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Register a new userMachine learning for the diagnosis of early stage diabetes using temporal glucose profiles
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Machine learning shows remarkable success for recognizing patterns in data. Here we apply the machine learning (ML) for the diagnosis of early stage diabetes, which is known as a challenging task in medicine. Blood glucose levels are tightly regulated by two counter-regulatory hormones, insulin and glucagon, and the failure of the glucose homeostasis leads to the common metabolic disease, diabetes mellitus. It is a chronic disease that has a long latent period the complicates detection of the disease at an early stage. The vast majority of diabetics result from that diminished effectiveness of insulin action. The insulin resistance must modify the temporal profile of blood glucose. Thus we propose to use ML to detect the subtle change in the temporal pattern of glucose concentration. Time series data of blood glucose with sufficient resolution is currently unavailable, so we confirm the proposal using synthetic data of glucose profiles produced by a biophysical model that considers the glucose regulation and hormone action. Multi-layered perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, and recurrent neural networks all identified the degree of insulin resistance with high accuracy above $85%$.
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This article compares ten recently proposed neural networks and proposes two ensemble neural network-based models for blood glucose prediction. All of them are tested under the same dataset, preprocessing workflow, and tools using the OhioT1DM Dataset at three different prediction horizons: 30, 60, and 120 minutes. We compare their performance using the most common metrics in blood glucose prediction and rank the best-performing ones using three methods devised for the statistical comparison of the performance of multiple algorithms: scmamp, model confidence set, and superior predictive ability. Our analysis highlights those models with the highest probability of being the best predictors, estimates the increase in error of the models that perform more poorly with respect to the best ones, and provides a guide for their use in clinical practice.
COVID-19 pandemic has created an extreme pressure on the global healthcare services. Fast, reliable and early clinical assessment of the severity of the disease can help in allocating and prioritizing resources to reduce mortality. In order to study the important blood biomarkers for predicting disease mortality, a retrospective study was conducted on 375 COVID-19 positive patients admitted to Tongji Hospital (China) from January 10 to February 18, 2020. Demographic and clinical characteristics, and patient outcomes were investigated using machine learning tools to identify key biomarkers to predict the mortality of individual patient. A nomogram was developed for predicting the mortality risk among COVID-19 patients. Lactate dehydrogenase, neutrophils (%), lymphocyte (%), high sensitive C-reactive protein, and age - acquired at hospital admission were identified as key predictors of death by multi-tree XGBoost model. The area under curve (AUC) of the nomogram for the derivation and validation cohort were 0.961 and 0.991, respectively. An integrated score (LNLCA) was calculated with the corresponding death probability. COVID-19 patients were divided into three subgroups: low-, moderate- and high-risk groups using LNLCA cut-off values of 10.4 and 12.65 with the death probability less than 5%, 5% to 50%, and above 50%, respectively. The prognostic model, nomogram and LNLCA score can help in early detection of high mortality risk of COVID-19 patients, which will help doctors to improve the management of patient stratification.
Machine-learning models that learn from data to predict how protein sequence encodes function are emerging as a useful protein engineering tool. However, when using these models to suggest new protein designs, one must deal with the vast combinatorial complexity of protein sequences. Here, we review how to use a sequence-to-function machine-learning surrogate model to select sequences for experimental measurement. First, we discuss how to select sequences through a single round of machine-learning optimization. Then, we discuss sequential optimization, where the goal is to discover optimized sequences and improve the model across multiple rounds of training, optimization, and experimental measurement.
DNA-encoded library (DEL) screening and quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling are two techniques used in drug discovery to find small molecules that bind a protein target. Applying QSAR modeling to DEL data can facilitate the selection of compounds for off-DNA synthesis and evaluation. Such a combined approach has been shown recently by training binary classifiers to learn DEL enrichments of aggregated disynthons to accommodate the sparse and noisy nature of DEL data. However, a binary classifier cannot distinguish between different levels of enrichment, and information is potentially lost during disynthon aggregation. Here, we demonstrate a regression approach to learning DEL enrichments of individual molecules using a custom negative log-likelihood loss function that effectively denoises DEL data and introduces opportunities for visualization of learned structure-activity relationships (SAR). Our approach explicitly models the Poisson statistics of the sequencing process used in the DEL experimental workflow under a frequentist view. We illustrate this approach on a dataset of 108k compounds screened against CAIX, and a dataset of 5.7M compounds screened against sEH and SIRT2. Due to the treatment of uncertainty in the data through the negative log-likelihood loss function, the models can ignore low-confidence outliers. While our approach does not demonstrate a benefit for extrapolation to novel structures, we expect our denoising and visualization pipeline to be useful in identifying SAR trends and enriched pharmacophores in DEL data. Further, this approach to uncertainty-aware regression is applicable to other sparse or noisy datasets where the nature of stochasticity is known or can be modeled; in particular, the Poisson enrichment ratio metric we use can apply to other settings that compare sequencing count data between two experimental conditions.
Biological screens are plagued by false positive hits resulting from aggregation. Thus, methods to triage small colloidally aggregating molecules (SCAMs) are in high demand. Herein, we disclose a bespoke machine-learning tool to confidently and intelligibly flag such entities. Our data demonstrate an unprecedented utility of machine learning for predicting SCAMs, achieving 80% of correct predictions in a challenging out-of-sample validation. The tool outperformed a panel of expert chemists, who correctly predicted 61 +/- 7% of the same test molecules in a Turing-like test. Further, the computational routine provided insight into molecular features governing aggregation that had remained hidden to expert intuition. Leveraging our tool, we quantify that up to 15-20% of ligands in publicly available chemogenomic databases have the high potential to aggregate at typical screening concentrations, imposing caution in systems biology and drug design programs. Our approach provides a means to augment human intuition, mitigate attrition and a pathway to accelerate future molecular medicine.
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