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A gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), which aggregates a collection of single weak learners (i.e. decision trees), is widely used for data mining tasks. Because GBDT inherits the good performance from its ensemble essence, much attention has been drawn to the optimization of this model. With its popularization, an increasing need for model interpretation arises. Besides the commonly used feature importance as a global interpretation, feature contribution is a local measure that reveals the relationship between a specific instance and the related output. This work focuses on the local interpretation and proposes an unified computation mechanism to get the instance-level feature contributions for GBDT in any version. Practicality of this mechanism is validated by the listed experiments as well as applications in real industry scenarios.
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In Bayesian classification, it is important to establish a probabilistic model for each class for likelihood estimation. Most of the previous methods modeled the probability distribution in the whole sample space. However, real-world problems are usually too complex to model in the whole sample space; some fundamental assumptions are required to simplify the global model, for example, the class conditional independence assumption for naive Bayesian classification. In this paper, with the insight that the distribution in a local sample space should be simpler than that in the whole sample space, a local probabilistic model established for a local region is expected much simpler and can relax the fundamental assumptions that may not be true in the whole sample space. Based on these advantages we propose establishing local probabilistic models for Bayesian classification. In addition, a Bayesian classifier adopting a local probabilistic model can even be viewed as a generalized local classification model; by tuning the size of the local region and the corresponding local model assumption, a fitting model can be established for a particular classification problem. The experimental results on several real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of local probabilistic models for Bayesian classification.
Counterfactuals, serving as one of the emerging type of model interpretations, have recently received attention from both researchers and practitioners. Counterfactual explanations formalize the exploration of ``what-if scenarios, and are an instance of example-based reasoning using a set of hypothetical data samples. Counterfactuals essentially show how the model decision alters with input perturbations. Existing methods for generating counterfactuals are mainly algorithm-based, which are time-inefficient and assume the same counterfactual universe for different queries. To address these limitations, we propose a Model-based Counterfactual Synthesizer (MCS) framework for interpreting machine learning models. We first analyze the model-based counterfactual process and construct a base synthesizer using a conditional generative adversarial net (CGAN). To better approximate the counterfactual universe for those rare queries, we novelly employ the umbrella sampling technique to conduct the MCS framework training. Besides, we also enhance the MCS framework by incorporating the causal dependence among attributes with model inductive bias, and validate its design correctness from the causality identification perspective. Experimental results on several datasets demonstrate the effectiveness as well as efficiency of our proposed MCS framework, and verify the advantages compared with other alternatives.
One of the challenges in model-based control of stochastic dynamical systems is that the state transition dynamics are involved, and it is not easy or efficient to make good-quality predictions of the states. Moreover, there are not many representational models for the majority of autonomous systems, as it is not easy to build a compact model that captures the entire dynamical subtleties and uncertainties. In this work, we present a hierarchical Bayesian linear regression model with local features to learn the dynamics of a micro-robotic system as well as two simpler examples, consisting of a stochastic mass-spring damper and a stochastic double inverted pendulum on a cart. The model is hierarchical since we assume non-stationary priors for the model parameters. These non-stationary priors make the model more flexible by imposing priors on the priors of the model. To solve the maximum likelihood (ML) problem for this hierarchical model, we use the variational expectation maximization (EM) algorithm, and enhance the procedure by introducing hidden target variables. The algorithm yields parsimonious model structures, and consistently provides fast and accurate predictions for all our examples involving large training and test sets. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the method in learning stochastic dynamics, which makes it suitable for future use in a paradigm, such as model-based reinforcement learning, to compute optimal control policies in real time.
For sake of reliability, it is necessary for models in real-world applications to be both powerful and globally interpretable. Simple classifiers, e.g., Logistic Regression (LR), are globally interpretable, but not powerful enough to model complex nonlinear interactions among features in tabular data. Meanwhile, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have shown great effectiveness for modeling tabular data, but is not globally interpretable. In this work, we find local piece-wise interpretations in DNN of a specific feature are usually inconsistent in different samples, which is caused by feature interactions in the hidden layers. Accordingly, we can design an automatic feature crossing method to find feature interactions in DNN, and use them as cross features in LR. We give definition of the interpretation inconsistency in DNN, based on which a novel feature crossing method called DNN2LR is proposed. Extensive experiments have been conducted on four public datasets and two real-world datasets. The final model, i.e., a LR model empowered with cross features, generated by DNN2LR can outperform the complex DNN model, as well as several state-of-the-art feature crossing methods. The experimental results strongly verify the effectiveness and efficiency of DNN2LR, especially on real-world datasets with large numbers of feature fields.
Data augmentation by mixing samples, such as Mixup, has widely been used typically for classification tasks. However, this strategy is not always effective due to the gap between augmented samples for training and original samples for testing. This gap may prevent a classifier from learning the optimal decision boundary and increase the generalization error. To overcome this problem, we propose an alternative framework called Data Interpolating Prediction (DIP). Unlike common data augmentations, we encapsulate the sample-mixing process in the hypothesis class of a classifier so that train and test samples are treated equally. We derive the generalization bound and show that DIP helps to reduce the original Rademacher complexity. Also, we empirically demonstrate that DIP can outperform existing Mixup.
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