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Register a new userCOT-GAN: Generating Sequential Data via Causal Optimal Transport
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We introduce COT-GAN, an adversarial algorithm to train implicit generative models optimized for producing sequential data. The loss function of this algorithm is formulated using ideas from Causal Optimal Transport (COT), which combines classic optimal transport methods with an additional temporal causality constraint. Remarkably, we find that this causality condition provides a natural framework to parameterize the cost function that is learned by the discriminator as a robust (worst-case) distance, and an ideal mechanism for learning time dependent data distributions. Following Genevay et al. (2018), we also include an entropic penalization term which allows for the use of the Sinkhorn algorithm when computing the optimal transport cost. Our experiments show effectiveness and stability of COT-GAN when generating both low- and high-dimensional time series data. The success of the algorithm also relies on a new, improved version of the Sinkhorn divergence which demonstrates less bias in learning.
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Going beyond correlations, the understanding and identification of causal relationships in observational time series, an important subfield of Causal Discovery, poses a major challenge. The lack of access to a well-defined ground truth for real-world data creates the need to rely on synthetic data for the evaluation of these methods. Existing benchmarks are limited in their scope, as they either are restricted to a static selection of data sets, or do not allow for a granular assessment of the methods performance when commonly made assumptions are violated. We propose a flexible and simple to use framework for generating time series data, which is aimed at developing, evaluating, and benchmarking time series causal discovery methods. In particular, the framework can be used to fine tune novel methods on vast amounts of data, without overfitting them to a benchmark, but rather so they perform well in real-world use cases. Using our framework, we evaluate prominent time series causal discovery methods and demonstrate a notable degradation in performance when their assumptions are invalidated and their sensitivity to choice of hyperparameters. Finally, we propose future research directions and how our framework can support both researchers and practitioners.
Causal Optimal Transport (COT) results from imposing a temporal causality constraint on classic optimal transport problems, which naturally generates a new concept of distances between distributions on path spaces. The first application of the COT theory for sequential learning was given in Xu et al. (2020), where COT-GAN was introduced as an adversarial algorithm to train implicit generative models optimized for producing sequential data. Relying on Xu et al. (2020), the contribution of the present paper is twofold. First, we develop a conditional version of COT-GAN suitable for sequence prediction. This means that the dataset is now used in order to learn how a sequence will evolve given the observation of its past evolution. Second, we improve on the convergence results by working with modifications of the empirical measures via a specific type of quantization due to Backhoff et al. (2020). The resulting quantized conditional COT-GAN algorithm is illustrated with an application for video prediction.
Missing data is a crucial issue when applying machine learning algorithms to real-world datasets. Starting from the simple assumption that two batches extracted randomly from the same dataset should share the same distribution, we leverage optimal transport distances to quantify that criterion and turn it into a loss function to impute missing data values. We propose practical methods to minimize these losses using end-to-end learning, that can exploit or not parametric assumptions on the underlying distributions of values. We evaluate our methods on datasets from the UCI repository, in MCAR, MAR and MNAR settings. These experiments show that OT-based methods match or out-perform state-of-the-art imputation methods, even for high percentages of missing values.
Optimal transport is a machine learning problem with applications including distribution comparison, feature selection, and generative adversarial networks. In this paper, we propose feature-robust optimal transport (FROT) for high-dimensional data, which solves high-dimensional OT problems using feature selection to avoid the curse of dimensionality. Specifically, we find a transport plan with discriminative features. To this end, we formulate the FROT problem as a min--max optimization problem. We then propose a convex formulation of the FROT problem and solve it using a Frank--Wolfe-based optimization algorithm, whereby the subproblem can be efficiently solved using the Sinkhorn algorithm. Since FROT finds the transport plan from selected features, it is robust to noise features. To show the effectiveness of FROT, we propose using the FROT algorithm for the layer selection problem in deep neural networks for semantic correspondence. By conducting synthetic and benchmark experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed method can find a strong correspondence by determining important layers. We show that the FROT algorithm achieves state-of-the-art performance in real-world semantic correspondence datasets.
Weighting methods are a common tool to de-bias estimates of causal effects. And though there are an increasing number of seemingly disparate methods, many of them can be folded into one unifying regime: causal optimal transport. This new method directly targets distributional balance by minimizing optimal transport distances between treatment and control groups or, more generally, between a source and target population. Our approach is model-free but can also incorporate moments or any other important functions of covariates that the researcher desires to balance. We find that the causal optimal transport outperforms competitor methods when both the propensity score and outcome models are misspecified, indicating it is a robust alternative to common weighting methods. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our method in an external control study examining the effect of misoprostol versus oxytocin for treatment of post-partum hemorrhage.
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