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Register a new userAdaptive Wave Models for Option Pricing Evolution: Nonlinear and Quantum Schrodinger Approaches
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Vladimir Ivancevic
Publication date
2010
fields
Financial
and research's language is
English
Authors
Vladimir G. Ivancevic
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Adaptive wave model for financial option pricing is proposed, as a high-complexity alternative to the standard Black--Scholes model. The new option-pricing model, representing a controlled Brownian motion, includes two wave-type approaches: nonlinear and quantum, both based on (adaptive form of) the Schrodinger equation. The nonlinear approach comes in two flavors: (i) for the case of constant volatility, it is defined by a single adaptive nonlinear Schrodinger (NLS) equation, while for the case of stochastic volatility, it is defined by an adaptive Manakov system of two coupled NLS equations. The linear quantum approach is defined in terms of de Broglies plane waves and free-particle Schrodinger equation. In this approach, financial variables have quantum-mechanical interpretation and satisfy the Heisenberg-type uncertainty relations. Both models are capable of successful fitting of the Black--Scholes data, as well as defining Greeks. Keywords: Black--Scholes option pricing, adaptive nonlinear Schrodinger equation, adaptive Manakov system, quantum-mechanical option pricing, market-heat potential PACS: 89.65.Gh, 05.45.Yv, 03.65.Ge
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A nonlinear wave alternative for the standard Black-Scholes option-pricing model is presented. The adaptive-wave model, representing controlled Brownian behavior of financial markets, is formally defined by adaptive nonlinear Schrodinger (NLS) equations, defining the option-pricing wave function in terms of the stock price and time. The model includes two parameters: volatility (playing the role of dispersion frequency coefficient), which can be either fixed or stochastic, and adaptive market potential that depends on the interest rate. The wave function represents quantum probability amplitude, whose absolute square is probability density function. Four types of analytical solutions of the NLS equation are provided in terms of Jacobi elliptic functions, all starting from de Broglies plane-wave packet associated with the free quantum-mechanical particle. The best agreement with the Black-Scholes model shows the adaptive shock-wave NLS-solution, which can be efficiently combined with adaptive solitary-wave NLS-solution. Adjustable weights of the adaptive market-heat potential are estimated using either unsupervised Hebbian learning, or supervised Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. In the case of stochastic volatility, it is itself represented by the wave function, so we come to the so-called Manakov system of two coupled NLS equations (that admits closed-form solutions), with the common adaptive market potential, which defines a bidirectional spatio-temporal associative memory. Keywords: Black-Scholes option pricing, adaptive nonlinear Schrodinger equation, market heat potential, controlled stochastic volatility, adaptive Manakov system, controlled Brownian behavior
We consider option pricing using a discrete-time Markov switching stochastic volatility with co-jump model, which can model volatility clustering and varying mean-reversion speeds of volatility. For pricing European options, we develop a computationally efficient method for obtaining the probability distribution of average integrated variance (AIV), which is key to option pricing under stochastic-volatility-type models. Building upon the efficiency of the European option pricing approach, we are able to price an American-style option, by converting its pricing into the pricing of a portfolio of European options. Our work also provides constructive guidance for analyzing derivatives based on variance, e.g., the variance swap. Numerical results indicate our methods can be implemented very efficiently and accurately.
Recently, a novel adaptive wave model for financial option pricing has been proposed in the form of adaptive nonlinear Schr{o}dinger (NLS) equation [Ivancevic a], as a high-complexity alternative to the linear Black-Scholes-Merton model [Black-Scholes-Merton]. Its quantum-mechanical basis has been elaborated in [Ivancevic b]. Both the solitary and shock-wave solutions of the nonlinear model, as well as its linear (periodic) quantum simplification are shown to successfully fit the Black-Scholes data, and define the financial Greeks. This initial wave model (called the Ivancevic option pricing model) has been further extended in [Yan], by providing the new NLS solutions in the form of rogue waves (one-rogon and two-rogon solutions). In this letter, I propose a new financial research program, with a goal to develop a general wave-type model for realistic option-pricing prediction and control. Keywords: General option-price wave modeling, new financial research program
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