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Register a new userLearning from Multiple Cities: A Meta-Learning Approach for Spatial-Temporal Prediction
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Spatial-temporal prediction is a fundamental problem for constructing smart city, which is useful for tasks such as traffic control, taxi dispatching, and environmental policy making. Due to data collection mechanism, it is common to see data collection with unbalanced spatial distributions. For example, some cities may release taxi data for multiple years while others only release a few days of data; some regions may have constant water quality data monitored by sensors whereas some regions only have a small collection of water samples. In this paper, we tackle the problem of spatial-temporal prediction for the cities with only a short period of data collection. We aim to utilize the long-period data from other cities via transfer learning. Different from previous studies that transfer knowledge from one single source city to a target city, we are the first to leverage information from multiple cities to increase the stability of transfer. Specifically, our proposed model is designed as a spatial-temporal network with a meta-learning paradigm. The meta-learning paradigm learns a well-generalized initialization of the spatial-temporal network, which can be effectively adapted to target cities. In addition, a pattern-based spatial-temporal memory is designed to distill long-term temporal information (i.e., periodicity). We conduct extensive experiments on two tasks: traffic (taxi and bike) prediction and water quality prediction. The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model over several competitive baseline models.
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As a crucial component in intelligent transportation systems, traffic flow prediction has recently attracted widespread research interest in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) with the increasing availability of massive traffic mobility data. Its key challenge lies in how to integrate diverse factors (such as temporal rules and spatial dependencies) to infer the evolution trend of traffic flow. To address this problem, we propose a unified neural network called Attentive Traffic Flow Machine (ATFM), which can effectively learn the spatial-temporal feature representations of traffic flow with an attention mechanism. In particular, our ATFM is composed of two progressive Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM cite{xingjian2015convolutional}) units connected with a convolutional layer. Specifically, the first ConvLSTM unit takes normal traffic flow features as input and generates a hidden state at each time-step, which is further fed into the connected convolutional layer for spatial attention map inference. The second ConvLSTM unit aims at learning the dynamic spatial-temporal representations from the attentionally weighted traffic flow features. Further, we develop two deep learning frameworks based on ATFM to predict citywide short-term/long-term traffic flow by adaptively incorporating the sequential and periodic data as well as other external influences. Extensive experiments on two standard benchmarks well demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method for traffic flow prediction. Moreover, to verify the generalization of our method, we also apply the customized framework to forecast the passenger pickup/dropoff demands in traffic prediction and show its superior performance. Our code and data are available at {color{blue}url{https://github.com/liulingbo918/ATFM}}.
A Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) uses a constellation of satellites around the earth for accurate navigation, timing, and positioning. Natural phenomena like space weather introduce irregularities in the Earths ionosphere, disrupting the propagation of the radio signals that GNSS relies upon. Such disruptions affect both the amplitude and the phase of the propagated waves. No physics-based model currently exists to predict the time and location of these disruptions with sufficient accuracy and at relevant scales. In this paper, we focus on predicting the phase fluctuations of GNSS radio waves, known as phase scintillations. We propose a novel architecture and loss function to predict 1 hour in advance the magnitude of phase scintillations within a time window of plus-minus 5 minutes with state-of-the-art performance.
Meta-learning algorithms aim to learn two components: a model that predicts targets for a task, and a base learner that quickly updates that model when given examples from a new task. This additional level of learning can be powerful, but it also creates another potential source for overfitting, since we can now overfit in either the model or the base learner. We describe both of these forms of metalearning overfitting, and demonstrate that they appear experimentally in common meta-learning benchmarks. We then use an information-theoretic framework to discuss meta-augmentation, a way to add randomness that discourages the base learner and model from learning trivial solutions that do not generalize to new tasks. We demonstrate that meta-augmentation produces large complementary benefits to recently proposed meta-regularization techniques.
In an intelligent transportation system, the key problem of traffic forecasting is how to extract the periodic temporal dependencies and complex spatial correlation. Current state-of-the-art methods for traffic flow forecasting are based on graph architectures and sequence learning models, but they do not fully exploit spatial-temporal dynamic information in the traffic system. Specifically, the temporal dependence of the short-range is diluted by recurrent neural networks, and the existing sequence model ignores local spatial information because the convolution operation uses global average pooling. Besides, there will be some traffic accidents during the transitions of objects causing congestion in the real world that trigger increased prediction deviation. To overcome these challenges, we propose the Spatial-Temporal Conv-sequence Learning (STCL), in which a focused temporal block uses unidirectional convolution to effectively capture short-term periodic temporal dependence, and a spatial-temporal fusion module is able to extract the dependencies of both interactions and decrease the feature dimensions. Moreover, the accidents features impact on local traffic congestion, and position encoding is employed to detect anomalies in complex traffic situations. We conduct a large number of experiments on real-world tasks and verify the effectiveness of our proposed method.
Meta learning is a promising solution to few-shot learning problems. However, existing meta learning methods are restricted to the scenarios where training and application tasks share the same out-put structure. To obtain a meta model applicable to the tasks with new structures, it is required to collect new training data and repeat the time-consuming meta training procedure. This makes them inefficient or even inapplicable in learning to solve heterogeneous few-shot learning tasks. We thus develop a novel and principled HierarchicalMeta Learning (HML) method. Different from existing methods that only focus on optimizing the adaptability of a meta model to similar tasks, HML also explicitly optimizes its generalizability across heterogeneous tasks. To this end, HML first factorizes a set of similar training tasks into heterogeneous ones and trains the meta model over them at two levels to maximize adaptation and generalization performance respectively. The resultant model can then directly generalize to new tasks. Extensive experiments on few-shot classification and regression problems clearly demonstrate the superiority of HML over fine-tuning and state-of-the-art meta learning approaches in terms of generalization across heterogeneous tasks.
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