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Register a new userSpruce budworm and oil price: a biophysical analogy
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Authors
Luciano Celi
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The behavior of complex systems is one of the most intriguing phenomena investigated by recent science; natural and artificial systems offer a wide opportunity for this kind of analysis. The energy conversion is both a process based on important physical laws and one of the most important economic sectors; the interaction between these two aspects of energy production suggests the possibility to apply some of the approaches of the dynamic systems analysis. In particular, a phase plot, which is one of the methods to detect a correlation between quantities in a complex system, provides a good way to establish qualitative analogies between the ecological systems and the economic ones and may shed light on the processes governing the evolution of the system. The aim of this paper is to highlight the analogies between some peculiar characteristics of the oil production vs. price and show in which way such characteristics are similar to some behavioral mechanisms found in Nature.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) creates fear and uncertainty, hitting the global economy and amplifying the financial markets volatility. The oil price reaction to COVID-19 was gradually accommodated until March 09, 2020, when, 49 days after the release of the first coronavirus monitoring report by the World Health Organization (WHO), Saudi Arabia floods the market with oil. As a result, international prices drop with more than 20% in one single day. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 numbers on crude oil prices, while controlling for the impact of financial volatility and the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty. Our ARDL estimation shows that the COVID-19 daily reported cases of new infections have a marginal negative impact on the crude oil prices in the long run. Nevertheless, by amplifying the financial markets volatility, COVID-19 also has an indirect effect on the recent dynamics of crude oil prices.
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