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Register a new userPrediction-Centric Learning of Independent Cascade Dynamics from Partial Observations
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Added by
Mateusz Wilinski
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Spreading processes play an increasingly important role in modeling for diffusion networks, information propagation, marketing and opinion setting. We address the problem of learning of a spreading model such that the predictions generated from this model are accurate and could be subsequently used for the optimization, and control of diffusion dynamics. We focus on a challenging setting where full observations of the dynamics are not available, and standard approaches such as maximum likelihood quickly become intractable for large network instances. We introduce a computationally efficient algorithm, based on a scalable dynamic message-passing approach, which is able to learn parameters of the effective spreading model given only limited information on the activation times of nodes in the network. The popular Independent Cascade model is used to illustrate our approach. We show that tractable inference from the learned model generates a better prediction of marginal probabilities compared to the original model. We develop a systematic procedure for learning a mixture of models which further improves the prediction quality.
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Recently, information cascade prediction has attracted increasing interest from researchers, but it is far from being well solved partly due to the three defects of the existing works. First, the existing works often assume an underlying information diffusion model, which is impractical in real world due to the complexity of information diffusion. Second, the existing works often ignore the prediction of the infection order, which also plays an important role in social network analysis. At last, the existing works often depend on the requirement of underlying diffusion networks which are likely unobservable in practice. In this paper, we aim at the prediction of both node infection and infection order without requirement of the knowledge about the underlying diffusion mechanism and the diffusion network, where the challenges are two-fold. The first is what cascading characteristics of nodes should be captured and how to capture them, and the second is that how to model the non-linear features of nodes in information cascades. To address these challenges, we propose a novel model called Deep Collaborative Embedding (DCE) for information cascade prediction, which can capture not only the node structural property but also two kinds of node cascading characteristics. We propose an auto-encoder based collaborative embedding framework to learn the node embeddings with cascade collaboration and node collaboration, in which way the non-linearity of information cascades can be effectively captured. The results of extensive experiments conducted on real-world datasets verify the effectiveness of our approach.
We propose a detailed analysis of the online-learning problem for Independent Cascade (IC) models under node-level feedback. These models have widespread applications in modern social networks. Existing works for IC models have only shed light on edge-level feedback models, where the agent knows the explicit outcome of every observed edge. Little is known about node-level feedback models, where only combined outcomes for sets of edges are observed; in other words, the realization of each edge is censored. This censored information, together with the nonlinear form of the aggregated influence probability, make both parameter estimation and algorithm design challenging. We establish the first confidence-region result under this setting. We also develop an online algorithm achieving a cumulative regret of $mathcal{O}( sqrt{T})$, matching the theoretical regret bound for IC models with edge-level feedback.
We study the problem of learning influence functions under incomplete observations of node activations. Incomplete observations are a major concern as most (online and real-world) social networks are not fully observable. We establish both proper and improper PAC learnability of influence functions under randomly missing observations. Proper PAC learnability under the Discrete-Time Linear Threshold (DLT) and Discrete-Time Independent Cascade (DIC) models is established by reducing incomplete observations to complete observations in a modified graph. Our improper PAC learnability result applies for the DLT and DIC models as well as the Continuous-Time Independent Cascade (CIC) model. It is based on a parametrization in terms of reachability features, and also gives rise to an efficient and practical heuristic. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the ability of our method to compensate even for a fairly large fraction of missing observations.
The behaviour of information cascades (such as retweets) has been modelled extensively. While point process-based generative models have long been in use for estimating cascade growths, deep learning has greatly enhanced diverse feature integration. We observe two significant temporal signals in cascade data that have not been emphasized or reported to our knowledge. First, the popularity of the cascade root is known to influence cascade size strongly; but the effect falls off rapidly with time. Second, there is a measurable positive correlation between the novelty of the root content (with respect to a streaming external corpus) and the relative size of the resulting cascade. Responding to these observations, we propose GammaCas, a new cascade growth model as a parametric function of time, which combines deep influence signals from content (e.g., tweet text), network features (e.g., followers of the root user), and exogenous event sources (e.g., online news). Specifically, our model processes these signals through a customized recurrent network, whose states then provide the parameters of the cascade rate function, which is integrated over time to predict the cascade size. The network parameters are trained end-to-end using observed cascades. GammaCas outperforms seven recent and diverse baselines significantly on a large-scale dataset of retweet cascades coupled with time-aligned online news -- it beats the best baseline with an 18.98% increase in terms of Kendalls $tau$ correlation and $35.63$ reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Extensive ablation and case studies unearth interesting insights regarding retweet cascade dynamics.
With the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak, we characterize the nature of the growth trajectories of counties in the United States using a novel combination of spectral clustering and the correlation matrix. As the U.S. and the rest of the world are experiencing a severe second wave of infections, the importance of assigning growth membership to counties and understanding the determinants of the growth are increasingly evident. Subsequently, we select the demographic features that are most statistically significant in distinguishing the communities. Lastly, we effectively predict the future growth of a given county with an LSTM using three social distancing scores. This comprehensive study captures the nature of counties growth in cases at a very micro-level using growth communities, demographic factors, and social distancing performance to help government agencies utilize known information to make appropriate decisions regarding which potential counties to target resources and funding to.
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