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Register a new userForecast Network-Wide Traffic States for Multiple Steps Ahead: A Deep Learning Approach Considering Dynamic Non-Local Spatial Correlation and Non-Stationary Temporal Dependency
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Obtaining accurate information about future traffic flows of all links in a traffic network is of great importance for traffic management and control applications. This research studies two particular problems in traffic forecasting: (1) capture the dynamic and non-local spatial correlation between traffic links and (2) model the dynamics of temporal dependency for accurate multiple steps ahead predictions. To address these issues, we propose a deep learning framework named Spatial-Temporal Sequence to Sequence model (STSeq2Seq). This model builds on sequence to sequence (seq2seq) architecture to capture temporal feature and relies on graph convolution for aggregating spatial information. Moreover, STSeq2Seq defines and constructs pattern-aware adjacency matrices (PAMs) based on pair-wise similarity of the recent traffic patterns on traffic links and integrate it into graph convolution operation. It also deploys a novel seq2sesq architecture which couples a convolutional encoder and a recurrent decoder with attention mechanism for dynamic modeling of long-range dependence between different time steps. We conduct extensive experiments using two publicly-available large-scale traffic datasets and compare STSeq2Seq with other baseline models. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance in terms of various error measures. The ablation study verifies the effectiveness of PAMs in capturing dynamic non-local spatial correlation and the superiority of proposed seq2seq architecture in modeling non-stationary temporal dependency for multiple steps ahead prediction. Furthermore, qualitative analysis is conducted on PAMs as well as the attention weights for model interpretation.
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As a crucial component in intelligent transportation systems, traffic flow prediction has recently attracted widespread research interest in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) with the increasing availability of massive traffic mobility data. Its key challenge lies in how to integrate diverse factors (such as temporal rules and spatial dependencies) to infer the evolution trend of traffic flow. To address this problem, we propose a unified neural network called Attentive Traffic Flow Machine (ATFM), which can effectively learn the spatial-temporal feature representations of traffic flow with an attention mechanism. In particular, our ATFM is composed of two progressive Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM cite{xingjian2015convolutional}) units connected with a convolutional layer. Specifically, the first ConvLSTM unit takes normal traffic flow features as input and generates a hidden state at each time-step, which is further fed into the connected convolutional layer for spatial attention map inference. The second ConvLSTM unit aims at learning the dynamic spatial-temporal representations from the attentionally weighted traffic flow features. Further, we develop two deep learning frameworks based on ATFM to predict citywide short-term/long-term traffic flow by adaptively incorporating the sequential and periodic data as well as other external influences. Extensive experiments on two standard benchmarks well demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method for traffic flow prediction. Moreover, to verify the generalization of our method, we also apply the customized framework to forecast the passenger pickup/dropoff demands in traffic prediction and show its superior performance. Our code and data are available at {color{blue}url{https://github.com/liulingbo918/ATFM}}.
Adaptive traffic signal control plays a significant role in the construction of smart cities. This task is challenging because of many essential factors, such as cooperation among neighboring intersections and dynamic traffic scenarios. First, to facilitate cooperation of traffic signals, existing work adopts graph neural networks to incorporate the temporal and spatial influences of the surrounding intersections into the target intersection, where spatial-temporal information is used separately. However, one drawback of these methods is that the spatial-temporal correlations are not adequately exploited to obtain a better control scheme. Second, in a dynamic traffic environment, the historical state of the intersection is also critical for predicting future signal switching. Previous work mainly solves this problem using the current intersections state, neglecting the fact that traffic flow is continuously changing both spatially and temporally and does not handle the historical state. In this paper, we propose a novel neural network framework named DynSTGAT, which integrates dynamic historical state into a new spatial-temporal graph attention network to address the above two problems. More specifically, our DynSTGAT model employs a novel multi-head graph attention mechanism, which aims to adequately exploit the joint relations of spatial-temporal information. Then, to efficiently utilize the historical state information of the intersection, we design a sequence model with the temporal convolutional network (TCN) to capture the historical information and further merge it with the spatial information to improve its performance. Extensive experiments conducted in the multi-intersection scenario on synthetic data and real-world data confirm that our method can achieve superior performance in travel time and throughput against the state-of-the-art methods.
