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Register a new userOptimal prediction of decisions and model selection in social dilemmas using block models
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Advancing our understanding of human behavior hinges on the ability of theories to unveil the mechanisms underlying such behaviors. Measuring the ability of theories and models to predict unobserved behaviors provides a principled method to evaluate their merit and, thus, to help establish which mechanisms are most plausible. Here, we propose models and develop rigorous inference approaches to predict strategic decisions in dyadic social dilemmas. In particular, we use bipartite stochastic block models that incorporate information about the dilemmas faced by individuals. We show, combining these models with empirical data on strategic decisions in dyadic social dilemmas, that individual strategic decisions are to a large extent predictable, despite not being rational. The analysis of these models also allows us to conclude that: (i) individuals do not perceive games according their game-theoretical structure; (ii) individuals make decisions using combinations of multiple simple strategies, which our approach reveals naturally.
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Many real-world complex systems are well represented as multilayer networks; predicting interactions in those systems is one of the most pressing problems in predictive network science. To address this challenge, we introduce two stochastic block models for multilayer and temporal networks; one of them uses nodes as its fundamental unit, whereas the other focuses on links. We also develop scalable algorithms for inferring the parameters of these models. Because our models describe all layers simultaneously, our approach takes full advantage of the information contained in the whole network when making predictions about any particular layer. We illustrate the potential of our approach by analyzing two empirical datasets---a temporal network of email communications, and a network of drug interactions for treating different cancer types. We find that modeling all layers simultaneously does result, in general, in more accurate link prediction. However, the most predictive model depends on the dataset under consideration; whereas the node-based model is more appropriate for predicting drug interactions, the link-based model is more appropriate for predicting email communication.
The bidirectional selection between two classes widely emerges in various social lives, such as commercial trading and mate choosing. Until now, the discussions on bidirectional selection in structured human society are quite limited. We demonstrated theoretically that the rate of successfully matching is affected greatly by individuals neighborhoods in social networks, regardless of the type of networks. Furthermore, it is found that the high average degree of networks contributes to increasing rates of successful matches. The matching performance in different types of networks has been quantitatively investigated, revealing that the small-world networks reinforces the matching rate more than scale-free networks at given average degree. In addition, our analysis is consistent with the modeling result, which provides the theoretical understanding of underlying mechanisms of matching in complex networks.
Many real world, complex phenomena have underlying structures of evolving networks where nodes and links are added and removed over time. A central scientific challenge is the description and explanation of network dynamics, with a key test being the prediction of short and long term changes. For the problem of short-term link prediction, existing methods attempt to determine neighborhood metrics that correlate with the appearance of a link in the next observation period. Recent work has suggested that the incorporation of topological features and node attributes can improve link prediction. We provide an approach to predicting future links by applying the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) to optimize weights which are used in a linear combination of sixteen neighborhood and node similarity indices. We examine a large dynamic social network with over $10^6$ nodes (Twitter reciprocal reply networks), both as a test of our general method and as a problem of scientific interest in itself. Our method exhibits fast convergence and high levels of precision for the top twenty predicted links. Based on our findings, we suggest possible factors which may be driving the evolution of Twitter reciprocal reply networks.
We provide a novel family of generative block-models for random graphs that naturally incorporates degree distributions: the block-constrained configuration model. Block-constrained configuration models build on the generalised hypergeometric ensemble of random graphs and extend the well-known configuration model by enforcing block-constraints on the edge generation process. The resulting models are analytically tractable and practical to fit even to large networks. These models provide a new, flexible tool for the study of community structure and for network science in general, where modelling networks with heterogeneous degree distributions is of central importance.
Online social network (OSN) applications provide different experiences; for example, posting a short text on Twitter and sharing photographs on Instagram. Multiple OSNs constitute a multiplex network. For privacy protection and usage purposes, accounts belonging to the same user in different OSNs may have different usernames, photographs, and introductions. Interlayer link prediction in multiplex network aims at identifying whether the accounts in different OSNs belong to the same person, which can aid in tasks including cybercriminal behavior modeling and customer interest analysis. Many real-world OSNs exhibit a scale-free degree distribution; thus, neighbors with different degrees may exert different influences on the node matching degrees across different OSNs. We developed an iterative degree penalty (IDP) algorithm for interlayer link prediction in the multiplex network. First, we proposed a degree penalty principle that assigns a greater weight to a common matched neighbor with fewer connections. Second, we applied node adjacency matrix multiplication for efficiently obtaining the matching degree of all unmatched node pairs. Thereafter, we used the approved maximum value method to obtain the interlayer link prediction results from the matching degree matrix. Finally, the prediction results were inserted into the priori interlayer node pair set and the above processes were performed iteratively until all unmatched nodes in one layer were matched or all matching degrees of the unmatched node pairs were equal to 0. Experiments demonstrated that our advanced IDP algorithm significantly outperforms current network structure-based methods when the multiplex network average degree and node overlapping rate are low.
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