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Register a new userQTIP: Quick simulation-based adaptation of Traffic model per Incident Parameters
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Current data-driven traffic prediction models are usually trained with large datasets, e.g. several months of speeds and flows. Such models provide very good fit for ordinary road conditions, but often fail just when they are most needed: when traffic suffers a sudden and significant disruption, such as a road incident. In this work, we describe QTIP: a simulation-based framework for quasi-instantaneous adaptation of prediction models upon traffic disruption. In a nutshell, QTIP performs real-time simulations of the affected road for multiple scenarios, analyzes the results, and suggests a change to an ordinary prediction model accordingly. QTIP constructs the simulated scenarios per properties of the incident, as conveyed by immediate distress signals from affected vehicles. Such real-time signals are provided by In-Vehicle Monitor Systems, which are becoming increasingly prevalent world-wide. We experiment QTIP in a case study of a Danish motorway, and the results show that QTIP can improve traffic prediction in the first critical minutes of road incidents.
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Deep neural networks have excelled on a wide range of problems, from vision to language and game playing. Neural networks very gradually incorporate information into weights as they process data, requiring very low learning rates. If the training distribution shifts, the network is slow to adapt, and when it does adapt, it typically performs badly on the training distribution before the shift. Our method, Memory-based Parameter Adaptation, stores examples in memory and then uses a context-based lookup to directly modify the weights of a neural network. Much higher learning rates can be used for this local adaptation, reneging the need for many iterations over similar data before good predictions can be made. As our method is memory-based, it alleviates several shortcomings of neural networks, such as catastrophic forgetting, fast, stable acquisition of new knowledge, learning with an imbalanced class labels, and fast learning during evaluation. We demonstrate this on a range of supervised tasks: large-scale image classification and language modelling.
Information theoretic criteria (ITC) have been widely adopted in engineering and statistics for selecting, among an ordered set of candidate models, the one that better fits the observed sample data. The selected model minimizes a penalized likelihood metric, where the penalty is determined by the criterion adopted. While rules for choosing a penalty that guarantees a consistent estimate of the model order are known, theoretical tools for its design with finite samples have never been provided in a general setting. In this paper, we study model order selection for finite samples under a design perspective, focusing on the generalized information criterion (GIC), which embraces the most common ITC. The theory is general, and as case studies we consider: a) the problem of estimating the number of signals embedded in additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) by using multiple sensors; b) model selection for the general linear model (GLM), which includes e.g. the problem of estimating the number of sinusoids in AWGN. The analysis reveals a trade-off between the probabilities of overestimating and underestimating the order of the model. We then propose to design the GIC penalty to minimize underestimation while keeping the overestimation probability below a specified level. For the considered problems, this method leads to analytical derivation of the optimal penalty for a given sample size. A performance comparison between the penalty optimized GIC and common AIC and BIC is provided, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed design strategy.
Many domains of science have developed complex simulations to describe phenomena of interest. While these simulations provide high-fidelity models, they are poorly suited for inference and lead to challenging inverse problems. We review the rapidly developing field of simulation-based inference and identify the forces giving new momentum to the field. Finally, we describe how the frontier is expanding so that a broad audience can appreciate the profound change these developments may have on science.
In machine learning, the domain adaptation problem arrives when the test (target) and the train (source) data are generated from different distributions. A key applied issue is thus the design of algorithms able to generalize on a new distribution, for which we have no label information. We focus on learning classification models defined as a weighted majority vote over a set of real-val ued functions. In this context, Germain et al. (2013) have shown that a measure of disagreement between these functions is crucial to control. The core of this measure is a theoretical bound--the C-bound (Lacasse et al., 2007)--which involves the disagreement and leads to a well performing majority vote learning algorithm in usual non-adaptative supervised setting: MinCq. In this work, we propose a framework to extend MinCq to a domain adaptation scenario. This procedure takes advantage of the recent perturbed variation divergence between distributions proposed by Harel and Mannor (2012). Justified by a theoretical bound on the target risk of the vote, we provide to MinCq a target sample labeled thanks to a perturbed variation-based self-labeling focused on the regions where the source and target marginals appear similar. We also study the influence of our self-labeling, from which we deduce an original process for tuning the hyperparameters. Finally, our framework called PV-MinCq shows very promising results on a rotation and translation synthetic problem.
Identifying tire and vehicle parameters is an essential step in designing control and planning algorithms for autonomous vehicles. This paper proposes a new method: Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), a modern interpretation of Approximate Bayesian Computation methods (ABC) for parameter identification. The simulation-based inference is an emerging method in the machine learning literature and has proven to yield accurate results for many parameter sets in complex problems. We demonstrate in this paper that it can handle the identification of highly nonlinear vehicle dynamics parameters and gives accurate estimates of the parameters for the governing equations.
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