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Register a new userRepurpose Open Data to Discover Therapeutics for COVID-19 using Deep Learning
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There have been more than 850,000 confirmed cases and over 48,000 deaths from the human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), in the United States alone. However, there are currently no proven effective medications against COVID-19. Drug repurposing offers a promising way for the development of prevention and treatment strategies for COVID-19. This study reports an integrative, network-based deep learning methodology to identify repurposable drugs for COVID-19 (termed CoV-KGE). Specifically, we built a comprehensive knowledge graph that includes 15 million edges across 39 types of relationships connecting drugs, diseases, genes, pathways, and expressions, from a large scientific corpus of 24 million PubMed publications. Using Amazon AWS computing resources, we identified 41 repurposable drugs (including indomethacin, toremifene and niclosamide) whose therapeutic association with COVID-19 were validated by transcriptomic and proteomic data in SARS-CoV-2 infected human cells and data from ongoing clinical trials. While this study, by no means recommends specific drugs, it demonstrates a powerful deep learning methodology to prioritize existing drugs for further investigation, which holds the potential of accelerating therapeutic development for COVID-19.
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After emerging in China in late 2019, the novel Severe acute respiratory syndrome-like coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread worldwide and as of early 2021, continues to significantly impact most countries. Only a small number of coronaviruses are known to infect humans, and only two are associated with the severe outcomes associated with SARS-CoV-2: Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus, a closely related species of SARS-CoV-2 that emerged in 2002, and Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus, which emerged in 2012. Both of these previous epidemics were controlled fairly rapidly through public health measures, and no vaccines or robust therapeutic interventions were identified. However, previous insights into the immune response to coronaviruses gained during the outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) have proved beneficial to identifying approaches to the treatment and prophylaxis of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A number of potential therapeutics against SARS-CoV-2 and the resultant COVID-19 illness were rapidly identified, leading to a large number of clinical trials investigating a variety of possible therapeutic approaches being initiated early on in the pandemic. As a result, a small number of therapeutics have already been authorized by regulatory agencies such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the United States, and many other therapeutics remain under investigation. Here, we describe a range of approaches for the treatment of COVID-19, along with their proposed mechanisms of action and the current status of clinical investigation into each candidate. The status of these investigations will continue to evolve, and this review will be updated as progress is made.
COVID-19 pandemic has created an extreme pressure on the global healthcare services. Fast, reliable and early clinical assessment of the severity of the disease can help in allocating and prioritizing resources to reduce mortality. In order to study the important blood biomarkers for predicting disease mortality, a retrospective study was conducted on 375 COVID-19 positive patients admitted to Tongji Hospital (China) from January 10 to February 18, 2020. Demographic and clinical characteristics, and patient outcomes were investigated using machine learning tools to identify key biomarkers to predict the mortality of individual patient. A nomogram was developed for predicting the mortality risk among COVID-19 patients. Lactate dehydrogenase, neutrophils (%), lymphocyte (%), high sensitive C-reactive protein, and age - acquired at hospital admission were identified as key predictors of death by multi-tree XGBoost model. The area under curve (AUC) of the nomogram for the derivation and validation cohort were 0.961 and 0.991, respectively. An integrated score (LNLCA) was calculated with the corresponding death probability. COVID-19 patients were divided into three subgroups: low-, moderate- and high-risk groups using LNLCA cut-off values of 10.4 and 12.65 with the death probability less than 5%, 5% to 50%, and above 50%, respectively. The prognostic model, nomogram and LNLCA score can help in early detection of high mortality risk of COVID-19 patients, which will help doctors to improve the management of patient stratification.
Since the emergence of COVID-19, deep learning models have been developed to identify COVID-19 from chest X-rays. With little to no direct access to hospital data, the AI community relies heavily on public data comprising numerous data sources. Model performance results have been exceptional when training and testing on open-source data, surpassing the reported capabilities of AI in pneumonia-detection prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. In this study impactful models are trained on a widely used open-source data and tested on an external test set and a hospital dataset, for the task of classifying chest X-rays into one of three classes: COVID-19, non-COVID pneumonia and no-pneumonia. Classification performance of the models investigated is evaluated through ROC curves, confusion matrices and standard classification metrics. Explainability modules are implemented to explore the image features most important to classification. Data analysis and model evaluations show that the popular open-source dataset COVIDx is not representative of the real clinical problem and that results from testing on this are inflated. Dependence on open-source data can leave models vulnerable to bias and confounding variables, requiring careful analysis to develop clinically useful/viable AI tools for COVID-19 detection in chest X-rays.
COVID-19 clinical presentation and prognosis are highly variable, ranging from asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multi-organ involvement. We developed a hybrid machine learning/deep learning model to classify patients in two outcome categories, non-ICU and ICU (intensive care admission or death), using 558 patients admitted in a northern Italy hospital in February/May of 2020. A fully 3D patient-level CNN classifier on baseline CT images is used as feature extractor. Features extracted, alongside with laboratory and clinical data, are fed for selection in a Boruta algorithm with SHAP game theoretical values. A classifier is built on the reduced feature space using CatBoost gradient boosting algorithm and reaching a probabilistic AUC of 0.949 on holdout test set. The model aims to provide clinical decision support to medical doctors, with the probability score of belonging to an outcome class and with case-based SHAP interpretation of features importance.
COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting the lives of billions across the globe. Even after taking massive protective measures like nation-wide lockdowns, discontinuation of international flight services, rigorous testing etc., the infection spreading is still growing steadily, causing thousands of deaths and serious socio-economic crisis. Thus, the identification of the major factors of this infection spreading dynamics is becoming crucial to minimize impact and lifetime of COVID-19 and any future pandemic. In this work, a probabilistic cellular automata based method has been employed to model the infection dynamics for a significant number of different countries. This study proposes that for an accurate data-driven modeling of this infection spread, cellular automata provides an excellent platform, with a sequential genetic algorithm for efficiently estimating the parameters of the dynamics. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to understand and interpret COVID-19 data using optimized cellular automata, through genetic algorithm. It has been demonstrated that the proposed methodology can be flexible and robust at the same time, and can be used to model the daily active cases, total number of infected people and total death cases through systematic parameter estimation. Elaborate analyses for COVID-19 statistics of forty countries from different continents have been performed, with markedly divergent time evolution of the infection spreading because of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The substantial predictive power of this model has been established with conclusions on the key players in this pandemic dynamics.
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