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Register a new userA Probabilistic Framework for Deep Learning
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We develop a probabilistic framework for deep learning based on the Deep Rendering Mixture Model (DRMM), a new generative probabilistic model that explicitly capture variations in data due to latent task nuisance variables. We demonstrate that max-sum inference in the DRMM yields an algorithm that exactly reproduces the operations in deep convolutional neural networks (DCNs), providing a first principles derivation. Our framework provides new insights into the successes and shortcomings of DCNs as well as a principled route to their improvement. DRMM training via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful alternative to DCN back-propagation, and initial training results are promising. Classification based on the DRMM and other variants outperforms DCNs in supervised digit classification, training 2-3x faster while achieving similar accuracy. Moreover, the DRMM is applicable to semi-supervised and unsupervised learning tasks, achieving results that are state-of-the-art in several categories on the MNIST benchmark and comparable to state of the art on the CIFAR10 benchmark.
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We present a probabilistic variant of the recently introduced maxout unit. The success of deep neural networks utilizing maxout can partly be attributed to favorable performance under dropout, when compared to rectified linear units. It however also depends on the fact that each maxout unit performs a pooling operation over a group of linear transformations and is thus partially invariant to changes in its input. Starting from this observation we ask the question: Can the desirable properties of maxout units be preserved while improving their invariance properties ? We argue that our probabilistic maxout (probout) units successfully achieve this balance. We quantitatively verify this claim and report classification performance matching or exceeding the current state of the art on three challenging image classification benchmarks (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and SVHN).
Conventional uncertainty quantification methods usually lacks the capability of dealing with high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. This paper presents a semi-supervised learning framework for dimension reduction and reliability analysis. An autoencoder is first adopted for mapping the high-dimensional space into a low-dimensional latent space, which contains a distinguishable failure surface. Then a deep feedforward neural network (DFN) is utilized to learn the mapping relationship and reconstruct the latent space, while the Gaussian process (GP) modeling technique is used to build the surrogate model of the transformed limit state function. During the training process of the DFN, the discrepancy between the actual and reconstructed latent space is minimized through semi-supervised learning for ensuring the accuracy. Both labeled and unlabeled samples are utilized for defining the loss function of the DFN. Evolutionary algorithm is adopted to train the DFN, then the Monte Carlo simulation method is used for uncertainty quantification and reliability analysis based on the proposed framework. The effectiveness is demonstrated through a mathematical example.
Short-term forecasting is an important tool in understanding environmental processes. In this paper, we incorporate machine learning algorithms into a conditional distribution estimator for the purposes of forecasting tropical cyclone intensity. Many machine learning techniques give a single-point prediction of the conditional distribution of the target variable, which does not give a full accounting of the prediction variability. Conditional distribution estimation can provide extra insight on predicted response behavior, which could influence decision-making and policy. We propose a technique that simultaneously estimates the entire conditional distribution and flexibly allows for machine learning techniques to be incorporated. A smooth model is fit over both the target variable and covariates, and a logistic transformation is applied on the model output layer to produce an expression of the conditional density function. We provide two examples of machine learning models that can be used, polynomial regression and deep learning models. To achieve computational efficiency we propose a case-control sampling approximation to the conditional distribution. A simulation study for four different data distributions highlights the effectiveness of our method compared to other machine learning-based conditional distribution estimation techniques. We then demonstrate the utility of our approach for forecasting purposes using tropical cyclone data from the Atlantic Seaboard. This paper gives a proof of concept for the promise of our method, further computational developments can fully unlock its insights in more complex forecasting and other applications.
We investigate a correspondence between two formalisms for discrete probabilistic modeling: probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) and tensor networks (TNs), a powerful modeling framework for simulating complex quantum systems. The graphical calculus of PGMs and TNs exhibits many similarities, with discrete undirected graphical models (UGMs) being a special case of TNs. However, more general probabilistic TN models such as Born machines (BMs) employ complex-valued hidden states to produce novel forms of correlation among the probabilities. While representing a new modeling resource for capturing structure in discrete probability distributions, this behavior also renders the direct application of standard PGM tools impossible. We aim to bridge this gap by introducing a hybrid PGM-TN formalism that integrates quantum-like correlations into PGM models in a principled manner, using the physically-motivated concept of decoherence. We first prove that applying decoherence to the entirety of a BM model converts it into a discrete UGM, and conversely, that any subgraph of a discrete UGM can be represented as a decohered BM. This method allows a broad family of probabilistic TN models to be encoded as partially decohered BMs, a fact we leverage to combine the representational strengths of both model families. We experimentally verify the performance of such hybrid models in a sequential modeling task, and identify promising uses of our method within the context of existing applications of graphical models.
This paper introduces a new framework for data efficient and versatile learning. Specifically: 1) We develop ML-PIP, a general framework for Meta-Learning approximate Probabilistic Inference for Prediction. ML-PIP extends existing probabilistic interpretations of meta-learning to cover a broad class of methods. 2) We introduce VERSA, an instance of the framework employing a flexible and versatile amortization network that takes few-shot learning datasets as inputs, with arbitrary numbers of shots, and outputs a distribution over task-specific parameters in a single forward pass. VERSA substitutes optimization at test time with forward passes through inference networks, amortizing the cost of inference and relieving the need for second derivatives during training. 3) We evaluate VERSA on benchmark datasets where the method sets new state-of-the-art results, handles arbitrary numbers of shots, and for classification, arbitrary numbers of classes at train and test time. The power of the approach is then demonstrated through a challenging few-shot ShapeNet view reconstruction task.
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