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The breeding method is a computationally cheap procedure to generate initial conditions for ensemble forecasting which project onto relevant synoptic growing modes. Ensembles of bred vectors, however, often lack diversity and align with the leading Lyapunov vector, which severely impacts their statistical reliability. In previous work we developed stochastically perturbed bred vectors (SPBVs) and random draw bred vectors (RDBVs) in the context of multi-scale systems. Here we explore when this method can be extended to systems without scale separation, and examine the performance of the stochastically modified bred vectors in the single scale Lorenz 96 model. In particular, we show that the performance of SPBVs crucially depends on the degree of localisation of the bred vectors. It is found that, contrary to the case of multi-scale systems, localisation is detrimental for applications of SPBVs in systems without scale-separation when initialised from assimilated data. In the case of weakly localised bred vectors, however, ensembles of SPBVs constitute a reliable ensemble with improved ensemble forecasting skills compared to classical bred vectors, while still preserving the low computational cost of the breeding method. RDBVs are shown to have superior forecast skill and form a reliable ensemble in weakly localised situations, but in situations when they are strongly localised they do not constitute a reliable ensemble and are over-dispersive.
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We present analytical expressions for the time-dependent and stationary probability distributions corresponding to a stochastically perturbed one-dimensional flow with critical points, in two physically relevant situations: delayed evolution, in which the flow alternates with a quiescent state in which the variate remains frozen at its current value for random intervals of time; and interrupted evolution, in which the variate is also re-set in the quiescent state to a random value drawn from a fixed distribution. In the former case, the effect of the delay upon the first passage time statistics is analyzed. In the latter case, the conditions under which an extended stationary distribution can exist as a consequence of the competition between an attractor in the flow and the random re-setting are examined. We elucidate the role of the normalization condition in eliminating the singularities arising from the unstable critical points of the flow, and present a number of representative examples. A simple formula is obtained for the stationary distribution and interpreted physically. A similar interpretation is also given for the known formula for the stationary distribution in a full-fledged dichotomous flow.
The escape rate of a stochastic dynamical system can be found as an expansion in powers of the noise strength. In previous work the coefficients of such an expansion for a one-dimensional map were fitted to a general form containing a few parameters. These parameters were found to be related to the fractal structure of the repeller of the system. The parameter alpha, the noise dimension, remains to be interpreted. This report presents new data for alpha showing that the relation to the dimensions is more complicated than predicted in earlier work and oscillates as a function of the map parameter, in contrast to other dimension-like quantities.
Replication of single-stranded RNA virus can be complicated, compared to that of double-stranded virus, as it require production of intermediate antigenomic strands that then serve as template for the genomic-sense strands. Moreover, for ssRNA viruses, there is a variability of the molecular mechanism by which genomic strands can be replicated. A combination of such mechanisms can also occur: a fraction of the produced progeny may result from a stamping-machine type of replication that uses the parental genome as template, whereas others may result from the replication of progeny genomes. F. Mart{i}nez et al. and J. Sardany{e}s at al. suggested a deterministic ssRNA virus intracellular replication model that allows for the variability in the replication mechanisms. To explore how stochasticity can affect this model principal properties, in this paper we consider the stability of a stochastically perturbed model of ssRNA virus replication within a cell. Using the direct Lyapunov method, we found sufficient conditions for the stability in probability of equilibrium states for this model. This result confirms that this heterogeneous model of single-stranded RNA virus replication is stable with respect to stochastic perturbations of the environment.
Perturbed graphic matroids are binary matroids that can be obtained from a graphic matroid by adding a noise of small rank. More precisely, r-rank perturbed graphic matroid M is a binary matroid that can be represented in the form I +P, where I is the incidence matrix of some graph and P is a binary matrix of rank at most r. Such matroids naturally appear in a number of theoretical and applied settings. The main motivation behind our work is an attempt to understand which parameterized algorithms for various problems on graphs could be lifted to perturbed graphic matroids. We study the parameterized complexity of a natural generalization (for matroids) of the following fundamental problems on graphs: Steiner Tree and Multiway Cut. In this generalization, called the Space Cover problem, we are given a binary matroid M with a ground set E, a set of terminals Tsubseteq E, and a non-negative integer k. The task is to decide whether T can be spanned by a subset of Esetminus T of size at most k. We prove that on graphic matroid perturbations, for every fixed r, Space Cover is fixed-parameter tractable parameterized by k. On the other hand, the problem becomes W[1]-hard when parameterized by r+k+|T| and it is NP-complete for rleq 2 and |T|leq 2. On cographic matroids, that are the duals of graphic matroids, Space Cover generalizes another fundamental and well-studied problem, namely Multiway Cut. We show that on the duals of perturbed graphic matroids the Space Cover problem is fixed-parameter tractable parameterized by r+k.
The classical approach for studying atmospheric variability is based on defining a background state and studying the linear stability of the small fluctuations around such a state. Weakly non-linear theories can be constructed using higher order expansions terms. While these methods have undoubtedly great value for elucidating the relevant physical processes, they are unable to follow the dynamics of a turbulent atmosphere. We provide a first example of extension of the classical stability analysis to a non-linearly evolving quasi-geostrophic flow. The so-called covariant Lyapunov vectors (CLVs) provide a covariant basis describing the directions of exponential expansion and decay of perturbations to the non-linear trajectory of the flow. We use such a formalism to re-examine the basic barotropic and baroclinic processes of the atmosphere with a quasi-geostrophic beta-plane two-layer model in a periodic channel driven by a forced meridional temperature gradient $Delta T$. We explore three settings of $Delta T$, representative of relatively weak turbulence, well-developed turbulence, and intermediate conditions. We construct the Lorenz energy cycle for each CLV describing the energy exchanges with the background state. A positive baroclinic conversion rate is a necessary but not sufficient condition of instability. Barotropic instability is present only for few very unstable CLVs for large values of $Delta T$. Slowly growing and decaying hydrodynamic Lyapunov modes closely mirror the properties of the background flow. Following classical necessary conditions for barotropic/baroclinic instability, we find a clear relationship between the properties of the eddy fluxes of a CLV and its instability. CLVs with positive baroclinic conversion seem to form a set of modes for constructing a reduced model of the atmosphere dynamics.
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