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Register a new userPredicting the long-term stability of compact multiplanet systems
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We combine analytical understanding of resonant dynamics in two-planet systems with machine learning techniques to train a model capable of robustly classifying stability in compact multi-planet systems over long timescales of $10^9$ orbits. Our Stability of Planetary Orbital Configurations Klassifier (SPOCK) predicts stability using physically motivated summary statistics measured in integrations of the first $10^4$ orbits, thus achieving speed-ups of up to $10^5$ over full simulations. This computationally opens up the stability constrained characterization of multi-planet systems. Our model, trained on $approx 100,000$ three-planet systems sampled at discrete resonances, generalizes both to a sample spanning a continuous period-ratio range, as well as to a large five-planet sample with qualitatively different configurations to our training dataset. Our approach significantly outperforms previous methods based on systems angular momentum deficit, chaos indicators, and parametrized fits to numerical integrations. We use SPOCK to constrain the free eccentricities between the inner and outer pairs of planets in the Kepler-431 system of three approximately Earth-sized planets to both be below 0.05. Our stability analysis provides significantly stronger eccentricity constraints than currently achievable through either radial velocity or transit duration measurements for small planets, and within a factor of a few of systems that exhibit transit timing variations (TTVs). Given that current exoplanet detection strategies now rarely allow for strong TTV constraints (Hadden et al., 2019), SPOCK enables a powerful complementary method for precisely characterizing compact multi-planet systems. We publicly release SPOCK for community use.
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Understanding the relationship between long-period giant planets and multiple smaller short-period planets is critical for formulating a complete picture of planet formation. This work characterizes three such systems. We present Kepler-65, a system with an eccentric (e=0.28+/-0.07) giant planet companion discovered via radial velocities (RVs) exterior to a compact, multiply-transiting system of sub-Neptune planets. We also use precision RVs to improve mass and radius constraints on two other systems with similar architectures, Kepler-25 and Kepler-68. In Kepler-68 we propose a second exterior giant planet candidate. Finally, we consider the implications of these systems for planet formation models, particularly that the moderate eccentricity in Kepler-65s exterior giant planet did not disrupt its inner system.
Many discovered multiplanet systems are tightly packed. This implies that wide parameter ranges in masses and orbital elements can be dynamically unstable and ruled out. We present a case study of Kepler-23, a compact three-planet system where constraints from stability, transit timing variations (TTVs), and transit durations can be directly compared. We find that in this tightly packed system, stability can place upper limits on the masses and orbital eccentricities of the bodies that are comparable to or tighter than current state of the art methods. Specifically, stability places 68% upper limits on the orbital eccentricities of 0.09, 0.04, and 0.05 for planets $b$, $c$ and $d$, respectively. These constraints correspond to radial velocity signals $lesssim 20$ cm/s, are significantly tighter to those from transit durations, and comparable to those from TTVs. Stability also yields 68% upper limits on the masses of planets $b$, $c$ and $d$ of 2.2, 16.1, and 5.8 $M_oplus$, respectively, which were competitive with TTV constraints for the inner and outer planets. Performing this stability constrained characterization is computationally expensive with N-body integrations. We show that SPOCK, the Stability of Planetary Orbital Configurations Klassifier, is able to faithfully approximate the N-body results over 4000 times faster. We argue that such stability constrained characterization of compact systems is a challenging needle-in-a-haystack problem (requiring removal of 2500 unstable configurations for every stable one for our adopted priors) and we offer several practical recommendations for such stability analyses.
We derive a semi-analytic criterion for the presence of chaos in compact, eccentric multiplanet systems. Beyond a minimum semimajor-axis separation, below which the dynamics are chaotic at all eccentricities, we show that (i) the onset of chaos is determined by the overlap of two-body mean motion resonances (MMRs), like it is in two-planet systems; (ii) secular evolution causes the MMR widths to expand and contract adiabatically, so that the chaotic boundary is established where MMRs overlap at their greatest width. For closely spaced two-planet systems, a near-symmetry strongly suppresses this secular modulation, explaining why the chaotic boundaries for two-planet systems are qualitatively different from cases with more than two planets. We use these results to derive an improved angular-momentum-deficit (AMD) stability criterion, i.e., the critical system AMD below which stability should be guaranteed. This introduces an additional factor to the expression from Laskar and Petit (2017) that is exponential in the interplanetary separations, which corrects the AMD threshold toward lower eccentricities by a factor of several for tightly packed configurations. We make routines for evaluating the chaotic boundary available to the community through the open-source SPOCK package.
Planets are observed to orbit the component star(s) of stellar binary systems on so-called circumprimary or circumsecondary orbits, as well as around the entire binary system on so-called circumbinary orbits. Depending on the orbital parameters of the binary system a planet will be dynamically stable if it orbits within some critical separation of the semimajor axis in the circumprimary case, or beyond some critical separation for the circumbinary case. We present N-body simulations of star-forming regions that contain populations of primordial binaries to determine the fraction of binary systems that can host stable planets at various semimajor axes, and how this fraction of stable systems evolves over time. Dynamical encounters in star-forming regions can alter the orbits of some binary systems, which can induce long-term dynamical instabilities in the planetary system and can even change the size of the habitable zone(s) of the component stars. However, the overall fraction of binaries that can host stable planetary systems is not greatly affected by either the assumed binary population, or the density of the star-forming region. Instead, the critical factor in determining how many stable planetary systems exist in the Galaxy is the stellar binary fraction - the more stars that are born as singles in stellar nurseries, the higher the fraction of stable planetary systems.
We calculate and analyze the distribution of period ratios observed in systems of Kepler exoplanet candidates including studies of both adjacent planet pairs and all planet pairs. These distributions account for both the geometrical bias against detecting more distant planets and the effects of incompleteness due to planets missed by the data reduction pipeline. In addition to some of the known features near first-order mean-motion resonances (MMR), there is a significant excess of planet pairs with period ratios near 2.2. The statistical significance of this feature is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. We also investigate the distribution of period ratios near first-order MMR and compare different quantities used to measure this distribution. We find that beyond period ratios of ~2.5, the distribution of all period ratios follows a power-law with an exponent -1.26 +/- 0.05. We discuss implications that these results may have on the formation and dynamical evolution of Kepler-like planetary systems---systems of sub-Neptune/super-Earth planets with relatively short orbital periods.
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