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Register a new userBitcoin Transaction Forecasting with Deep Network Representation Learning
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Wenqi Wei
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Bitcoin and its decentralized computing paradigm for digital currency trading are one of the most disruptive technology in the 21st century. This paper presents a novel approach to developing a Bitcoin transaction forecast model, DLForecast, by leveraging deep neural networks for learning Bitcoin transaction network representations. DLForecast makes three original contributions. First, we explore three interesting properties between Bitcoin transaction accounts: topological connectivity pattern of Bitcoin accounts, transaction amount pattern, and transaction dynamics. Second, we construct a time-decaying reachability graph and a time-decaying transaction pattern graph, aiming at capturing different types of spatial-temporal Bitcoin transaction patterns. Third, we employ node embedding on both graphs and develop a Bitcoin transaction forecasting system between user accounts based on historical transactions with built-in time-decaying factor. To maintain an effective transaction forecasting performance, we leverage the multiplicative model update (MMU) ensemble to combine prediction models built on different transaction features extracted from each corresponding Bitcoin transaction graph. Evaluated on real-world Bitcoin transaction data, we show that our spatial-temporal forecasting model is efficient with fast runtime and effective with forecasting accuracy over 60% and improves the prediction performance by 50% when compared to forecasting model built on the static graph baseline.
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Network representation learning (NRL) is an effective graph analytics technique and promotes users to deeply understand the hidden characteristics of graph data. It has been successfully applied in many real-world tasks related to network science, such as social network data processing, biological information processing, and recommender systems. Deep Learning is a powerful tool to learn data features. However, it is non-trivial to generalize deep learning to graph-structured data since it is different from the regular data such as pictures having spatial information and sounds having temporal information. Recently, researchers proposed many deep learning-based methods in the area of NRL. In this survey, we investigate classical NRL from traditional feature learning method to the deep learning-based model, analyze relationships between them, and summarize the latest progress. Finally, we discuss open issues considering NRL and point out the future directions in this field.
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