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Register a new userLong-Term Prediction of Lane Change Maneuver Through a Multilayer Perceptron
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Added by
Ziran Wang
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Behavior prediction plays an essential role in both autonomous driving systems and Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), since it enhances vehicles awareness of the imminent hazards in the surrounding environment. Many existing lane change prediction models take as input lateral or angle information and make short-term (< 5 seconds) maneuver predictions. In this study, we propose a longer-term (5~10 seconds) prediction model without any lateral or angle information. Three prediction models are introduced, including a logistic regression model, a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model, and a recurrent neural network (RNN) model, and their performances are compared by using the real-world NGSIM dataset. To properly label the trajectory data, this study proposes a new time-window labeling scheme by adding a time gap between positive and negative samples. Two approaches are also proposed to address the unstable prediction issue, where the aggressive approach propagates each positive prediction for certain seconds, while the conservative approach adopts a roll-window average to smooth the prediction. Evaluation results show that the developed prediction model is able to capture 75% of real lane change maneuvers with an average advanced prediction time of 8.05 seconds.
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Lane-change maneuvers are commonly executed by drivers to follow a certain routing plan, overtake a slower vehicle, adapt to a merging lane ahead, etc. However, improper lane change behaviors can be a major cause of traffic flow disruptions and even crashes. While many rule-based methods have been proposed to solve lane change problems for autonomous driving, they tend to exhibit limited performance due to the uncertainty and complexity of the driving environment. Machine learning-based methods offer an alternative approach, as Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has shown promising success in many application domains including robotic manipulation, navigation, and playing video games. However, applying DRL to autonomous driving still faces many practical challenges in terms of slow learning rates, sample inefficiency, and safety concerns. In this study, we propose an automated lane change strategy using proximal policy optimization-based deep reinforcement learning, which shows great advantages in learning efficiency while still maintaining stable performance. The trained agent is able to learn a smooth, safe, and efficient driving policy to make lane-change decisions (i.e. when and how) in a challenging situation such as dense traffic scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed policy is validated by using metrics of task success rate and collision rate. The simulation results demonstrate the lane change maneuvers can be efficiently learned and executed in a safe, smooth, and efficient manner.
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