Short-term traffic forecasting based on deep learning methods, especially recurrent neural networks (RNN), has received much attention in recent years. However, the potential of RNN-based models in traffic forecasting has not yet been fully exploited in terms of the predictive power of spatial-temporal data and the capability of handling missing data. In this paper, we focus on RNN-based models and attempt to reformulate the way to incorporate RNN and its variants into traffic prediction models. A stacked bidirectional and unidirectional LSTM network architecture (SBU-LSTM) is proposed to assist the design of neural network structures for traffic state forecasting. As a key component of the architecture, the bidirectional LSTM (BDLSM) is exploited to capture the forward and backward temporal dependencies in spatiotemporal data. To deal with missing values in spatial-temporal data, we also propose a data imputation mechanism in the LSTM structure (LSTM-I) by designing an imputation unit to infer missing values and assist traffic prediction. The bidirectional version of LSTM-I is incorporated in the SBU-LSTM architecture. Two real-world network-wide traffic state datasets are used to conduct experiments and published to facilitate further traffic prediction research. The prediction performance of multiple types of multi-layer LSTM or BDLSTM models is evaluated. Experimental results indicate that the proposed SBU-LSTM architecture, especially the two-layer BDLSTM network, can achieve superior performance for the network-wide traffic prediction in both accuracy and robustness. Further, comprehensive comparison results show that the proposed data imputation mechanism in the RNN-based models can achieve outstanding prediction performance when the models input data contains different patterns of missing values.
Telecommunication networks play a critical role in modern society. With the arrival of 5G networks, these systems are becoming even more diversified, integrated, and intelligent. Traffic forecasting is one of the key components in such a system, however, it is particularly challenging due to the complex spatial-temporal dependency. In this work, we consider this problem from the aspect of a cellular network and the interactions among its base stations. We thoroughly investigate the characteristics of cellular network traffic and shed light on the dependency complexities based on data collected from a densely populated metropolis area. Specifically, we observe that the traffic shows both dynamic and static spatial dependencies as well as diverse cyclic temporal patterns. To address these complexities, we propose an effective deep-learning-based approach, namely, Spatio-Temporal Hybrid Graph Convolutional Network (STHGCN). It employs GRUs to model the temporal dependency, while capturing the complex spatial dependency through a hybrid-GCN from three perspectives: spatial proximity, functional similarity, and recent trend similarity. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world traffic datasets collected from telecommunication networks. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model in that it consistently outperforms both classical methods and state-of-the-art deep learning models, while being more robust and stable.
Spatial-temporal prediction is a fundamental problem for constructing smart city, which is useful for tasks such as traffic control, taxi dispatching, and environmental policy making. Due to data collection mechanism, it is common to see data collection with unbalanced spatial distributions. For example, some cities may release taxi data for multiple years while others only release a few days of data; some regions may have constant water quality data monitored by sensors whereas some regions only have a small collection of water samples. In this paper, we tackle the problem of spatial-temporal prediction for the cities with only a short period of data collection. We aim to utilize the long-period data from other cities via transfer learning. Different from previous studies that transfer knowledge from one single source city to a target city, we are the first to leverage information from multiple cities to increase the stability of transfer. Specifically, our proposed model is designed as a spatial-temporal network with a meta-learning paradigm. The meta-learning paradigm learns a well-generalized initialization of the spatial-temporal network, which can be effectively adapted to target cities. In addition, a pattern-based spatial-temporal memory is designed to distill long-term temporal information (i.e., periodicity). We conduct extensive experiments on two tasks: traffic (taxi and bike) prediction and water quality prediction. The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model over several competitive baseline models.
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