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Register a new userNonparametric Conditional Density Estimation In A Deep Learning Framework For Short-Term Forecasting
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Short-term forecasting is an important tool in understanding environmental processes. In this paper, we incorporate machine learning algorithms into a conditional distribution estimator for the purposes of forecasting tropical cyclone intensity. Many machine learning techniques give a single-point prediction of the conditional distribution of the target variable, which does not give a full accounting of the prediction variability. Conditional distribution estimation can provide extra insight on predicted response behavior, which could influence decision-making and policy. We propose a technique that simultaneously estimates the entire conditional distribution and flexibly allows for machine learning techniques to be incorporated. A smooth model is fit over both the target variable and covariates, and a logistic transformation is applied on the model output layer to produce an expression of the conditional density function. We provide two examples of machine learning models that can be used, polynomial regression and deep learning models. To achieve computational efficiency we propose a case-control sampling approximation to the conditional distribution. A simulation study for four different data distributions highlights the effectiveness of our method compared to other machine learning-based conditional distribution estimation techniques. We then demonstrate the utility of our approach for forecasting purposes using tropical cyclone data from the Atlantic Seaboard. This paper gives a proof of concept for the promise of our method, further computational developments can fully unlock its insights in more complex forecasting and other applications.
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We present in this paper a model for forecasting short-term power loads based on deep residual networks. The proposed model is able to integrate domain knowledge and researchers understanding of the task by virtue of different neural network building blocks. Specifically, a modified deep residual network is formulated to improve the forecast results. Further, a two-stage ensemble strategy is used to enhance the generalization capability of the proposed model. We also apply the proposed model to probabilistic load forecasting using Monte Carlo dropout. Three public datasets are used to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model. Multiple test cases and comparison with existing models show that the proposed model is able to provide accurate load forecasting results and has high generalization capability.
Conditional density estimation generalizes regression by modeling a full density f(yjx) rather than only the expected value E(yjx). This is important for many tasks, including handling multi-modality and generating prediction intervals. Though fundamental and widely applicable, nonparametric conditional density estimators have received relatively little attention from statisticians and little or none from the machine learning community. None of that work has been applied to greater than bivariate data, presumably due to the computational difficulty of data-driven bandwidth selection. We describe the double kernel conditional density estimator and derive fast dual-tree-based algorithms for bandwidth selection using a maximum likelihood criterion. These techniques give speedups of up to 3.8 million in our experiments, and enable the first applications to previously intractable large multivariate datasets, including a redshift prediction problem from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.
Modelling statistical relationships beyond the conditional mean is crucial in many settings. Conditional density estimation (CDE) aims to learn the full conditional probability density from data. Though highly expressive, neural network based CDE models can suffer from severe over-fitting when trained with the maximum likelihood objective. Due to the inherent structure of such models, classical regularization approaches in the parameter space are rendered ineffective. To address this issue, we develop a model-agnostic noise regularization method for CDE that adds random perturbations to the data during training. We demonstrate that the proposed approach corresponds to a smoothness regularization and prove its asymptotic consistency. In our experiments, noise regularization significantly and consistently outperforms other regularization methods across seven data sets and three CDE models. The effectiveness of noise regularization makes neural network based CDE the preferable method over previous non- and semi-parametric approaches, even when training data is scarce.
Random forests is a common non-parametric regression technique which performs well for mixed-type data and irrelevant covariates, while being robust to monotonic variable transformations. Existing random forest implementations target regression or classification. We introduce the RFCDE package for fitting random forest models optimized for nonparametric conditional density estimation, including joint densities for multiple responses. This enables analysis of conditional probability distributions which is useful for propagating uncertainty and of joint distributions that describe relationships between multiple responses and covariates. RFCDE is released under the MIT open-source license and can be accessed at https://github.com/tpospisi/rfcde . Both R and Pyth
We develop a probabilistic framework for deep learning based on the Deep Rendering Mixture Model (DRMM), a new generative probabilistic model that explicitly capture variations in data due to latent task nuisance variables. We demonstrate that max-sum inference in the DRMM yields an algorithm that exactly reproduces the operations in deep convolutional neural networks (DCNs), providing a first principles derivation. Our framework provides new insights into the successes and shortcomings of DCNs as well as a principled route to their improvement. DRMM training via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful alternative to DCN back-propagation, and initial training results are promising. Classification based on the DRMM and other variants outperforms DCNs in supervised digit classification, training 2-3x faster while achieving similar accuracy. Moreover, the DRMM is applicable to semi-supervised and unsupervised learning tasks, achieving results that are state-of-the-art in several categories on the MNIST benchmark and comparable to state of the art on the CIFAR10 benchmark.
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