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Register a new userSpherical Bayesian mass-mapping with uncertainties: full sky observations on the celestial sphere
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To date weak gravitational lensing surveys have typically been restricted to small fields of view, such that the $textit{flat-sky approximation}$ has been sufficiently satisfied. However, with Stage IV surveys ($textit{e.g. LSST}$ and $textit{Euclid}$) imminent, extending mass-mapping techniques to the sphere is a fundamental necessity. As such, we extend the sparse hierarchical Bayesian mass-mapping formalism presented in previous work to the spherical sky. For the first time, this allows us to construct $textit{maximum a posteriori}$ spherical weak lensing dark-matter mass-maps, with principled Bayesian uncertainties, without imposing or assuming Gaussianty. We solve the spherical mass-mapping inverse problem in the analysis setting adopting a sparsity promoting Laplace-type wavelet prior, though this theoretical framework supports all log-concave posteriors. Our spherical mass-mapping formalism facilitates principled statistical interpretation of reconstructions. We apply our framework to convergence reconstruction on high resolution N-body simulations with pseudo-Euclid masking, polluted with a variety of realistic noise levels, and show a significant increase in reconstruction fidelity compared to standard approaches. Furthermore we perform the largest joint reconstruction to date of the majority of publicly available shear observational datasets (combining DESY1, KiDS450 and CFHTLens) and find that our formalism recovers a convergence map with significantly enhanced small-scale detail. Within our Bayesian framework we validate, in a statistically rigorous manner, the communitys intuition regarding the need to smooth spherical Kaiser-Squires estimates to provide physically meaningful convergence maps. Such approaches cannot reveal the small-scale physical structures that we recover within our framework.
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Convergence maps of the integrated matter distribution are a key science result from weak gravitational lensing surveys. To date, recovering convergence maps has been performed using a planar approximation of the celestial sphere. However, with the increasing area of sky covered by dark energy experiments, such as Euclid, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), and the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST), this assumption will no longer be valid. We recover convergence fields on the celestial sphere using an extension of the Kaiser-Squires estimator to the spherical setting. Through simulations we study the error introduced by planar approximations. Moreover, we examine how best to recover convergence maps in the planar setting, considering a variety of different projections and defining the local rotations that are required when projecting spin fields such as cosmic shear. For the sky coverages typical of future surveys, errors introduced by projection effects can be of order tens of percent, exceeding 50% in some cases. The stereographic projection, which is conformal and so preserves local angles, is the most effective planar projection. In any case, these errors can be avoided entirely by recovering convergence fields directly on the celestial sphere. We apply the spherical Kaiser-Squires mass-mapping method presented to the public Dark Energy Survey (DES) science verification data to recover convergence maps directly on the celestial sphere.
Until recently mass-mapping techniques for weak gravitational lensing convergence reconstruction have lacked a principled statistical framework upon which to quantify reconstruction uncertainties, without making strong assumptions of Gaussianity. In previous work we presented a sparse hierarchical Bayesian formalism for convergence reconstruction that addresses this shortcoming. Here, we draw on the concept of local credible intervals (cf. Bayesian error bars) as an extension of the uncertainty quantification techniques previously detailed. These uncertainty quantification techniques are benchmarked against those recovered via Px-MALA - a state of the art proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We find that typically our recovered uncertainties are everywhere conservative, of similar magnitude and highly correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient $geq 0.85$) with those recovered via Px-MALA. Moreover, we demonstrate an increase in computational efficiency of $mathcal{O}(10^6)$ when using our sparse Bayesian approach over MCMC techniques. This computational saving is critical for the application of Bayesian uncertainty quantification to large-scale stage IV surveys such as LSST and Euclid.
A crucial aspect of mass-mapping, via weak lensing, is quantification of the uncertainty introduced during the reconstruction process. Properly accounting for these errors has been largely ignored to date. We present a new method to reconstruct maximum a posteriori (MAP) convergence maps by formulating an unconstrained Bayesian inference problem with Laplace-type l1-norm sparsity-promoting priors, which we solve via convex optimization. Approaching mass-mapping in this manner allows us to exploit recent developments in probability concentration theory to infer theoretically conservative uncertainties for our MAP reconstructions, without relying on assumptions of Gaussianity. For the first time these methods allow us to perform hypothesis testing of structure, from which it is possible to distinguish between physical objects and artifacts of the reconstruction. Here we present this new formalism, demonstrate the method on simulations, before applying the developed formalism to two observational datasets of the Abel-520 cluster. Initial reconstructions of the Abel-520 catalogs reported the detection of an anomalous dark core -- an over dense region with no optical counterpart -- which was taken to be evidence for self-interacting dark-matter. In our Bayesian framework it is found that neither Abel-520 dataset can conclusively determine the physicality of such dark cores at 99% confidence. However, in both cases the recovered MAP estimators are consistent with both sets of data.
Weak lensing convergence maps - upon which higher order statistics can be calculated - can be recovered from observations of the shear field by solving the lensing inverse problem. For typical surveys this inverse problem is ill-posed (often seriously) leading to substantial uncertainty on the recovered convergence maps. In this paper we propose novel methods for quantifying the Bayesian uncertainty in the location of recovered features and the uncertainty in the cumulative peak statistic - the peak count as a function of signal to noise ratio (SNR). We adopt the sparse hierarchical Bayesian mass-mapping framework developed in previous work, which provides robust reconstructions and principled statistical interpretation of reconstructed convergence maps without the need to assume or impose Gaussianity. We demonstrate our uncertainty quantification techniques on both Bolshoi N-body (cluster scale) and Buzzard V-1.6 (large scale structure) N-body simulations. For the first time, this methodology allows one to recover approximate Bayesian upper and lower limits on the cumulative peak statistic at well defined confidence levels.
The millihertz gravitational-wave frequency band is expected to contain a rich symphony of signals with sources ranging from galactic white dwarf binaries to extreme mass ratio inspirals. Many of these gravitational-wave signals will not be individually resolvable. Instead, they will incoherently add to produce stochastic gravitational-wave confusion noise whose frequency content will be governed by the dynamics of the sources. The angular structure of the power of the confusion noise will be modulated by the distribution of the sources across the sky. Measurement of this structure can yield important information about the distribution of sources on galactic and extra-galactic scales, their astrophysics and their evolution over cosmic timescales. Moreover, since the confusion noise is part of the noise budget of LISA, mapping it will also be essential for studying resolvable signals. In this paper, we present a Bayesian algorithm to probe the angular distribution of the stochastic gravitational-wave confusion noise with LISA using a spherical harmonic basis. We develop a technique based on Clebsch-Gordan coefficients to mathematically constrain the spherical harmonics to yield a non-negative distribution, making them optimal for expanding the gravitational-wave power and amenable to Bayesian inference. We demonstrate these techniques using a series of simulations and analyses, including recovery of simulated distributed and localized sources of gravitational-wave power. We also apply this method to map the gravitational-wave foreground from galactic white-dwarfs using a simplified model of the galactic white dwarf distribution.
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