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Stochastic processes generated by non-stationary distributions are difficult to represent with conventional models such as Gaussian processes. This work presents Recurrent Autoregressive Flows as a method toward general stochastic process modeling with normalizing flows. The proposed method defines a conditional distribution for each variable in a sequential process by conditioning the parameters of a normalizing flow with recurrent neural connections. Complex conditional relationships are learned through the recurrent network parameters. In this work, we present an initial design for a recurrent flow cell and a method to train the model to match observed empirical distributions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this class of models through a series of experiments in which models are trained on three complex stochastic processes. We highlight the shortcomings of our current formulation and suggest some potential solutions.
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In many machine learning problems the output should not depend on the order of the input. Such permutation invariant functions have been studied extensively recently. Here we argue that temporal architectures such as RNNs are highly relevant for such problems, despite the inherent dependence of RNNs on order. We show that RNNs can be regularized towards permutation invariance, and that this can result in compact models, as compared to non-recurrent architectures. We implement this idea via a novel form of stochastic regularization. Existing solutions mostly suggest restricting the learning problem to hypothesis classes which are permutation invariant by design. Our approach of enforcing permutation invariance via regularization gives rise to models which are textit{semi permutation invariant} (e.g. invariant to some permutations and not to others). We show that our method outperforms other permutation invariant approaches on synthetic and real world datasets.
Molecular graph generation is a fundamental problem for drug discovery and has been attracting growing attention. The problem is challenging since it requires not only generating chemically valid molecular structures but also optimizing their chemical properties in the meantime. Inspired by the recent progress in deep generative models, in this paper we propose a flow-based autoregressive model for graph generation called GraphAF. GraphAF combines the advantages of both autoregressive and flow-based approaches and enjoys: (1) high model flexibility for data density estimation; (2) efficient parallel computation for training; (3) an iterative sampling process, which allows leveraging chemical domain knowledge for valency checking. Experimental results show that GraphAF is able to generate 68% chemically valid molecules even without chemical knowledge rules and 100% valid molecules with chemical rules. The training process of GraphAF is two times faster than the existing state-of-the-art approach GCPN. After fine-tuning the model for goal-directed property optimization with reinforcement learning, GraphAF achieves state-of-the-art performance on both chemical property optimization and constrained property optimization.
A generative recurrent neural network is quickly trained in an unsupervised manner to model popular reinforcement learning environments through compressed spatio-temporal representations. The world models extracted features are fed into compact and simple policies trained by evolution, achieving state of the art results in various environments. We also train our agent entirely inside of an environment generated by its own internal world model, and transfer this policy back into the actual environment. Interactive version of paper at https://worldmodels.github.io
We describe an optimal adversarial attack formulation against autoregressive time series forecast using Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). In this threat model, the environment evolves according to a dynamical system; an autoregressive model observes the current environment state and predicts its future values; an attacker has the ability to modify the environment state in order to manipulate future autoregressive forecasts. The attackers goal is to force autoregressive forecasts into tracking a target trajectory while minimizing its attack expenditure. In the white-box setting where the attacker knows the environment and forecast models, we present the optimal attack using LQR for linear models, and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for nonlinear models. In the black-box setting, we combine system identification and MPC. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our attacks.
We introduce a deep, generative autoencoder capable of learning hierarchies of distributed representations from data. Successive deep stochastic hidden layers are equipped with autoregressive connections, which enable the model to be sampled from quickly and exactly via ancestral sampling. We derive an efficient approximate parameter estimation method based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle, which can be seen as maximising a variational lower bound on the log-likelihood, with a feedforward neural network implementing approximate inference. We demonstrate state-of-the-art generative performance on a number of classic data sets: several UCI data sets, MNIST and Atari 2600 games.
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