Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userUsing Reports of Own and Others Symptoms and Diagnosis on Social Media to Predict COVID-19 Case Counts: Observational Infoveillance Study in Mainland China
357
0
0.0
(
0
)
Authors
Cuihua Shen
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
Can public social media data be harnessed to predict COVID-19 case counts? We analyzed approximately 15 million COVID-19 related posts on Weibo, a popular Twitter-like social media platform in China, from November 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. We developed a machine learning classifier to identify sick posts, which are reports of ones own and other peoples symptoms and diagnosis related to COVID-19. We then modeled the predictive power of sick posts and other COVID-19 posts on daily case counts. We found that reports of symptoms and diagnosis of COVID-19 significantly predicted daily case counts, up to 14 days ahead of official statistics. But other COVID-19 posts did not have similar predictive power. For a subset of geotagged posts (3.10% of all retrieved posts), we found that the predictive pattern held true for both Hubei province and the rest of mainland China, regardless of unequal distribution of healthcare resources and outbreak timeline. Researchers and disease control agencies should pay close attention to the social media infosphere regarding COVID-19. On top of monitoring overall search and posting activities, it is crucial to sift through the contents and efficiently identify true signals from noise.
rate research
Read More
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures against the epidemic COVID-19. The actual estimation of the number of infected persons with limited data is an indeterminate problem faced by data scientists. There are a large number of techniques in the existing literature, including reproduction number, the case fatality rate, etc., for predicting the duration of an epidemic and infectious population. This paper presents a case study of different techniques for analysing, modeling, and representation of data associated with an epidemic such as COVID-19. We further propose an algorithm for estimating infection transmission states in a particular area. This work also presents an algorithm for estimating end-time of an epidemic from Susceptible Infectious and Recovered model. Finally, this paper presents empirical and data analysis to study the impact of transmission probability, rate of contact, infectious, and susceptible on the epidemic spread.
To contain the pandemic of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Mainland China, the authorities have put in place a series of measures, including quarantines, social distancing, and travel restrictions. While these strategies have effectively dealt with the critical situations of outbreaks, the combination of the pandemic and mobility controls has slowed Chinas economic growth, resulting in the first quarterly decline of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since GDP began to be calculated, in 1992. To characterize the potential shrinkage of the domestic economy, from the perspective of mobility, we propose two new economic indicators: the New Venues Created (NVC) and the Volumes of Visits to Venue (V^3), as the complementary measures to domestic investments and consumption activities, using the data of Baidu Maps. The historical records of these two indicators demonstrated strong correlations with the past figures of Chinese GDP, while the status quo has dramatically changed this year, due to the pandemic. We hereby presented a quantitative analysis to project the impact of the pandemic on economies, using the recent trends of NVC and V^3. We found that the most affected sectors would be travel-dependent businesses, such as hotels, educational institutes, and public transportation, while the sectors that are mandatory to human life, such as workplaces, residential areas, restaurants, and shopping sites, have been recovering rapidly. Analysis at the provincial level showed that the self-sufficient and self-sustainable economic regions, with internal supplies, production, and consumption, have recovered faster than those regions relying on global supply chains.
COVID-19 pandemic has generated what public health officials called an infodemic of misinformation. As social distancing and stay-at-home orders came into effect, many turned to social media for socializing. This increase in social media usage has made it a prime vehicle for the spreading of misinformation. This paper presents a mechanism to detect COVID-19 health-related misinformation in social media following an interdisciplinary approach. Leveraging social psychology as a foundation and existing misinformation frameworks, we defined misinformation themes and associated keywords incorporated into the misinformation detection mechanism using applied machine learning techniques. Next, using the Twitter dataset, we explored the performance of the proposed methodology using multiple state-of-the-art machine learning classifiers. Our method shows promising results with at most 78% accuracy in classifying health-related misinformation versus true information using uni-gram-based NLP feature generations from tweets and the Decision Tree classifier. We also provide suggestions on alternatives for countering misinformation and ethical consideration for the study.
Since March 2020, companies nationwide have started work from home (WFH) due to the rapid increase of confirmed COVID-19 cases in an attempt to help prevent the coronavirus from spreading and rescue the economy from the pandemic. Many organizations have conducted surveys to understand peoples opinions towards WFH. However, the findings are limited due to small sample size and the dynamic topics over time. This study aims to understand the U.S. public opinions on working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conduct a large-scale social media study using Twitter data to portrait different groups who have positive/negative opinions about WFH. We perform an ordinary least squares regression to investigate the relationship between the sentiment about WFH and user characteristics including gender, age, ethnicity, median household income, and population density. To better understand public opinion, we use latent Dirichlet allocation to extract topics and discover how tweet contents relate to peoples attitudes. These findings provide evidence that sentiment about WFH varies across user characteristics. Furthermore, the content analysis sheds light on the nuanced differences in sentiment and reveals disparities relate to WFH.
The exposure and consumption of information during epidemic outbreaks may alter risk perception, trigger behavioural changes, and ultimately affect the evolution of the disease. It is thus of the uttermost importance to map information dissemination by mainstream media outlets and public response. However, our understanding of this exposure-response dynamic during COVID-19 pandemic is still limited. In this paper, we provide a characterization of media coverage and online collective attention to COVID-19 pandemic in four countries: Italy, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada. For this purpose, we collect an heterogeneous dataset including 227,768 online news articles and 13,448 Youtube videos published by mainstream media, 107,898 users posts and 3,829,309 comments on the social media platform Reddit, and 278,456,892 views to COVID-19 related Wikipedia pages. Our results show that public attention, quantified as users activity on Reddit and active searches on Wikipedia pages, is mainly driven by media coverage and declines rapidly, while news exposure and COVID-19 incidence remain high. Furthermore, by using an unsupervised, dynamical topic modeling approach, we show that while the attention dedicated to different topics by media and online users are in good accordance, interesting deviations emerge in their temporal patterns. Overall, our findings offer an additional key to interpret public perception/response to the current global health emergency and raise questions about the effects of attention saturation on collective awareness, risk perception and thus on tendencies towards behavioural changes.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
