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Register a new userParameterizing uncertainty by deep invertible networks, an application to reservoir characterization
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Uncertainty quantification for full-waveform inversion provides a probabilistic characterization of the ill-conditioning of the problem, comprising the sensitivity of the solution with respect to the starting model and data noise. This analysis allows to assess the confidence in the candidate solution and how it is reflected in the tasks that are typically performed after imaging (e.g., stratigraphic segmentation following reservoir characterization). Classically, uncertainty comes in the form of a probability distribution formulated from Bayesian principles, from which we seek to obtain samples. A popular solution involves Monte Carlo sampling. Here, we propose instead an approach characterized by training a deep network that pushes forward Gaussian random inputs into the model space (representing, for example, density or velocity) as if they were sampled from the actual posterior distribution. Such network is designed to solve a variational optimization problem based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the posterior and the network output distributions. This work is fundamentally rooted in recent developments for invertible networks. Special invertible architectures, besides being computational advantageous with respect to traditional networks, do also enable analytic computation of the output density function. Therefore, after training, these networks can be readily used as a new prior for a related inversion problem. This stands in stark contrast with Monte-Carlo methods, which only produce samples. We validate these ideas with an application to angle-versus-ray parameter analysis for reservoir characterization.
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Many neural networks use the tanh activation function, however when given a probability distribution as input, the problem of computing the output distribution in neural networks with tanh activation has not yet been addressed. One important example is the initialization of the echo state network in reservoir computing, where random initialization of the reservoir requires time to wash out the initial conditions, thereby wasting precious data and computational resources. Motivated by this problem, we propose a novel solution utilizing a moment based approach to propagate uncertainty through an Echo State Network to reduce the washout time. In this work, we contribute two new methods to propagate uncertainty through the tanh activation function and propose the Probabilistic Echo State Network (PESN), a method that is shown to have better average performance than deterministic Echo State Networks given the random initialization of reservoir states. Additionally we test single and multi-step uncertainty propagation of our method on two regression tasks and show that we are able to recover similar means and variances as computed by Monte-Carlo simulations.
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