude and scale dependence beyond the expected statistical uncertainty of upcoming experiments at separations under 10 Mpc. Successful extraction of information in such a regime thus requires, at the very least, unbiased models for the impact of galaxy formation on the matter distribution, and can benefit from complementary observational priors. This work reviews the current state of the art in the modelling of baryons for cosmology, from numerical methods to approximate analytical prescriptions, and makes recommendations for studies in the next decade, including a discussion of potential probe combinations that can help constrain the role of baryons in cosmological studies. We focus, in particular, on the modelling of the matter power spectrum, $P(k,z)$, as a function of scale and redshift, and of the observables derived from this quantity. This work is the result of a workshop held at the University of Oxford in November of 2018.
Future galaxy clustering surveys will probe small scales where non-linearities become important. Since the number of modes accessible on intermediate to small scales is very high, having a precise model at these scales is important especially in the context of discriminating alternative cosmological models from the standard one. In the mildly non-linear regime, such models typically differ from each other, and galaxy clustering data will become very precise on these scales in the near future. As the observable quantity is the angular power spectrum in redshift space, it is important to study the effects of non-linear density and redshift space distortion (RSD) in the angular power spectrum. We compute non-linear contributions to the angular power spectrum using a flat-sky approximation that we introduce in this work, and compare the results of different perturbative approaches with $N$-body simulations. We find that the TNS perturbative approach is significantly closer to the $N$-body result than Eulerian or Lagrangian 1-loop approximations, effective field theory of large scale structure or a halofit-inspired model. However, none of these prescriptions is accurate enough to model the angular power spectrum well into the non-linear regime. In addition, for narrow redshift bins, $Delta z lesssim 0.01$, the angular power spectrum acquires non-linear contributions on all scales, right down to $ell=2$, and is hence not a reliable tool at this time. To overcome this problem, we need to model non-linear RSD terms, for example as TNS does, but for a matter power spectrum that remains reasonably accurate well into the deeply non-linear regime, such as halofit.
In the context of forthcoming galaxy surveys, to ensure unbiased constraints on cosmology and gravity when using non-linear structure information, percent-level accuracy is required when modelling the power spectrum. This calls for frameworks that can accurately capture the relevant physical effects, while allowing for deviations from $Lambda$CDM. Massive neutrino and baryonic physics are two of the most relevant such effects. We present an integration of the halo model reaction frameworks for massive neutrinos and beyond-$Lambda$CDM cosmologies. The integrated halo model reaction, combined with a pseudo power spectrum modelled by HMCode2020 is then compared against $N$-body simulations that include both massive neutrinos and an $f(R)$ modification to gravity. We find that the framework is 5% accurate down to at least $kapprox 3 , h/{rm Mpc}$ for a modification to gravity of $|f_{rm R0}|leq 10^{-5}$ and for the total neutrino mass $M_ u equiv sum m_ u leq 0.15$ eV. We also find that the framework is 4(1)% consistent with the Bacco (EuclidEmulator2) emulator for $ u w$CDM cosmologies down to at least $k approx 3 , h$/Mpc. Finally, we compare against hydrodynamical simulations employing HMCode2020s baryonic feedback modelling on top of the halo model reaction. For $ u Lambda$CDM cosmologies we find 2% accuracy for $M_ u leq 0.48$eV down to at least $kapprox 5h$/Mpc. Similar accuracy is found when comparing to $ u w$CDM hydrodynamical simulations with $M_ u = 0.06$eV. This offers the first non-linear and theoretically general means of accurately including massive neutrinos for beyond-$Lambda$CDM cosmologies, and further suggests that baryonic effects can be reliably modelled independently of massive neutrino and dark energy physics. These extensions have been integrated into the publicly available ReACT code.
Accurate knowledge of the effect of feedback from galaxy formation on the matter distribution is a key requirement for future weak lensing experiments. Recent studies using hydrodynamic simulations have shown that different baryonic feedback scenarios lead to significantly different two-point shear statistics. In this paper we extend earlier work to three-point shear statistics. We show that, relative to the predictions of dark matter only models, the amplitude of the signal can be reduced by as much as 30-40% on scales of a few arcminutes. We find that baryonic feedback may affect two- and three-point shear statistics differently and demonstrate that this can be used to assess the fidelity of various feedback models. In particular, upcoming surveys such as Euclid might be able to discriminate between different feedback models by measuring both second- and third-order statistics. Because it will likely remain impossible to predict baryonic feedback with high accuracy from first principles, we argue in favour of phenomenological models that can capture the relevant effects of baryonic feedback processes in addition to changes in cosmology. We construct such a model by modifying the dark matter-only halo model to characterise the generic effects of energetic feedback using a small number of parameters. We use this model to perform a likelihood analysis in a simplified case in which two- and three-point shear statistics are measured between 0.5 and 20 arcmin and in which the amplitude of fluctuations, sigma8, the matter density parameter, Om, and the dark energy parameter, w0, are the only unknown free parameters. We demonstrate that for weak lensing surveys such as Euclid, marginalising over the feedbac parameters describing the effects of baryonic processes, such as outflows driven by feedback from star formation and AGN, may be able to mitigate the bias affecting Om, sigma8 and w0.
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