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Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) are elegant reinterpretations of deep networks where continuous time can replace the discrete notion of depth, ODE solvers perform forward propagation, and the adjoint method enables efficient, constant memory backpropagation. Neural ODEs are universal approximators only when they are non-autonomous, that is, the dynamics depends explicitly on time. We propose a novel family of Neural ODEs with time-varying weights, where time-dependence is non-parametric, and the smoothness of weight trajectories can be explicitly controlled to allow a tradeoff between expressiveness and efficiency. Using this enhanced expressiveness, we outperform previous Neural ODE variants in both speed and representational capacity, ultimately outperforming standard ResNet and CNN models on select image classification and video prediction tasks.
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Modeling a systems temporal behaviour in reaction to external stimuli is a fundamental problem in many areas. Pure Machine Learning (ML) approaches often fail in the small sample regime and cannot provide actionable insights beyond predictions. A promising modification has been to incorporate expert domain knowledge into ML models. The application we consider is predicting the progression of disease under medications, where a plethora of domain knowledge is available from pharmacology. Pharmacological models describe the dynamics of carefully-chosen medically meaningful variables in terms of systems of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs). However, these models only describe a limited collection of variables, and these variables are often not observable in clinical environments. To close this gap, we propose the latent hybridisation model (LHM) that integrates a system of expert-designed ODEs with machine-learned Neural ODEs to fully describe the dynamics of the system and to link the expert and latent variables to observable quantities. We evaluated LHM on synthetic data as well as real-world intensive care data of COVID-19 patients. LHM consistently outperforms previous works, especially when few training samples are available such as at the beginning of the pandemic.
Training Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) is often computationally expensive. Indeed, computing the forward pass of such models involves solving an ODE which can become arbitrarily complex during training. Recent works have shown that regularizing the dynamics of the ODE can partially alleviate this. In this paper we propose a new regularization technique: randomly sampling the end time of the ODE during training. The proposed regularization is simple to implement, has negligible overhead and is effective across a wide variety of tasks. Further, the technique is orthogonal to several other methods proposed to regularize the dynamics of ODEs and as such can be used in conjunction with them. We show through experiments on normalizing flows, time series models and image recognition that the proposed regularization can significantly decrease training time and even improve performance over baseline models.
Black Sigatoka disease severely decreases global banana production, and climate change aggravates the problem by altering fungal species distributions. Due to the heavy financial burden of managing this infectious disease, farmers in developing countries face significant banana crop losses. Though scientists have produced mathematical models of infectious diseases, adapting these models to incorporate climate effects is difficult. We present MR. NODE (Multiple predictoR Neural ODE), a neural network that models the dynamics of black Sigatoka infection learnt directly from data via Neural Ordinary Differential Equations. Our method encodes external predictor factors into the latent space in addition to the variable that we infer, and it can also predict the infection risk at an arbitrary point in time. Empirically, we demonstrate on historical climate data that our method has superior generalization performance on time points up to one month in the future and unseen irregularities. We believe that our method can be a useful tool to control the spread of black Sigatoka.
Continuous deep learning architectures have recently re-emerged as Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs). This infinite-depth approach theoretically bridges the gap between deep learning and dynamical systems, offering a novel perspective. However, deciphering the inner working of these models is still an open challenge, as most applications apply them as generic black-box modules. In this work we open the box, further developing the continuous-depth formulation with the aim of clarifying the influence of several design choices on the underlying dynamics.
Spurred by tremendous success in pattern matching and prediction tasks, researchers increasingly resort to machine learning to aid original scientific discovery. Given large amounts of observational data about a system, can we uncover the rules that govern its evolution? Solving this task holds the great promise of fully understanding the causal interactions and being able to make reliable predictions about the systems behavior under interventions. We take a step towards answering this question for time-series data generated from systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). While the governing ODEs might not be identifiable from data alone, we show that combining simple regularization schemes with flexible neural ODEs can robustly recover the dynamics and causal structures from time-series data. Our results on a variety of (non)-linear first and second order systems as well as real data validate our method. We conclude by showing that we can also make accurate predictions under interventions on variables or the system itself.
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