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Register a new userIdentifying highly influential travellers for spreading disease on a public transport system
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Ahmad El Shoghri
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The recent outbreak of a novel coronavirus and its rapid spread underlines the importance of understanding human mobility. Enclosed spaces, such as public transport vehicles (e.g. buses and trains), offer a suitable environment for infections to spread widely and quickly. Investigating the movement patterns and the physical encounters of individuals on public transit systems is thus critical to understand the drivers of infectious disease outbreaks. For instance previous work has explored the impact of recurring patterns inherent in human mobility on disease spread, but has not considered other dimensions such as the distance travelled or the number of encounters. Here, we consider multiple mobility dimensions simultaneously to uncover critical information for the design of effective intervention strategies. We use one month of citywide smart card travel data collected in Sydney, Australia to classify bus passengers along three dimensions, namely the degree of exploration, the distance travelled and the number of encounters. Additionally, we simulate disease spread on the transport network and trace the infection paths. We investigate in detail the transmissions between the classified groups while varying the infection probability and the suspension time of pathogens. Our results show that characterizing individuals along multiple dimensions simultaneously uncovers a complex infection interplay between the different groups of passengers, that would remain hidden when considering only a single dimension. We also identify groups that are more influential than others given specific disease characteristics, which can guide containment and vaccination efforts.
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Outbreaks of infectious diseases present a global threat to human health and are considered a major health-care challenge. One major driver for the rapid spatial spread of diseases is human mobility. In particular, the travel patterns of individuals determine their spreading potential to a great extent. These travel behaviors can be captured and modelled using novel location-based data sources, e.g., smart travel cards, social media, etc. Previous studies have shown that individuals who cannot be characterized by their most frequently visited locations spread diseases farther and faster; however, these studies are based on GPS data and mobile call records which have position uncertainty and do not capture explicit contacts. It is unclear if the same conclusions hold for large scale real-world transport networks. In this paper, we investigate how mobility patterns impact disease spread in a large-scale public transit network of empirical data traces. In contrast to previous findings, our results reveal that individuals with mobility patterns characterized by their most frequently visited locations and who typically travel large distances pose the highest spreading risk.
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Multiple scales in metapopulations can give rise to paradoxical behaviour: in a conceptual model for a public goods game, the species associated with a fitness cost due to the public good production can be stabilised in the well-mixed limit due to the mere existence of these scales. The scales in this model involve a length scale corresponding to separate patches, coupled by mobility, and separate time scales for reproduction and interaction with a local environment. Contrary to the well-mixed high mobility limit, we find that for low mobilities, the interaction rate progressively stabilises this species due to stochastic effects, and that the formation of spatial patterns is not crucial for this stabilisation.
Identifying influential nodes that can jointly trigger the maximum influence spread in networks is a fundamental problem in many applications such as viral marketing, online advertising, and disease control. Most existing studies assume that social influence is static and they fail to capture the dynamics of influence in reality. In this work, we address the dynamic influence challenge by designing efficient streaming methods that can identify influential nodes from highly dynamic node interaction streams. We first propose a general time-decaying dynamic interaction network (TDN) model to model node interaction streams with the ability to smoothly discard outdated data. Based on the TDN model, we design three algorithms, i.e., SieveADN, BasicReduction, and HistApprox. SieveADN identifies influential nodes from a special kind of TDNs with efficiency. BasicReduction uses SieveADN as a basic building block to identify influential nodes from general TDNs. HistApprox significantly improves the efficiency of BasicReduction. More importantly, we theoretically show that all three algorithms enjoy constant factor approximation guarantees. Experiments conducted on various real interaction datasets demonstrate that our approach finds near-optimal solutions with speed at least $5$ to $15$ times faster than baseline methods.
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