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Register a new userData-Driven Option Pricing using Single and Multi-Asset Supervised Learning
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Anindya Goswami Mr.
Publication date
2020
fields
Financial
and research's language is
English
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We propose three different data-driven approaches for pricing European-style call options using supervised machine-learning algorithms. These approaches yield models that give a range of fair prices instead of a single price point. The performance of the models are tested on two stock market indices: NIFTY$50$ and BANKNIFTY from the Indian equity market. Although neither historical nor implied volatility is used as an input, the results show that the trained models have been able to capture the option pricing mechanism better than or similar to the Black-Scholes formula for all the experiments. Our choice of scale free I/O allows us to train models using combined data of multiple different assets from a financial market. This not only allows the models to achieve far better generalization and predictive capability, but also solves the problem of paucity of data, the primary limitation of using machine learning techniques. We also illustrate the performance of the trained models in the period leading up to the 2020 Stock Market Crash (Jan 2019 to April 2020).
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Pricing of financial derivatives, in particular early exercisable options such as Bermudan options, is an important but heavy numerical task in financial institutions, and its speed-up will provide a large business impact. Recently, applications of quantum computing to financial problems have been started to be investigated. In this paper, we first propose a quantum algorithm for Bermudan option pricing. This method performs the approximation of the continuation value, which is a crucial part of Bermudan option pricing, by Chebyshev interpolation, using the values at interpolation nodes estimated by quantum amplitude estimation. In this method, the number of calls to the oracle to generate underlying asset price paths scales as $widetilde{O}(epsilon^{-1})$, where $epsilon$ is the error tolerance of the option price. This means the quadratic speed-up compared with classical Monte Carlo-based methods such as least-squares Monte Carlo, in which the oracle call number is $widetilde{O}(epsilon^{-2})$.
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