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Register a new userLearning Causal Models Online
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Added by
Khurram Javed
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Predictive models -- learned from observational data not covering the complete data distribution -- can rely on spurious correlations in the data for making predictions. These correlations make the models brittle and hinder generalization. One solution for achieving strong generalization is to incorporate causal structures in the models; such structures constrain learning by ignoring correlations that contradict them. However, learning these structures is a hard problem in itself. Moreover, its not clear how to incorporate the machinery of causality with online continual learning. In this work, we take an indirect approach to discovering causal models. Instead of searching for the true causal model directly, we propose an online algorithm that continually detects and removes spurious features. Our algorithm works on the idea that the correlation of a spurious feature with a target is not constant over-time. As a result, the weight associated with that feature is constantly changing. We show that by continually removing such features, our method converges to solutions that have strong generalization. Moreover, our method combined with random search can also discover non-spurious features from raw sensory data. Finally, our work highlights that the information present in the temporal structure of the problem -- destroyed by shuffling the data -- is essential for detecting spurious features online.
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In the past decade, contextual bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms have been successfully used in various interactive learning systems such as online advertising, recommender systems, and dynamic pricing. However, they have yet to be widely adopted in high-stakes application domains, such as healthcare. One reason may be that existing approaches assume that the underlying mechanisms are static in the sense that they do not change over different environments. In many real world systems, however, the mechanisms are subject to shifts across environments which may invalidate the static environment assumption. In this paper, we tackle the problem of environmental shifts under the framework of offline contextual bandits. We view the environmental shift problem through the lens of causality and propose multi-environment contextual bandits that allow for changes in the underlying mechanisms. We adopt the concept of invariance from the causality literature and introduce the notion of policy invariance. We argue that policy invariance is only relevant if unobserved confounders are present and show that, in that case, an optimal invariant policy is guaranteed to generalize across environments under suitable assumptions. Our results may be a first step towards solving the environmental shift problem. They also establish concrete connections among causality, invariance and contextual bandits.
This paper introduces an algorithm for discovering implicit and delayed causal relations between events observed by a robot at arbitrary times, with the objective of improving data-efficiency and interpretability of model-based reinforcement learning (RL) techniques. The proposed algorithm initially predicts observations with the Markov assumption, and incrementally introduces new hidden variables to explain and reduce the stochasticity of the observations. The hidden variables are memory units that keep track of pertinent past events. Such events are systematically identified by their information gains. The learned transition and reward models are then used for planning. Experiments on simulated and real robotic tasks show that this method significantly improves over current RL techniques.
We propose an adversarial training procedure for learning a causal implicit generative model for a given causal graph. We show that adversarial training can be used to learn a generative model with true observational and interventional distributions if the generator architecture is consistent with the given causal graph. We consider the application of generating faces based on given binary labels where the dependency structure between the labels is preserved with a causal graph. This problem can be seen as learning a causal implicit generative model for the image and labels. We devise a two-stage procedure for this problem. First we train a causal implicit generative model over binary labels using a neural network consistent with a causal graph as the generator. We empirically show that WassersteinGAN can be used to output discrete labels. Later, we propose two new conditional GAN architectures, which we call CausalGAN and CausalBEGAN. We show that the optimal generator of the CausalGAN, given the labels, samples from the image distributions conditioned on these labels. The conditional GAN combined with a trained causal implicit generative model for the labels is then a causal implicit generative model over the labels and the generated image. We show that the proposed architectures can be used to sample from observational and interventional image distributions, even for interventions which do not naturally occur in the dataset.
Learning-to-rank (LTR) has become a key technology in E-commerce applications. Most existing LTR approaches follow a supervised learning paradigm from offline labeled data collected from the online system. However, it has been noticed that previous LTR models can have a good validation performance over offline validation data but have a poor online performance, and vice versa, which implies a possible large inconsistency between the offline and online evaluation. We investigate and confirm in this paper that such inconsistency exists and can have a significant impact on AliExpress Search. Reasons for the inconsistency include the ignorance of item context during the learning, and the offline data set is insufficient for learning the context. Therefore, this paper proposes an evaluator-generator framework for LTR with item context. The framework consists of an evaluator that generalizes to evaluate recommendations involving the context, and a generator that maximizes the evaluator score by reinforcement learning, and a discriminator that ensures the generalization of the evaluator. Extensive experiments in simulation environments and AliExpress Search online system show that, firstly, the classic data-based metrics on the offline dataset can show significant inconsistency with online performance, and can even be misleading. Secondly, the proposed evaluator score is significantly more consistent with the online performance than common ranking metrics. Finally, as the consequence, our method achieves a significant improvement (textgreater$2%$) in terms of Conversion Rate (CR) over the industrial-level fine-tuned model in online A/B tests.
In real-world machine learning applications, there is a cost associated with sampling of different features. Budgeted learning can be used to select which feature-values to acquire from each instance in a dataset, such that the best model is induced under a given constraint. However, this approach is not possible in the domain of online learning since one may not retroactively acquire feature-values from past instances. In online learning, the challenge is to find the optimum set of features to be acquired from each instance upon arrival from a data stream. In this paper we introduce the issue of online budgeted learning and describe a general framework for addressing this challenge. We propose two types of feature value acquisition policies based on the multi-armed bandit problem: random and adaptive. Adaptive policies perform online adjustments according to new information coming from a data stream, while random policies are not sensitive to the information that arrives from the data stream. Our comparative study on five real-world datasets indicates that adaptive policies outperform random policies for most budget limitations and datasets. Furthermore, we found that in some cases adaptive policies achieve near-optimal results.
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