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Register a new userSupervised learning from noisy observations: Combining machine-learning techniques with data assimilation
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Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of research data-assimilation has been successfully used to optimally combine forecast models and their inherent uncertainty with incoming noisy observations. The key idea in our work here is to achieve increased forecast capabilities by judiciously combining machine-learning algorithms and data assimilation. We combine the physics-agnostic data-driven approach of random feature maps as a forecast model within an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation procedure. The machine-learning model is learned sequentially by incorporating incoming noisy observations. We show that the obtained forecast model has remarkably good forecast skill while being computationally cheap once trained. Going beyond the task of forecasting, we show that our method can be used to generate reliable ensembles for probabilistic forecasting as well as to learn effective model closure in multi-scale systems.
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We present a supervised learning method to learn the propagator map of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. In our computationally cheap and easy-to-implement framework a neural network consisting of random feature maps is trained sequentially by incoming observations within a data assimilation procedure. By employing Takens embedding theorem, the network is trained on delay coordinates. We show that the combination of random feature maps and data assimilation, called RAFDA, outperforms standard random feature maps for which the dynamics is learned using batch data.
In statistical data assimilation (SDA) and supervised machine learning (ML), we wish to transfer information from observations to a model of the processes underlying those observations. For SDA, the model consists of a set of differential equations that describe the dynamics of a physical system. For ML, the model is usually constructed using other strategies. In this paper, we develop a systematic formulation based on Monte Carlo sampling to achieve such information transfer. Following the derivation of an appropriate target distribution, we present the formulation based on the standard Metropolis-Hasting (MH) procedure and the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method for performing the high dimensional integrals that appear. To the extensive literature on MH and HMC, we add (1) an annealing method using a hyperparameter that governs the precision of the model to identify and explore the highest probability regions of phase space dominating those integrals, and (2) a strategy for initializing the state space search. The efficacy of the proposed formulation is demonstrated using a nonlinear dynamical model with chaotic solutions widely used in geophysics.
A novel method, based on the combination of data assimilation and machine learning is introduced. The new hybrid approach is designed for a two-fold scope: (i) emulating hidden, possibly chaotic, dynamics and (ii) predicting their future states. The method consists in applying iteratively a data assimilation step, here an ensemble Kalman filter, and a neural network. Data assimilation is used to optimally combine a surrogate model with sparse noisy data. The output analysis is spatially complete and is used as a training set by the neural network to update the surrogate model. The two steps are then repeated iteratively. Numerical experiments have been carried out using the chaotic 40-variables Lorenz 96 model, proving both convergence and statistical skill of the proposed hybrid approach. The surrogate model shows short-term forecast skill up to two Lyapunov times, the retrieval of positive Lyapunov exponents as well as the more energetic frequencies of the power density spectrum. The sensitivity of the method to critical setup parameters is also presented: the forecast skill decreases smoothly with increased observational noise but drops abruptly if less than half of the model domain is observed. The successful synergy between data assimilation and machine learning, proven here with a low-dimensional system, encourages further investigation of such hybrids with more sophisticated dynamics.
A method for correcting for detector smearing effects using machine learning techniques is presented. Compared to the standard approaches the method can use more than one reconstructed variable to infere the value of the unsmeared quantity on event by event basis. The method is implemented using a sequential neural network with a categorical cross entropy as the loss function. It is tested on a toy example and is shown to satisfy basic closure tests. Possible application of the method for analysis of the data from high energy physics experiments is discussed.
The promise of machine learning has been explored in a variety of scientific disciplines in the last few years, however, its application on first-principles based computationally expensive tools is still in nascent stage. Even with the advances in computational resources and power, transient simulations of large-scale dynamic systems using a variety of the first-principles based computational tools are still limited. In this work, we propose an ensemble approach where we combine one such computationally expensive tool, called discrete element method (DEM), with a time-series forecasting method called auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and machine-learning methods to significantly reduce the computational burden while retaining model accuracy and performance. The developed machine-learning model shows good predictability and agreement with the literature, demonstrating its tremendous potential in scientific computing.
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