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Register a new userBoom, Bust, and Bitcoin: Bitcoin-Bubbles As Innovation Accelerators
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Added by
Tobias Huber
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Bitcoin represents one of the most interesting technological breakthroughs and socio-economic experiments of the last decades. In this paper, we examine the role of speculative bubbles in the process of Bitcoins technological adoption by analyzing its social dynamics. We trace Bitcoins genesis and dissect the nature of its techno-economic innovation. In particular, we present an analysis of the techno-economic feedback loops that drive Bitcoins price and network effects. Based on our analysis of Bitcoin, we test and further refine the Social Bubble Hypothesis, which holds that bubbles constitute an essential component in the process of technological innovation. We argue that a hierarchy of repeating and exponentially increasing series of bubbles and hype cycles, which has occurred over the past decade since its inception, has bootstrapped Bitcoin into existence.
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The functioning of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin relies on the open availability of the entire history of its transactions. This makes it a particularly interesting socio-economic system to analyse from the point of view of network science. Here we analyse the evolution of the network of Bitcoin transactions between users. We achieve this by using the complete transaction history from December 5th 2011 to December 23rd 2013. This period includes three bubbles experienced by the Bitcoin price. In particular, we focus on the global and local structural properties of the user network and their variation in relation to the different period of price surge and decline. By analysing the temporal variation of the heterogeneity of the connectivity patterns we gain insights on the different mechanisms that take place during bubbles, and find that hubs (i.e., the most connected nodes) had a fundamental role in triggering the burst of the second bubble. Finally, we examine the local topological structures of interactions between users, we discover that the relative frequency of triadic interactions experiences a strong change before, during and after a bubble, and suggest that the importance of the hubs grows during the bubble. These results provide further evidence that the behaviour of the hubs during bubbles significantly increases the systemic risk of the Bitcoin network, and discuss the implications on public policy interventions.
We focus on the problem of botnet orchestration and discuss how attackers can leverage decentralised technologies to dynamically control botnets with the goal of having botnets that are resilient against hostile takeovers. We cover critical elements of the Bitcoin blockchain and its usage for `floating command and control servers. We further discuss how blockchain-based botnets can be built and include a detailed discussion of our implementation. We also showcase how specific Bitcoin APIs can be used in order to write extraneous data to the blockchain. Finally, while in this paper, we use Bitcoin to build our resilient botnet proof of concept, the threat is not limited to Bitcoin blockchain and can be generalized.
We survey recent results on the mathematical stability of Bitcoin protocol. Profitability and probability of a double spend are estimated in closed form with classical special functions. The stability of Bitcoin mining rules is analyzed and several theorems are proved using martingale and combinatorics techniques. In particular, the empirical observation of the stability of the Bitcoin protocol is proved. This survey article on the mathematics of Bitcoin is published by the Newsletter of the European Mathematical Society, vol.115, 2020, p.31-37. Continuation of arXiv:1601.05254 (EMS Newsletter, 100, 2016 p.32).
Investors tend to sell their winning investments and hold onto their losers. This phenomenon, known as the emph{disposition effect} in the field of behavioural finance, is well-known and its prevalence has been shown in a number of existing markets. But what about new atypical markets like cryptocurrencies? Do investors act as irrationally as in traditional markets? One might suspect this and hypothesise that cryptocurrency sells occur more frequently in positive market conditions and less frequently in negative market conditions. However, there is still no empirical evidence to support this. In this paper, we expand on existing research and empirically investigate the prevalence of the disposition effect in Bitcoin by testing this hypothesis. Our results show that investors are indeed subject to the disposition effect, tending to sell their winning positions too soon and holding on to their losing position for too long. This effect is very prominently evident from the boom and bust year 2017 onwards, confirmed via most of the applied technical indicators. In this study, we show that Bitcoin traders act just as irrationally as traders in other, more established markets.
Bitcoin is the first fully decentralized permissionless blockchain protocol and achieves a high level of security: the ledger it maintains has guaranteed liveness and consistency properties as long as the adversary has less compute power than the honest nodes. However, its throughput is only 7 transactions per second and the confirmation latency can be up to hours. Prism is a new blockchain protocol which is designed to achieve a natural scaling of Bitcoins performance while maintaining its full security guarantees. We present an implementation of Prism which achieves a throughput of 70,000 transactions per second and confirmation latencies of tens of seconds.
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